Welcome, #4EYEDfans to the first installment of IDP In Frames! This week, we will take a look at the landscape of the AFC when it comes to IDP. More specifically, we will take a look at the AFC rookies in a position to make an impact in 2020!
The landscape of fantasy football is ever-changing, especially the IDP segment. Each year, a new draft class comes in and injects some new blood into the league. Just as the offensive side gets some shiny new toys to play with, the defensive side of the ball is blessed with the same rewards. This year was no different! Well, this draft was completely different, since it was during the quarantine period and was all done electronically, but that had no impact on the talent.
When forecasting for success, there are a few key factors that will outline a rookie’s potential for immediate success vs. a more “long-term” approach.
- Playing time: Captain Obvious speaks again. If you can stay on the field, the likelihood of success goes hand in hand. While some players can return dividends with splash plays in limited samples, if I am going to invest in a rookie on the defensive side of the ball, I am going for snap share/playing time.
- Scheme: This is a little more difficult to project providing the ever-changing landscape and coaching carousel. Hypothetically speaking, if a prototypical edge rusher goes to a blitz-heavy scheme, there would seem to be a fit.
- Talent: Looks like Captain Obvious is trying to make a recurring role in this article. While there are players every year that underwhelm the pundits when it comes to athletic ability, yet put up dazzling numbers, a forecast or projection is typically easier when there are underlying metrics to help support the argument.
While these indicators are great tools to utilize, given the strange situation with the COVID-19 and lack of OTAs, I wonder if the rookies on the defensive side of the ball will have a more difficult time adjusting to the defensive schemes.
Immediate Options
Patrick Queen-LB-Baltimore Ravens
At pick 28, the Baltimore Ravens made one of the best picks of the 1st round in filling a massive void in the middle of the Ravens defense after Onwuasor left for the Jets and Josh Bynes to Cincy. With no real threat to occupy snaps, Queen can play in multiple situations. He could command the middle of the field, play weak-side in coverage, and even rush the passer. His 96th percentile 40-time will play electric behind the significant additions of Calais Campbell and Derek Wolfe. Last season at LSU, as a JR, he registered 85 tackles, 12 TFL, and 3.0 sacks. I expect us to see Queen all over the field and should be one of the top-scoring IDP rookies for 2020 and beyond.
Kenneth Murray-LB-Los Angeles Chargers
While Patrick Queen landed in the ideal spot for a rookie, considering the lack of depth, Kenneth Murray landed on a Chargers team who needs LB help. It appears to be Murray’s role for the taking, but with the addition of Nick Vigil, the return of Denzel Perryman, and Drue Tranqull, there will be some stiff competition. Given the draft capital spent to move back up into the 1st round, I would believe that Murray is in line for the bulk of the vacated snaps left by the departure of Thomas Davis Sr. Murray has the sideline to sideline speed (93rd% 40-time, 92nd% burst score, 94th% speed score) and the IQ to take the role and never relinquish it. If Murray were to have his way, he would make the play calling and checks, like he did at Oklahoma. If his 325 career tackles, 36.5 TFL, and 9.5 sacks in 3 years at Oklahoma mean anything, this could be the 1st of many IDP relevant seasons!
Situations to Monitor
A.J. Epenesa-Edge-Buffalo Bills
If you want to talk about edge-rushing rookies in the AFC, I might, let’s talk about AJ Epenesa! The Bills stole him in this years’ draft! I will only use two words to describe his upside..PASS RUSH. Epenesa dominated tackles last year with the bull rush and combination swim/swipe moves to rack up 11.5 sacks and chip in 47 tackles combined. While I genuinely love the pass-rush upside, I have to be cautious with this evaluation due to playing time. Rule #1 from above! With Jerry Hughes and Mario Addison in front of him, and the lack of OTA’s, Epenesa might have a challenging time getting snaps. Primarily playing on the right side, he and Hughes play very similar roles. I see him as a top 10 rookie IDP producer if he can carve out the necessary playing time.
Willie Gay Jr-LB-Kansas City Chiefs
The Super Bowl Champion Kansas City Chiefs went out and addressed their team’s most crucial weakness with the 63rd overall pick. It hasn’t been since Derrick Johnson that the Chiefs have had a potential game-changer at linebacker. Game-changing 4.46 speed is his calling card, but his range, coverage skills, blitzing ability, and the occasional splash play are the traits that could catapult him into a day-1 starter. Spags’ defense is ideal for an LB of his mold. The speed to get to the QB on one of his patented Green Dog Blitzes or to shadow the RB out of the backfield (this years’ schedule includes Ekeler, White, Singletary, Bell, Kamara, Gordon, Gurley, DJ).
Playing time will be the most obvious hurdle to overcome. Gay had some off the field issues at Miss St (academically as well as personally) as well as the potential logjam at LB with Anthony Hitchens and Damien Wilson. I am not worried about either of those two when it comes to their play on the field. If Gay were to take snaps from either of the two, I would expect them to come from Hitchens. Hitchens ranked in the bottom 5 of eligible LB in overall DEF grade, and dead LAST in Rush DEF (per PFF). Finally, let’s take a look at last years’ totals (only 5 gm due to suspension) 28Tackles, 3.5TFL, 1INT, 2FR, 1FF, and 1TD.
K’Lavon Chaisson-Edge-Jacksonville Jaguars
It sure seems like the Jags are looking to get back to the Sacksonvilee moniker that they had back in 2017. Last year they added Josh Allen, and this year they went with another dynamic edge rusher in Chaisson. At the time of the draft, the Jaguars were unsure if they were going to be able to keep Ngakoue, and that same situation holds true as of today. Head Coach Doug Marrone and Defensive Coordinator Todd Walsh have hinted at shifting the defense to a 3-4 defense, and feel that in doing so, Chaisson has a chance to step into the SAM role right away, while keeping Ngakoue. If the Jags transition to the 3-4, they have in Chaisson, an athletically gifted edge rusher with the ability to beat tackles, stuff the run, and drop back into coverage. The red flags with Chaisson all boil down to the fact that he is only 20 years old, and is still a little raw. Gone are the days of the college tackles, but if he continues to learn under Walsh, there is a significant opportunity to be an IDP contributor as soon as this year.
