By: David Gautieri, founder of Guru Fantasy World
Each week here at Fantasy In Frames, we’ll take a look at players who are owned in less than 50% of ESPN leagues. Each set of players is ranked according to how hard you’ll have to squint in order to see their potential value.
QUARTERBACK
Ryan Tannehill (15.3%)
Look out! Ryan Tannehill is playing like an absolute madman. Multiple touchdowns in every game since taking over as starter, including four total touchdowns (two rushing) this past week. 35+ yards rushing in three straight. 72.1% completion percentage on the year. 4-1 record. Do I need to say any more? Indianapolis, Oakland, and Houston are his next three matchups.
Daniel Jones (33.1%)
Danny Dimes has at least one passing touchdown in every game as a starter, as well as at least two rushing attempts. This has given him a relatively high floor, even as a rookie. His only game as a starter with single-digit fantasy points came against New England. He faces slightly above-average defenses the next two weeks (GB & PHI) but could be a major game-changer in Weeks 15 & 16 when he faces the Dolphins & Redskins.
Matt Stafford (44.3%)
Stafford is the best quarterback on this week’s list, hands down – when healthy. The problem is that we don’t know when or if he’s going to be healthy enough to play again this season. Plus, Detroit has essentially already been eliminated from playoff contention, so they could keep him out even if he is healthy enough to play. But let’s take a minute to appreciate what he was doing before missing time with his latest ailment. His last 3 games: 364 yards, 4 touchdowns; 342 yards, 3 touchdowns; & 406 yards, 3 touchdowns. Plus, if he does return, he faces Tampa Bay in Week 15, who have been atrocious against the pass. He makes the most sense if you’re looking for a stash.
Sam Darnold (18.9%)
With 608 yards and 6 passing touchdowns in his last two games, Darnold’s heating up. Look for him to stay hot against Cincinnati and Miami. A solid streamer if you need a Week 13 win to make the playoffs.
Kyle Allen (13.5%)
Like Darnold, Allen helps if you’re battling for a playoff spot or in need of a streamer for the first round of the fantasy playoffs. He’s relatively hot, coming off a big divisional performance in New Orleans where he threw for 3 touchdowns without turning the ball over. He faces Washington and Atlanta (6th most fantasy points allowed to QB’s) the next two weeks.
Jeff Driskel (29.3%)
In his 3 starts this season, Driskel has rushed for 151 yards and 1 rushing touchdown, which has equated to 6.6 fantasy points per-game from just his legs. This means that he doesn’t need to do much with his arm in order to have a successful fantasy outing. He’s a major risk the next two weeks against Chicago and Minnesota, but if Stafford doesn’t return this season, Driskel carries major streaming potential in a Week 15 matchup with Tampa.
Ryan Fitzpatrick (5.1%)
You’re not touching him in 1QB leagues, but in 2QB leagues, he definitely deserves streaming consideration. The threat (if you can call it that) of Josh Rosen will continue to loom, but Fitzpatrick has started 7 straight games and appears poised to finish out the season. His fantasy playoff schedule consists of matchups against the Jets, Giants, and Bengals – matchups which should pretty much speak for themselves.
RUNNING BACK
Jonathan Williams (29.1%)
After Jonathan Williams took 13 carries for 116 yards (and caught one pass for another 31 yards) when Marlon Mack went down, it seemed as if he’d earned the right to carry the load in Mack’s absence, but Jordan Wilkins’ return clouded the picture heading into Week 12. The Colts pretty much cleared the air by giving Williams the ball 29 times, which he took for 121 total yards and a TD. Wilkins played one offensive snap. You could chalk it up to Wilkins not being healthy enough, but the Colts had no problem sending him out there for 12 special teams snaps. Until further notice, this is Williams’ backfield going forward. He’s a priority add.
Bo Scarbrough (48.4%)
Bo knows. So does Matt Patricia. I’m not sure exactly what it is that they know, but whatever it is has translated to a heavy workload for Scarbrough. With 32 carries over the last 2 weeks, it’s his backfield now. He might not ever catch a single pass, and the Chicago matchup this week isn’t exactly great, but we’ve seen this year that the way to attack the Chicago defense is to run it right at them. Don’t be surprised if Scarbrough is given 20+ carries this week.
Rashaad Penny (28.6%)
Penny is loaded with upside, which is why he was, on average, an 8th round fantasy pick this year, despite having a very small sample size of proven production. It could be just another blip on the radar for Penny, and we can’t recommend starting him until he does it again, but he’s definitely worth a stash. Chris Carson is one fumble away from an extended benching.
