Fantasy Football Buy-Low/Sell-High Week 11
Welcome to Fantasy Football Buy-Low/Sell-High for Week 11!
This week we will discuss buy-low/sell-high recommendations for players keeping in mind this could also be adds/drops depending on your specific roster situation. Fantasy In Frames provides informed decisions on the not-so-obvious picks by concentrating on RB/WRs outside Consensus Top 24 and QB/TEs outside Consensus Top 10.
Buy-Low
Elijah Mitchell (RB), San Francisco 49ers
Only Kyle Shanahan would trade for CMC then give Elijah Mitchell 18 carries
— Mason Dodd (@MasonDoddFFN) November 14, 2022
At ADP Consensus RB21 and 46th pick overall, Elijah Mitchell has undoubtedly lived up to the RB Dead Zone label. In all fairness, the title is based on performance projections vice injury, yet the results are the same. I like Elijah Mitchell going forward as a mid-floor RB with upside and even league winner if Christian McCaffrey were to get injured. Last week, Mitchell led the Niners in rushing attempts (18) and also has a better Yards Per Attempt (YPA) than CMC (4.9 vs. 2.7). This is impressive not only because it was his 1st game back, but CMC has been playing lights-out since joining the team. Even as RB2, Mitchell will see plenty of touches in a Niners offense that is 11th in Rushing Attempts per Game (28.1) and near the bottom in Passing Play Percentage (54%). Mitchell and the Niners’ rushing attack have arguably the most manageable schedule with 7 of 8 games against teams outside of the Top 10 in Opponent’s Rushing Yards per Game, including an absolutely amazing Fantasy Playoff schedule (Seahawks, Commanders, Raiders). Add a TD to Mitchell’s 18 Carries for 9.3 FPTS, and he would have been in the same Week 11 Waiver Wire conversation as Christian Watson and Rachaad White. Buy-Low before he hits double-digits Sunday against Cards.
Tyler Lockett (WR), Seattle Seahawks
tyler lockett was actually such a steal at his adp this year
— NFL Fantasy Football (@NFLFantasy) November 13, 2022
shoutout to those who believed in the seahawks offense 🫡 pic.twitter.com/tR2aLis4lI
Bronco Country, Let’s Ride! Sorry, I just couldn’t help myself. But if there’s one thing the Russell Wilson trade has taught us is the impact of brand recognition. Russ going to the Broncos had Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy at ADP Consensus WR17 and 22, respectively. Conversely, the inglorious tandem of Geno Smith/Drew Lock had DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett going 21st and 42nd. In a shock to everyone except Geno Smith Tyler, Lockett ranks WR11 this season with 117 Total FPTS, while Sutton and Jeudy rank 35th and 37th. He has one of the highest and safest floors in the league at 11.7 FPTS/G while scoring double-digits in all but three. The Seahawks rank 22nd in Passing Attempts per Game (31.7) which limits his ceiling, but he’s tied for 1st in WR TDs (3) since Week 7 and is a threat deep and in the Red Zone. The Lockett’s schedule is dicey in the Fantasy Playoffs (49ers, Chiefs, Jets), but he’s a legit WR2 with upside in the next three (Raiders, Rams, Panthers).
Sell-High
David Montgomery (RB), Chicago Bears
While nobody likes to see injuries, David Montgomery owners have to love his potential going forward after Khalil Herbert’s placement on IR. He is sure to reprise his bell-cow role leading the team in carries. Avoid the trap and sell high on the speculation. For one, the same Justin Fields-emergence argument I used to Sell-High on Khalil Herbert last week applies to Montgomery. In short, Fields has the keys to the offense on the ground and through the air, meaning fewer traditional handoffs to Bears’ RBs. The other issue is that Montgomery remains a highly inefficient runner and will likely continue to be given the Bears’ Offense Line play. The reality is that from Weeks 7-10, Montgomery was already out-touching Herbert 53 to 45 but did next to nothing averaging 7.2 FPTS/G (Half-PPR). His 3.7 YPA during that span is on par with his season average (3.8) and is unlikely to change. Montgomery has a great matchup this week vs. the Falcons, but check out their schedule after and into the Fantasy Football playoffs (Jets, Packers, Bye, Eagles, and Bills). He has a great matchup in the Fantasy Champions vs. the Lions, but it’ll take a lot of work to get there. Consider selling for more upside now or after a great game vs. Atlanta.
Isiah Pacheco (RB), Kansas City Chiefs
Warning: Dating analogy follows, so bear with me. Isiah Pacheco is the summer fling that wowed you out of nowhere and had you excited about long-term commitment, only to ghost during [RB hand-] cuffing season. Despite the disappointment, you cling to hope, and on the rare occasion they show up, convince yourself, “This time, it’s for real .” That was pretty deep, but the point is that he can’t be relied upon in a Chiefs’ offense ranked 4th in Pass Play Percentage (64.4%) and bottom of the league in Rushing Attempts per Game. Pacheco is a great prospect and makes the most of his opportunities with a 4.7 YPA. The issue is that touches are low and consistent volume unlikely. Despite CEH’s inexplicable disappearance last week, Pacheco is still in a 3-way Running Back by Committee, also splitting touches with Jerrick McKinnon. The Chiefs rush the 25th fewest attempts in the league (23.7), and Patrick Mahomes is guaranteed 4-7 of those. Speaking of Mahomes, the League MVP push is on as his average Pass Attempts per game has jumped to 44 since Week 6, up from 37 per game prior. Pacheco is a smash for the 2023 Keeper and Dynasty leagues and likely 2nd or 3rd rounder in Re-Draft. But Sell-High on his 1st decent game this season and mysterious CEH absence.