4-EYED SLEEPER (2021): Russell Gage
Opportunity breeds success.
There is no better opportunity than being a starting WR on one of the league’s most pass-happy teams. With the breaking news of Julio Jones’ departure, it appears that there are some valuable targets to be had in Atlanta. Let’s take the potential target share increase on top of one of the quietest 70 reception seasons in 2020, and you can see why…..
Russell Gage is a 4-EYED SLEEPER that could help you win a Fantasy Championship this season!
Opportunity
By now I believe we all have heard that the Falcons have traded their star, WR Julio Jones, to the Tennessee Titans. While this might not be great news for Matt Ryan, it does lend to an ideal opportunity for Russell Gage. Gage, the Falcons’ 6th rd pick in 2018 from LSU, has carved out a nice little slot role over the past 2 seasons. The question going forward is the crux of the situation, “Will the Falcons move Gage from the slot and split him out wide?” Obviously, this is important for unlocking his potential ceiling. Yes, Gage was solid last year while in the slot (WR15 in points/target in the slot, per PlayerProfiler), but is he best served in the slot or moving outside to fill the vacant role of Jones? Last year, when Jones was out of the lineup, Gage stayed in the slot role early in the season, but from weeks 14-17, he played 62% of the snaps out wide. Anytime that you can line up opposite of an All-Pro (Calvin Ridley), the amount of attention that you will face should be greatly reduced. Not all position shifts go well, but over the final 4 weeks of the season, he produced 3 top 20 weeks in 1/2 PPR and was the WR17 over that span. Encouraging news for new OC Arthur Smith
Role
Speaking of Arthur Smith, the 2021-2022 season has the potential to look very different for the Falcons. There is a myriad of questions that I want to know before deciding just how much of an impact Gage is going to have. For starters, how often do they run 3-WR sets? Atlanta deployed 3-WR on 58% of their plays, while the TItans only saw 41%. Next would be the philosophy that Smith will bring with him? Will he let Matt Ryan throw the rock (3rd most pass plays in 2020 & most passing plays in NFL in 2019), or will he bring his ground game with him from Tennessee? The only piece of evidence we have so far is the depth chart. With Olamide Zaccheaus as the only true threat among WRs, it would appear that there is a pretty easy path to 100 targets (110 in 2020). *Of the WR with 100+ targets in 2020, only 2 averaged less than 9 ppg in 1/2 PPR (Jerry Jeudy & AJ Green)*. Since speculation and situation is what I am banking on, I see Gage getting his shot out wide.
No one throws it more than the Falcons and Russell Gage keeps piling up the targets. pic.twitter.com/G9F29PL2fg
— Field Yates (@FieldYates) November 27, 2019
Fantasy Outlook
Losing Julio is more opportunistic for Gage than bad, that is easy to determine. Now what Matt Ryan and the Falcons do in the way of target distribution is a whole other ball of wax. Obviously, we have Calvin Ridley. He is the Alpha and the Omega in this offense. The curious part is going to be the addition of #1 Draft Pick, Kyle Pitts. In the Arthur Smith offense, multiple Tight End sets are a routine approach. I have to imagine that Pitts and Hurst will line up enough, but that O-line is rough, so expect Hurst to see plenty of blocking assignments. All of this leads to my outlook for Russell Gage in 2021, which is a middle of the road WR3. Last year, in a fluid role, he finished the season as the WR 37. While he ended the 2020 season in studly fashion (wr12 during wk 14-17), I think the offense will scale back the attempts. Currently being drafted outside the top 70 WR’s, (pre-trade), I expect Gage’s ADP to normalize in the WR 45-50 range, which provides us a wonderful buying opportunity with his elevated floor and elevated ceiling.
If I have to look at a sleeper candidate this year, give me the WR2 on a pass-happy team with little competition in the way of the WR3 and a player in their contract year. Yes, Russell Gage is playing for a payday. The needle is, indeed, pointing up on this Gage in 2021 and he is well worth the draft investment for you this season.