Welcome back, #4EYEDfans!
As we rapidly approach the 2020 fantasy season, I have had a lot of IDP questions, most importantly in regards to draft strategy, projections, and what tools we should utilize to improve our overall success.
The main focus here at Fantasy In Frames is to give our readers and listeners the tools they need to learn “How” they should draft, and not just “why”. When it comes to the “How’s”, there are numerous resources to utilize, and over the course of the summer, I will break down my keys to success.
Offensively, when evaluating a players’ potential, the astute players will look at the offensive players’ situation within an offense. For example, a WR on a run-heavy team will most likely have a less aggressive ceiling as one on a pass-happy team. Another example would be the #3 WR on a team that doesn’t run too many 3 wide receiver sets. If you aren’t on the field, you can’t score points. As simple a concept as it should seem, we constantly fail to look at this situation on the defensive side of the ball.
While we take a look at the teams in the NFL that are making a transition from one particular base formation to another one, it is important to understand what impact the change will have on the players.
Teams making the switch from 3-4 to 4-3
Carolina Panthers
The Panthers hired Matt Rhule who brought in Phil Snow to replace Eric Washington, and the changes to the defense were immediate. They brought in Stephen Weatherly at defensive end, Tahir Whitehead at LB, Justin Burris and Eli Apple for secondary help, and used all 7 picks in the 2020 draft on the defensive side of the ball. The draft picks of Derrick Brown (DT), Yetor Gross-Matos (DE), and Jeremy Chinn (S) are all immediate impacts who could all benefit from the multiple formations derived from the base 4-3.
Who’s to benefit?
While DT isn’t the most sought after position in an IDP league, if you are forced to draft a DT, I could see Derrick Brown make an immediate impact. He is definitely a gifted pass rusher as a DT (12.5 sacks at Auburn), but playing alongside Kawann Short should keep the double-teams to a minimum. The true winner is Shaq Thompson. The speedy ILB is going to get a chance to play MLB and finally get out of the shadow of Luke Kuechly. Coming off of his best year statistically (109 combined tackles, 3.5 sacks), Thompson could easily see 120+ tackles, and if Snow brings some of his creative defensive formations to Carolina, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Thompson have some pass rushing opportunities. In the secondary, Justin Chinn is primed for a busy rookie season. While I don’t think he will replicate the 130 tackles that Eric Reid had last year, I do believe that he will be all over the field and someone I would look at late in a dynasty format.
Washington Redskins
Similar to the Panthers, the Redskins overhauled the coaching staff by hiring Ron Rivera, who brought in Jack Del Rio to take over the defensive coordinator position. The Redskins finished 27th last year in points allowed, 27th in yards allowed, the 3rd most plays against, and 31st in rushing defense. Not exactly a season to write home about, but I believe there is optimism abound in Washington! Del Rio will make the Skins his 3rd team as DC, and has had success at both stops along the way. He inherited a Panthers team in 2002 that ranked 31st in yards allowed and 31st in total team rushing defense in 2001 and at the end of 2002 ranked 2nd overall in yards allowed, and 5th in total team rushing defense. His next stop in Denver had similar results, 2nd and 3rd in yards allowed and 3 top 10 rush defenses.
Who’s to benefit?
Unlike the situation in Carolina, the Redskins are truly going to reap the benefits of the switch to the 4-3 on the defensive line, most importantly the right and left defensive end. Montez Sweat and Chase Young are both prototypical 4-3 ends with the collegiate resumes to prove it. Last year Sweat was routinely playing at OLB and resulted in 50 tackles, 7 sacks, and 2 pd’s. Not a bad year at all, but the last time he played in a 4-3 defense, Mississippi State, he recorded 22.5 sacks and 30 TFL in his two years. Chase Young, the top prospect in the 2020 draft, excelled at Ohio State in their 4-3 scheme, where he racked up over 30 sacks and 40 TFL’s in his 3 years on campus. I think the Skins have a sneaky good D-line, with some IDP upside sprinkled in with Jonathan Allen at DT and Landon Collins at S.
Teams switching from 4-3 to 3-4
Jacksonville Jaguars (Maybe???)
While Jacksonville didn’t bring in a new DC, they are looking to change defensive schemes this year. Operating out of the base 4-3 last year, HC Doug Marrone feels that they are best suited for a switch to a base 3-4 given their personnel. Speaking of personnel, the Jags have done quite a bit this offseason to address improvement on the defensive side of the ball. They signed Joe Schobert, who has 3-4 experience, drafted K’lavon Chaisson, who played at OLB in the 2-point stance for LSU, and (as of now) haven’t release, traded or moved on from Yannick Ngakoue.
Who’s to benefit?
In the typical 3-4 base defense, the OLB/EDGE rushers typically accumulate more sacks, but less tackles than in a 4-3. If you are a poor defense, and the Jags are going to be a poor defense, the linebackers should see plenty of action. Joe Schobert, coming off of a season in which he had 130+tackles, is poised to put up big numbers, yet again. Considering that the Jags were so bad against the run last year, I wonder if there is a case to be made for Ronnie Harrison if they elect to bring him up in the box to to help slow the running game.
All of this could be moot if Todd Wash continues to be stubborn and state his case against the switch. While all the rumblings say that Marrone wants to go with the 3-4, it’s Wash’s butt on the line if their is no switch and the defense continues to let them down. Don’t be surprised if we see Wash on the way out and we revisit this 3-4 discussion later in the season
Miami Dolphins
HC Brian Flores has brought in a new DC in Josh Boyer, and with him comes the new look 3-4 defense for the Fins. Miami ranked 32nd last year in points allowed and 30th overall in yards allowed. Needless to say, Boyer has a long road ahead of him. The road has luckily been paved recently with the additions of Byron Jones and Kyle Van Noy. Jones, one of the leagues best CB, and Van Noy are both perfect fits for Flores/Boyer’s 3-4 defense. Jones will largely play man coverage, which Flores ran 61% of the time last year, good for 4th in the NFL. Van Noy is a product of the New England patriots and should pick up the system rather quickly. While this team has way too many holes to fill to be elite overnight, they did add the right pieces to make huge strides in 2020.
Who’s to benefit?
It’s really challenging to look at the worst defense in the league and pick out a player who might shine in a new defensive scheme. With that in mind, if Xavien Howard could return from injury and not have to face punishment for the domestic issue, he would greatly benefit from the added exposure and more balls his way as a result of Byron Jones. He did have 7 INT’s in only 12 games in 2018. Aside from that very miniscule option, there aren’t many viable IDP options in south beach.