Raheem Mostert (14.8%)
Mostert hasn’t been given as much work as Tevin Coleman or Matt Breida this season, but he’s been far more explosive, averaging 6.2 yards per-touch. He’s scored double-digit fantasy points in every game in which he’s scored a touchdown. If Breida misses another week, there’s a chance that Mostert could see an extended workload – possibly in garbage time – especially if the 49ers fall behind the Ravens by a significant margin.
Alexander Mattison (17.5%)
Mattison can’t help you this week – but he could be a league-winning stash if Dalvin Cook were to miss time down the stretch. With Cook’s injury history, Mattison could be the single most valuable handcuff to own this year.
Benny Snell Jr. (3.5%)
At this point we can’t really be sure whether Snell surpassing Jaylen Samuels is a permanent change or the result of one week’s game plan. Nor can we be sure when – or if – James Conner returns. That makes Snell’s long-term outlook quite murky. And that’s not even factoring in the presence of Kerrith Whyte Jr. But, Snell could definitely provide some immediate help with matchups against Cleveland and Arizona the next two weeks. With 22 touches last week to Samuels’ 5, it appears to be his gig as long as Conner is out.
Jay Ajayi (10.4%)
It’s tough to see any real long-term value here, no matter how hard you squint. But, if Jordan Howard is inactive for one more week, Ajayi has one of the softest matchups possible – the Miami Dolphins. As most of you know, Ajayi made his name as a Dolphin before they shipped him to Philly in a mid-season trade, so there’s a definite “Revenge Game” narrative going on here. Don’t be surprised if the Philadelphia coaching staff finds a way to get Ajayi into the endzone.
Chris Thompson (14.3%)
A deep-league stash who’s unlikely to offer immediate production. But if Thompson does return at some point, there’s certainly value to be found as the 3rd down back on a team that is consistently playing from behind.
Wayne Gallman (5.9%)
Like Thompson, Gallman is strictly a deep-league stash. Saquon Barkley is currently playing, but does anyone outside of the Giants organization know if he’s actually anywhere close to 100% healthy? Due to Barkley’s long-term importance to the organization, there’s a solid chance he gets shut down at some point as the team falls further and further out of contention.
WIDE RECEIVER
A.J. Brown (15.4%)
Ryan Tannehill clearly favors Brown over Corey Davis. He’s the team’s No. 1 WR right now. That makes him the one and only No. 1 WR for a team who is owned in less than 50% of ESPN leagues. Every single other team’s top WR is owned in more than half of ESPN leagues. With the way Ryan Tannehill is slinging it, there’s really no excuse to justify Brown’s lack of ownership.
Deebo Samuel (42.7%)
Samuel isn’t going to see the same kind of volume that he saw when George Kittle and Emmanuel Sanders were out, but he is a big-play just waiting to happen. He only had two targets against the Packers on Sunday night, but he caught them both – one for a 42-yard touchdown. There’s a chance that San Fran could be playing from behind the next two weeks against Baltimore and New Orleans. That could lead to an increase in targets for Samuel and the potential for solid production.
Randall Cobb (42.3%)
Cobb is on an absolute tear right now with 6 catches or 85+ yards in 4 straight games. He has at least 2 catches in every single game he’s played in this year, and at least 7 fantasy points in 8 out of 10 games. He’s the best bet to give you something each week.
Chris Conley (17.9%)
The Jaguars are throwing the ball a lot, with 47 & 48 passing attempts the past two games. Expect that continue this week against a Tampa Bay defense that has been dominant against the run but more than susceptible against the pass. Conley is the ideal streamer for those needing a Week 13 win in order to make the playoffs.
Robby Anderson (45.1%)
Robby Anderson has been a major disappointment this year, and it feels dirty recommending him to anyone. But he does have a touchdown in two straight games, plus two terrific matchups against Cincinnati and Miami the next two weeks.
Auden Tate (17.3%)
The luster of rostering Tate has worn off since Ryan Finley replaced Andy Dalton, but Tate has continued to be out there on the field. He’s actually led the WR’s in snaps for 2 of the last 3 games. He showed a legitimate connection with Dalton earlier in the year, and should start to regain some of his appeal with Dalton now back under center.
