Welcome to Week 3 of Boring Players Who Win 4-EYED Championships. Sure, being cool is cool. But winning is more fun!
We continue to look at each team for one player who you’ll see in your fantasy football draft and think “All of my sleepers are gone, so guess I’ll take him” and you won’t regret it. The reliable RB. The unwavering WR. The trusty TE. The late-queued QB. You won’t write home to your mother about them, but you’ll appreciate their consistency from the comfort of your playoff spot. (Siri, set a reminder to call Mom.)
Here are the AFC NORTH’s Boring Players Who Win 4-EYED Championships!
Baltimore Ravens – Gus Edwards
Gus, Mr. Edwards if you’re nasty, has an ADP in the late 13th round and is going undrafted in the VAST majority of leagues. I’m not saying he should be drafted in all leagues. For leagues with deeper benches or that require starting multiple flex positions, particularly non-PPR leagues, hop aboard the Gus Bus.
Going into his third year, he’s averaged 5.3 yards per carry. Gus averaged 3.38 yards after contact per attempt (RB10); Ingram averaged 3.08 (RB25). PFF elusiveness ratings are eerily similar between Ingram at 59.5 (RB20) and Edwards at 58.0 (RB22).
Two dings: Gus is not the goal line option for Baltimore, amassing a grand total of 4 TDs in two years. (However, touchdowns are one of the least predictable statistics in fantasy football.) More concerning is Baltimore’s scheme seems to ignore rushers in the passing game. In 2019, Baltimore RBs amassed 41 catches on 49 targets. By comparison, Devonta Freeman alone had 59 receptions on 64 targets in 14 games and he is no longer on an NFL roster.
Yet, Baltimore’s scheme, i.e., let Lamar Jackson immobilize the defense, resulted in Gus seeing stacked boxes on a mere 16.5% of snaps (Ingram saw 18.4% stacked boxes). So with Lamar under center and despite being in a backup role, Guess Who Gus will have some value. Could you imagine if an RB in Baltimore’s backfield goes down?
All aboard the Gus Bus! Beep beep!
Cincinnati Bengals – A.J. Green
What if I told you there was a WR that PFF ranked from 2011 to 2018 as WR27, WR7, WR13, WR9, WR4, WR3, WR9, and WR12? I mean…wow! I almost don’t want to provide any other stats. But I will because you’ve made it this far.
In 2017 and 2018, A.J. Green averaged 2.39 (WR10) and 2.09 (WR8) yards per route run. This stat is calculated by PFF to take into account the number of snaps a player actually ran a route designed to catch a ball. It provides a better indication of a receiver’a production than just looking strictly at all targets and all receiving yards. So, again, Green held strong as a top-10 WR up to his injury in 2019. But surely I’ll need to draft a potential WR10 in the first few rounds, right?
Obviously not! You get all of this, and more, at the low low price of the late 5th/early 6th round. Michael Gallup and Tyler Boyd are young and flashy found around that ADP. A.J. Green is a proven commodity when he’s on the field. With even more time to rest, hopefully Green can find his footing and help you find championship swag.
All aboard the Green Golfcart! Fore!
Cleveland Browns – Odell Beckham Jr.
He was WR23 in receiving yards, WR12 in targets, WR35 in fantasy points per game. But, according to his current ADP (5/28/20), this receiver is the second WR being drafted from Cleveland in the 6th round! A year ago, the person you could have sworn I was talking about would have been Jarvis Landry.
NOPE! I’m talking OBJ.
Has the world gone nuts?!
Going backward before last season, OBJ had finished as the WR6, WR3, WR5, WR3, & WR1 in terms of average fantasy points per game.
He’s currently being drafted behind receivers like teammate Jarvis Landry, Michael Gallup, Robert Woods, A.J. Brown, and Stefon Diggs. People! The man had ONE subpar season and suddenly he’s being thrown to the wolves of “boring town”. Book it now. OBJ returns to top-12 WR fantasy relevance in 2020.
All aboard the OBJ Airlines! Zooooom!
Pittsburgh Steelers – JuJu Smith-Schuster
Look, I get it. Because he was hurt for most of last year, we never saw if he could be a true #1 fantasy WR with the departure of Antonio Brown. Oh, and his starting QB was out for the season. So the rapport he had with his Big Ben wasn’t there.
The QB for the Steelers seemed to change weekly, preventing JuJu “So So” Smith-Schuster for establishing chemistry with ANYONE. In summary 2019 was a boring mess for JuJu!
Yet, despite only playing 12 games, he was a mere two targets shy of being the team leader in contested targets and was barely behind Dionte Johnson in receptions per game. In 2018, JuJu was in the top 15 of every major statistical category for a wide receiver.
You bring back a healthy Big Ben, you lean on the development of Dionte Johnson and the addition of Eric Ebron to draw away defensive attention, and JuJu is right back where he was in 2018 with having one-on-one coverage again making him an enticing target in that offense.
All aboard the Smith-Schuster’s Schwinn! Ring ring!
I hope all you #4EYEDfans enjoyed this week’s installment, and see you next time for the NFC North’s Boring Players Who Win 4-EYED Championships!