Today, we continue our Risers and Fallers series looking at the dynasty risers at wide receivers heading into the 2022 fantasy football season!
The wide receiver position is considered to be a high-value position in dynasty leagues due to the typical longevity of the position, and wide receivers tend to breakout early in their career. We saw several wide receivers breakout in 2021, which saw their dynasty value rise. We expect several wide receivers’ value to rise during the 2022 offseason as there are coaching changes, free agency moves, and NFL draft picks. This article discusses two wide receivers that saw their value rise during the 2021 season and two wide receivers whose value will rise during the 2022 offseason.
Those who have risen…
Deebo Samuel
You could argue that Deebo Samuel is a running back after his 2021 season, but he is officially listed as a wide receiver and he epitomizes this list. According to DLF, Deebo hit an ADP-low of 2021 in August as the WR40 then rose all season to finish January as the WR9! That is a significant rise in dynasty value during the season.
Samuel came off an injury-shortened season in 2020, and many people were excited about Brandon Aiyuk, who had a dynamic rookie season. Samuel ended up being the #1 wide receiver for the team, and Aiyuk struggled for most of the season. Samuel had the 5th most receiving yard among WRs in 2021 (1405) with the 21st most receptions (77) because he led the NFL in yards after catch per reception (10.18) by 1.59 yards/rec compared to the 2nd best WR. Samuel’s fantasy floor came from his work in the rushing game. He led the league in most rush attempts by a WR (59) with 41 attempts greater than the 2nd highest player, and he led the league in most rushing yards by a WR (365) with 289 yards greater than the 2nd highest player. Samuel had more rushing TDs (8) than receiving TDs (6). Those rushing touchdowns may not be sustainable year to year, but if the team continues to give him that much work in the rushing game then he will always have a safe fantasy floor that provides significant value.
In a startup draft, you can expect Samuel to be drafted in the 2nd round in a 1-QB league, and he may make it to the early 3rd round in a Superflex/2-QB league. You will need to give up significant assets, including 1st round picks, to acquire Samuel right now after such an electric season.
Hunter Renfrow
Hunter Renfrow did not rise as high as Samuel, but he was a massive riser during the 2021 season. According to DLF, Renfrow was as low as the WR111 in July then rapidly climbed as season and finished as the WR38 in January 2022! You will be drafting Renfrow much sooner in 2022 than you did in 2021. He finished as the WR10 in PPR scoring (259.1) and WR17 in PPR points per game (15.2) in 2021.
Renfrow led the team in target share (21.2%), but Darren Waller led the team in targets per game, 8.5 compared to Renfrow’s 7.5 targets/game. Renfrow hit career-highs by a significant margin in targets (128), receptions (103), yards (1,038), and touchdowns (9). Renfrow’s targets were steady all season, but he saw his spike of fantasy points starting in Week 9 after the bye week and after Henry Ruggs was cut from the team. He had five WR1 scoring weeks out of six from Week 9 to Week 14 when he averaged 21.5 ppg during those five weeks.
Hunter Renfrow will still be undervalued in 2022 because most people will think his 2021 performance was an outlier instead of the start of a trend. He still had a significant rise in dynasty value due to his WR1 2021 season.
Those who could rise…
Darnell Mooney
Darnell Mooney had to suffer through erratic quarterback play again for his 2nd NFL season. He was still able to score enough to be the WR23 in 2021. Mooney was the WR1 on his team with a commanding 26.7% target share with 140 targets. That amount of targets gives him the potential to be a WR1 in 2022 and beyond. Allen Robinson is a free agent and he is not expected to re-sign with the Bears after an extremely disappointing season.
Mooney had the 10th most targets amongst wide receivers and the 11th most air yards. There is hope that Justin Fields will continue to develop in his 2nd season, and that will allow Mooney to score more touchdowns. He had his first 1,000-yard season and had 400 more yards from 20 more receptions compared to his rookie season but he scored 4 touchdowns both seasons.
Darnell Mooney is currently the WR36 in ADP for dynasty, according to DLF. He can only rise from there. There is a new coaching staff, and there will be beat-reporters talking about how good Justin Fields looks during the offseason program. There is a high chance that Mooney will be the WR1 on the Bears in 2022, which will push his ADP higher after the NFL Draft. Mooney is not considered young from his draft class, but he will only turn 25 years old during his 3rd season.
Jerry Jeudy
Jerry Jeudy underperformed for the second season in a row. He was injured in the first game of the season and missed several weeks, and we never saw Jeudy come back to preseason expectations. It is not worth boring you with his stats, but they were bad. Jeudy is a talented wide receiver and a great route runner. He has not been helped by his quarterbacks.
Jeudy’s ADP has not dropped as much as you may have expected. According to DLF, he is currently the WR22. Jerry Jeudy is only 22 years old and will turn 23 in April of 2022. He is still young and that is keeping his dynasty value higher than you would expect for a player coming off his recent season. Jeudy is on this list for a wide receiver who could rise this offseason because as soon as the Denver Broncos sign a competent quarterback then his stock will rise. He is young and talented, and just needs a better quarterback that is capable of throwing more accurately downfield.
If you want to acquire Jerry Jeudy right now you will need to give up quality assets because everyone still believes he is talented and we all know he is young so he is just a quarterback away. You could gamble that the Broncos do night acquire a better quarterback during the offseason then Jeudy’s value would drop a bit. Then you could try to acquire him at a discount and hope the Broncos finally get a better quarterback in 2023.
