NFC North Boring Winners
Welcome to Week 4 of Boring Players Who Win 4-EYED Championships. Being a hare is cool. But a tortoise wins!
We continue to look at each team for one player who you’ll see in your fantasy football draft and think “I hated drafting him three years ago” and you won’t regret doing so again. Ready steady RBs. Without fail WRs. Too safe TEs. Question-proof QBs. Just call these guys the wheat bread of fantasy players. They’re not fancy meat, artisanal cheese or fancy aioli, but they help bring the balance to your roster sandwich.
May I present your NFC North’s Boring Players Who Win 4-EYED Championships!
Chicago Bears – Tarik “Come On, Really?” Cohen
The pass-catching Chicago running back averaged 2.53 fantasy points per rushing attempt, second behind only James White, but only 1.56 fantasy points per target, dead last in the league. Cohen was the third most targeted RB in 2019, but only amassed 456 receiving yards, which was 10th among RBs. According to Fantasydata.com, Cohen also ranked 49th in total number of yards created by running backs after evading the first tackle. I guess that explains why he’s currently being drafted mid-11th round.
“Gee, Jeremy, that’s not a very compelling argument.” You are correct, dear reader. I’d say this lack of production was largely due to Chicago’s offensive line, which was terrrrrrible in the run game. A key off-season hire for the Bears as offensive line coach Juan Castillo, who brings two decades of experience with the Eagles, Ravens and Bills. During those year, he helped offensive lines clear the way for backs like Brian Westbrook, Lesean McCoy (both in Philly and Buffalo) and Justin Forsett (who racked up over 1200 yards in his first year with Castillo in Baltimore).
Although Cohen is not the lead back in Chicago, he was still on the field for 49.8% of the snaps, the same amount as Mark Ingram in 2019. If he continues to see that snap percentage as the second RB on the depth chart, Cohen could provide some much needed flex value in half-PPR and PPR leagues.
Detroit Lions – Matthew “Snooooooze” Stafford
No, that’s not Matt Stafford singing “Y-M-C-A”. That’s Matt Stafford asking “Why am I currently being drafted as QB14 in the 10th round?” By only 8 games in 2019 due to a season-ending back injury, Stafford’s name has lost its luster this off-season.
That ADP is despite the fact that Stafford amassed 2499 passing yards and 19 TDs in those 8 games. At that pace, he would have finished as the QB3 with 342 fantasy points. Since 2011, Stafford has finished as a top-12 QB all but two times (QB15 in 2014 and QB20 in 2019). Other than injury risk, I see no reason why he can’t return to his 2019 form.
And why is 2019 not a fluke? Stafford has a career average depth of target (aDOT) of 7.9 yards. In Darrell Bevel’s first year as offensive coordinator of the Lions, Stafford had a whopping 10.5 aDOT before his back placed him on injured reserve. With the injury and surgery behind him, Stafford is a great “wait on QB” or streaming QB option this season.
Green Bay Packers – Allen “Like As If” Lazard
Although young and full of talent, many fantasy football players were burned last year from playing Russian roulette with Green Bay wideouts not named Davante Adams. Lazard showed flashes but ultimately disappointed in the second half of the season. Hence, he’s currently being drafted in the 12th round of 12 team leagues.
A receiver drafted in the 12th round as the 56th WR off the board? He’s free! What can you get for free? Looking at catchable targets and aDOT – which puts a premium on those deep, catchable targets full of fantasy goodness – Lazard ranked the as the WR2…in the entire NFL! (H/T to PlayerProfiler.com) Lazard ultimately averaged 6.8 fantasy points per target in 2019, tied with Julio Jones for WR18 and just ahead of Tyreek Hill, D.K. Metcalf and Chris Godwin.
That’s all despite seeing a measly 13.7% of Aaron Rodger’s targets. This year, Geronimo Allison is in Detroit. So, with Green Bay adding no notable receivers in the draft, Lazard affirms his WR2 status behind Davante Adams. Getting a WR2 in the 12th round isn’t common. Getting one who saw 9.2 yards per target (WR25), 2.19 yards per passing route (WR31) is rare. Getting one who has A-A-Ron Rodgers chucking the ball that resulted in Lazard having a top-20 catchable target rate is super rare. Seeing Lazard’s ADP remain so low is a great indicator that people are already lackadaisical for Lazard. Scoop him up!
Minnesota Vikings – Kirk “You OK With That!” Cousins
I’d grimace like that too, Kirk, if I finished as the QB18 with all of that guaranteed money. But fantasy players care not about your Benjamins. What we do care about is new offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak will likely call the same run-heavy offensive scheme as his predecessor Kevin Stefanski, namely because Stefanski was running Kubiak’s scheme.
I can see why the love for Commonplace Cousins isn’t coming home to roost. Currently, he’s being drafted as the QB16 in the 11th round.
Last year, Cousins only attempted 443 passes, placing him near the bottom of the league. But stats can be deceiving. Other QBs in that range include Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen and Jimmy G. Although Cousins doesn’t offer the rushing upside of Lamar or Josh Allen, Cousins can grab fantasy points with his legs. And what Cousins lacks in volume he makes up for in efficiency. According to Fantasydata, he had the 8th highest completion percentage while under pressure, had the 2nd highest protection rate (gotta love a good O-line) and the 9th highest completion percentage on deep passes (20 yards or more in the air).
Cousins has time to throw, throws well under pressure, and completes many of the most valuable passes from a fantasy perspective. There’s certainly risk that 2020 will be a repeat of 2019. But at QB16, there’s little risk to take for Cousins as a 2nd QB for a back-up or 2QB league.
Draft strategy tip: Cousins may struggle the first few weeks against Green Bay, at Indianapolis and against Tennessee (three solid defenses). Before Week 4, grab Cousins off the waiver wire, or trade him away from the disgruntled owner. Weeks 4 to 6 are against defenses ranked in the bottom half of the league in 2019: Texans, Seahawks and Atlanta. Then, drop Cousins in his Week 7 bye or stash him for his Week 9 match-up against the Lions.
I hope all you#4EYEDfans are sufficient bored! See you next time for the AFC South’s Boring Players Who Win 4-EYED Championships!