DFS Fantasy Football: Mistakes To Avoid
So far in this article series, Joe and I have discussed why Daily Fantasy is fun, the terminology, tips for success, and now, finally, we are going to discuss the DFS Fantasy Football Mistakes to Avoid each week.
I would love to sugar coat this and say Daily Fantasy is easy. It is fun and easy to play, but like anything worthwhile, it’s really difficult to play perfectly or have constant success at. Whether it is Matthew Berry, the guys at Fantasy Pros, or Joe and I (full discretion that the last line was just so I can see me and Joe’s name in print in the same sentence as some of the best in the Fantasy Football business), no one has all the answers. If they tell you they do, they are lying, no one can predict the future. Especially when it comes to fantasy football. Ask anyone who gambles on NFL action how unpredictable it can be.
However, there are strategies and information we can give that can provide you with a leg up. As I mentioned above, Joe and I do not have all the answers. There will be weeks we look really smart and weeks we look dumb. I can’t guarantee you to have all the answers. What I can guarantee you is we will spend a lot of time and research into any plays we give on the Fantasy In Frames site or on the new Fantasy In Frames Podcast Network!
Our goal when we first started recording a daily fantasy football podcast, two years ago, was to give our listeners the best information possible by giving them high-priced, medium-priced, low-priced options at each position for their lineup. The listeners could then use the picks and information we pass along to make their own choices. Make no mistake in that, from our perspective, we are in this together and our goal collectively should be to have as much fun as possible, preferably by winning large sums of money.
Mistakes to Avoid
- A majority of your lineups should be single entry tournaments, 50/50 pools, or head-to-head matchups: It is very easy to see the guaranteed prize pool of the larger entries of DraftKings or FanDuel and get dollar signs in your eyes. Be sure to check the max amount of entries a user can have in parentheses in the bottom left corner of the tournament header. Most big fields allow users to have somewhere between 20 and 150 entries in that one contest. Professionals on these sites love these pools because they are going to submit the max amount of entries using an algorithm. I don’t know about you but I can barely spell algorithm, much less use one to my advantage. It’s easy to comprehend how playing in a pool where you and everyone else in the pool can only have one entry is much better odds than trying to take your one or two entries against hundreds of users using 150 lineups each. It is almost as likely you would win the lottery as it is that you would win one of these giant max entry tournaments. I occasionally play the lottery and I occasionally do play in large tournaments, but if you are truly trying to make a profit play in single entries a majority of the time.
- Focus on 50/50 and Head to Head matchups: This is in the same vein as the #1 on the list. A 50/50 (double up) and head to head are exactly as they sound. In the 50/50, you have 50% of the pool is winners and 50% is losers. Head to head it is you vs one other person for a set amount. Winner takes all, well minus the cut that DraftKings keeps. In head to head or 50/50 matchups you have a 50% chance of cashing where normally around 20-25% of the field places and get paid in larger max entry tournaments. Doubling your entry is not as alluring as having a chance in a 100,000 entry pool where 1st place wins 1 million, but it’s far more likely you will win money. If you do to double up lineups each week for the same amount, by winning one (cash) of the two and you are practically breaking even.
- Do not overspend on a Defense: You know the guy in your season-long fantasy football league who drafts a kicker relatively early? These are the same people who put the most expensive defenses in their lineups. Defenses scoring 15 or more points, in general, is fluky. The rules in the NFL are currently weighted heavily towards the offensive side of the ball. The ’85 Bears or 2000 Ravens defenses are no more. High scoring totals by defenses come from turnovers, defensive/special teams touchdowns, or a lot of sacks. Minus the sacks, the other items I listed are practically impossible to predict. Trust me you can find a defense in the 2K to low 3K price range and save at least 1K for your position players which is far more likely to reward you than any defense in the league. If you don’t believe me, the top defenses each of the last 5 weeks were the Chiefs, Saints, Dolphins, Bears, and Washington. None of those defenses were in the Top 5 most expensive for that week they lead in scoring.
- Avoid Bad Weather Games: If you want another example of the madness that is daily fantasy football, one of the first websites I check every morning, on Saturday and Sunday, is the weather app looking to see what games could have freezing cold temperatures, high winds, or heavy rainfall. It goes without saying that any game in a dome is the safest bet that a predicted high-scoring game will turn out that way. It is very hard for QBs and WR’s to put up big numbers in high winds or rain. Remember the Bills vs Pats game early this season? It was played in a NorEastern. The Patriots won throwing the ball like 3 times. As with any variable, you should play it to your advantage. If you see terrible weather like that Bills vs Pats game I spoke about above, you would target running backs and defenses in those games. I never start a QB or WR in a bad weather game. In full slates, there are plenty of other options who will not have to deal with mother nature.
- Do not forget to check your lineup right before kickoff/try to avoid starting guys with health concerns: Unfortunately, I have fallen for this several times in my years. A guy is listed as questionable, Adam Schefter tweets he is expected to play, and I never check my lineup again only to see later he had a setback 15 mins before the game and now he is out. Always check your lineup 10-15 mins before kickoff and try to avoid players with injury concerns.
- Do not tinker with your lineup at the last minute if it is not injury related: I know I just wrote “100” words on why you need to check your lineup shortly before kickoff. It should be viewed the same way you use a fire extinguisher. Break only in case of emergency. If you are reading this column, listening to podcasts, and already spent a lot of time looking at your lineup trying to pick the perfect one you obviously are a person who thinks analytically and there were good reasons for your plays in your lineup. Therefore, don’t panic change your lineup at the last minute.
- Do not worry if you have a few hundred dollars left over in your lineup: I am not saying that you should not try to spend every dollar you can of the $50,000 for your DFS lineup. What I am saying is if you are happy with your lineup but have a few hundred dollars leftover, it is not the end of the world especially when making changes to a set lineup. Attempting to reach the full $50,000 salary can really backfire. It can set off a white elephant scenario whereby at kickoff you have no idea how the hell you ended up with this lineup and none of the guys you had at the start of the morning are still in it.
- Have a set limit to what you will spend each week and deposit into your bank account when you double that amount: I know this sounds like something you would hear from an Economics professor but this is the best advice you can ever get when it comes to gambling. Know what you can play with, do not over-exceed that amount, and when you get up out money back into your banking account. It is very easy to have a big week, triple the money that you put into the pools and then lose it all the next week.