Elijah Moore, the New York Jets’ second-round selection in the 2021 draft, is an exciting prospect for prospective dynasty managers. But how does his fantasy production look in the short and long term? Let us find out in our latest 4-EYED ROOKIE SNAPSHOT!
Profile and College Production
In his freshman season at Ole Miss Moore played with both AJ Brown and DK Metcalf, clearly limiting his early usage. Even with these two superstar receivers ahead of him Moore still managed to produce, reeling in 36 receptions for 398 yards and two touchdowns. His usage then increased significantly in his sophomore season, registering 850 receiving yards and six touchdowns across 67 receptions.
Moore’s production then exploded in his junior season, quickly becoming one of the most talked-about prospects in this draft class. In 2020 the Ole Miss receiver racked up 86 receptions from 101 targets, amassing a total of 1,193 receiving yards and eight touchdowns in just eight games. This included impressive performances against elite SEC competition, including 143 yards against eventual national champions Alabama. As a result, Moore ranked second in college football in both receptions and receiving yards – only behind Heisman winner DeVonta Smith in both categories with 1,327 yards across 117 receptions.
During his three years at Ole Miss Moore did most of his work from the slot, accounting for 92% of his snaps across his college career according to PFF. One of the most exciting aspects of Moore’s profile is his ability after the catch. He racked up 505 yards after the catch in 2020, which represented the sixth most in college football.
Standing at 5-foot 9, Moore profiles as a slot receiver but certainly has the ability to be much more than just that. A common comparison amongst fantasy analysts has been Tyler Lockett due to their comparative size and ability to win both inside and outside, and this was clearly demonstrated last season with his ability to win contested catches. Moore had 11 contested catches (15 contested targets) last season, which ranked joint fifth in college football, and his impressive 73.3% contested catch rate ranked sixth in 2020 amongst receivers with at least 60 targets, according to PFF.
The Short-Term
It remains to be seen just how much usage Moore will get this coming year given the competition around him. Earlier this year Corey Davis joined Jamison Crowder and Denzel Mims, the Jets’ second-round selection last year, on a three-year US$ 37.5m contract, while former Jaguars receiver Keelan Cole also joined the team in free agency.
As it stands, Moore would therefore be competing with veteran receiver Jamieson Crowder for playing time in the slot. While this would limit him somewhat, there is still also an obvious need for a receiver with the ability to generate yards after the catch. Last season the Jets accumulated just 1,197 yards after the catch, the fourth-lowest total in the league.
Although the team is certainly not in need of cap space, there are plenty of rumours circulating that the team could cut or trade Crowder, which would save the team over US$ 10m. Crowder has reportedly been absent from OTAs while the team discusses his contract situation. Should Crowder leave there would a clear opportunity for Moore to be on the field much more and become a safety blanket for the team’s new quarterback, Zach Wilson.
Long-Term Prospects
Reports suggest that the Jets actually wanted to take Moore at 23 before they moved up to draft Alijah Vera-Tucker, so clearly, the team has big plans for the receiver. On top of this, at the moment there is no obvious number one target on the team. If Moore can develop early chemistry with fellow rookie Zach Wilson, there looks to be no reason why he couldn’t vault himself above the incumbent receivers. Early reports from camp have been extremely positive.
Elijah Moore is catching touchdowns in the red zone again. Guy near unstoppable down here by goal line #Jets
— Connor Hughes (@Connor_J_Hughes) June 10, 2021
Although the wide receiver room may look a little crowded at the moment, it looks likely to open up for Moore after this season. Even if the team does keep Jamison Crowder in 2021, he is now in the last year of his three-year contract and will be an unrestricted free agent going into next season. Another free agent signing, Keelan Cole, is only on a one-year contract, and as a result, Moore has a much clearer path to playing time in 2022 and beyond.
This offense will also inevitably be much more fantasy-relevant going forward under the stewardship of head coach Robert Saleh and offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur. The San Francisco system was well-designed for players with strong yards-after-catch ability, and Moore would likely thrive if a similar system were to be implemented in New York. Now with new quarterback Zach Wilson entering the picture, the future looks much brighter for the Jets’ pass-catching options.
Fantasy Outlook
While Elijah Moore clearly has the talent to succeed at the next level, there are a couple of obstacles to fantasy stardom early on in his career. Firstly, we should remember he will be playing with an inexperienced rookie quarterback, and secondly, there remains a fairly crowded wide receiver room. Despite all this, Moore’s skillset means he could prove to be a shrewd late-round option in redraft formats, particularly if Crowder is plying his trade elsewhere.
Longer-term, I believe there is a real possibility that Moore could become the number one pass-catching option on this team. And if Zach Wilson lives up to his pre-draft hype under the guise of Saleh and LaFleur, this could easily be a high-scoring fantasy-friendly offense. In dynasty formats, he appears to be an obvious target while Crowder remains part of the organisation – and we could see his value sky-rocket before the season starts if a move does occur.
