Will Baker Mayfield reach QB1 status in 2020?
The next team up in a series that will answer one burning 4-EYED fantasy question for each of the 32 NFL clubs heading into the 2020 season are the Cleveland Browns. In 2019, the Browns were the 22nd ranked offense in points scored per game, 26th in plays ran during the season on offense, and their second-year star quarterback Baker Mayfield failed to live up to his rookie year hype only averaging 14.3 fantasy points per game (fppg) according to FantasyData 0.5 PPR scoring.
Mayfield, and the entire Browns offense for that matter, came into the season with so much hype surrounding them due to the upgrade at wide receiver with the team’s acquisition of Odell Beckham, Jr, the emergence of running back Nick Chubb in 2018, and promotion of offensive coordinator Freddie Kitchens to head coach. Under Kitchens in 2018, Mayfield, as a rookie, posted 17.2 fppg and was QB11 on the season with 27 TDs and 14 interceptions. Unfortunately, despite the reasons for optimism in 2019, Mayfield posted a horrendous TD to INT ratio of 21 interceptions (2nd most in the league) to 22 touchdowns and the Browns went 6-10.
After a failure to meet those lofty expectations this past season the Browns fired Kitchens and brought in Kevin Stefanski to right the ship in Cleveland. In Minnesota, where he previously served as offensive coordinator, Stefanski employed an offensive philosophy that relied heavily on the running game and a quarterback who made good decisions when needed to shoulder the load on offense.
With that being said the burning question we must answer for the Browns is can Baker Mayfield reach QB1 status in 2020?
Player Profile
| Name | Team | Age | Height | Weight | NFL Exp. | |
| Baker Mayfield | CLE | 31 | 6’1” | 215 lb | 2 years |
Currently, on Fantasy Football Calculator, he’s being drafted as the QB13 with a 9th round ADP although that position has been dropping over the past month indicated below when looking at 0.5 PPR 12-team leagues during that period:
Reasons for optimism
Mayfield played very well in play-action passing situations in 2019 throwing 11 TDs to 6 interceptions. In non-play action passing situations he threw 11 TDs to 15 interceptions. The Browns were actually 3rd in the league in play-action pass attempts, but despite their success in that department they continued to rely more on non-play action passing leading to diminishing returns on offense. Given the talent the Browns have at running back you would think that Stefanski would not make the same mistake and would scheme up plays to cater to Mayfield’s strengths in the play-action passing game making him a more productive player from a real life as well as from a fantasy football point of view.
The Browns addressed the offensive line in 2020 by adding Jack Conklin in free agency from the Tennessee Titans and drafted Jedrick Willis Jr. with the 10th overall pick in the NFL draft. This will surely help Mayfield in providing enough time to make all the appropriate reads in the passing game which is great because Mayfield played pretty poorly under pressure evidenced by his 62% passer rating when pressured.
Lastly, let’s not forget the elite playmakers he has on offense to spread the ball around to in the passing game: Odell Beckham Jr, Jarvis Landry, Austin Hooper, Kareem Hunt, and to a lesser extent Nick Chubb.
So you’re telling me the Browns are possibly giving Mayfield a new offensive scheme to maximize his playmaking potential, a better offensive line that can protect him, and elite level playmakers for him to get the ball to and you’re concerned about him not returning QB1 value?!
Well…let’s pump the breaks and examine the other side of the coin here.
Reasons for pessimism
The Vikings in 2019 were 24th in the league in passing attempts with Kirk Cousins compared to Mayfield and the Browns being 10th. Cousins’ impressive 26 touchdowns and 6 interceptions were largely a result of great passing efficiency rather than high passing volume. As we all know volume is king in fantasy football. Despite Cousins’ solid play he still only averaged 16.3 fppg making him a back end QB2.
Cousins’ was known for slinging the ball around when he was in Washington and during most of his first year in Minnesota. However, that rarely saw his team find real football success. It was only until he made fewer passes but better decisions did he and his team find success in the win column, but not necessarily the fantasy point column. On the flip side, Mayfield threw the ball more than Cousins in 2019 which was met with disastrous results in terms of turnovers, poor quality of throws, and an inability to handle being under pressure.
At a certain point, a head coach/offensive coordinator has to ask themselves is putting the ball in their QB’s hands a good thing or detriment to the team. In 2019, it was definitely the latter for Baker Mayfield, but could things change in 2020 under this new regime in Cleveland? Could these roster changes during the offseason lead to Mayfield finding QB1 success?
Answering the Question
Will Baker Mayfield reach QB1 status in 2020?
In my opinion, no he will not.
If the Vikings model with Kirk Cousins from 2019 is similar to what the Browns will do in 2020, Kevin Stefanski will look to take the pressure off of Mayfield by emphasizing the running game and only rely on Mayfield in critical passing situations versus funneling the offense through him. The end result should be a decrease in passing volume for Mayfield making him a less than an ideal weekly fantasy option for fantasy football managers this season.