James Washington (21.6%)
The man they call “Duck” wasn’t throwing many. Devlin Hodges’ first two passes against Cincinnati were pretty-looking deep shots to Washington, the second of which Washington caught for a 79-yard touchdown. With Washington being the team’s clear deep-threat, averaging 17.9 yards per-catch, and having at least 3 catches and 49 yards in 4 straight games, expect him to continue to eat with Hodges under center.
Darius Slayton (23.3%)
Slayton was expected to lose some value with Sterling Shepard returning, but he seems to have retained his role as a deep-threat, catching 4 of 7 targets for 67 yards. He could see a ding once Evan Engram returns, but the return of Sterling Shepard shouldn’t be looked at as the end to Slayton’s value. He’s prone to the occasional blow-up game, and his quarterback trusts him. He also faces Philly, Miami, and Washington in the fantasy playoffs.
Mecole Hardman (17.3%)
Hardman’s value hinges on the health of Tyreek Hill and Sammy Watkins. But with Hill dealing with a hamstring injury, and Watkins as brittle as they come, Hardman is definitely worth a stash.
Russell Gage (4.0%)
The Falcons have needed someone to step up after trading away Mo Sanu and losing Devonta Freeman and Austin Hooper to injuries. Gage has been that guy. He’s averaging 7 targets, 5.25 receptions, and 47 yards in his last 4 games.
TIGHT END
Jacob Hollister (43.0%)
Hollister was a hot add after two monster weeks, but he let down his owners this past week by producing just 2 catches for 22 yards. However, anyone who was watching the game saw Russell Wilson sail a wide-open touchdown over Hollister’s head and into the back of the end zone. A score there would have given Hollister 4 touchdowns in the last 3 games, with at least one in 3 straight. He’s got a definite role in the redzone and should continue to be plugged into lineups going forward.
Dallas Goedert (37.9%)
Goedert is playing on over 75% of the snaps and looks like the Eagle’s No. 2 receiver behind Zach Ertz as long as Alshon Jeffery is out. He’s been a bit touchdown-dependent this year but the fact that he went out this past week and caught 7 passes on 8 targets is evidence that his role is growing. He’s a great streamer with matchups against the Dolphins, Giants, and Redskins coming up.
Noah Fant (41.9%)
Brandon Allen held the Broncos offense together in his first two starts. This past week, on the road against a tough Bills defense, the wheels fell off of the wagon as Allen completed just 10-25 passes, for 82 yards. The silver lining is that Fant’s 5 targets gave him a 25% target share in the game. That gives Fant target shares of 20%, 26%, and 25% in Allen’s 3 starts. If Allen has any solid games going forward, Fant is likely to be one of the main beneficiaries.
Ryan Griffin (25.5%)
5 touchdowns in the past 7 games, including a touchdown in 2 straight. 50+ yards in 3 of the past 5. Matchups against Cincinnati and Miami the next two weeks.
Mike Gesicki (9.1%)
Player A: 6’6”, 247 lbs. 4.54 40. 22 bench reps. 41.5-inch vertical.
Player B: 6’4”, 247 lbs. 4.52 40. 18 bench reps. 35-inch vertical.
Player A is Mike Gesicki. Player B? Just some dude from San Fran who may or may not have broken the single-season record for yardage by a TE. Now, is Gesicki the next Kittle? That would be a certifiable No. But the physical tools are definitely there. Gesicki has 6+ targets in 4 straight games, and he faces the Jets, Giants, and Bengals in the fantasy playoffs.
David Njoku (19.8%)
While we’re playing the TE combine results game, here’s Njoku’s:
6’4″, 247 lbs. 4.64 40-yard dash. 21 bench reps. 37.5-inch vertical.
He’s got a first-round pedigree and caught 4 passes for 37 yards and a touchdown in the only game he’s played in this year. It could take him a few weeks to get up to speed, but there’s definitely some upside here.
Delanie Walker (35.0%)
There’s no telling how much time Walker is going to split with Jonnu Smith going forward, but he’s nearing a return and the Titans offense is playing well. He’s a deep-league stash.
Irv Smith Jr. (4.1%)
Don’t just assume that the return of Adam Theilen is going to kill Smith’s fantasy value. He’s currently playing on around 80% of the offensive snaps, and the Vikings will likely continue to rely on 2TE sets, as they have all season. Theilen’s return is more likely to affect Olabisi Johnson than it is to hurt Smith’s value. Smith has at least 3 catches in 5 straight games and has continued to improve his chemistry with quarterback Kirk Cousins.
