Slot Machines Part IV

Last week I hit you with slot receivers I view as strong candidates to grab in the final rounds of drafts. What better way to end my Slot Machines series than to finish off with the studs that the slot has to offer.

Last year, five of the Top 15 WR in half PPR scoring saw over half their targets from the slot. Nine of those 15 wide receivers saw at least 35% of their targets from the slot. Eight of those 15 guys also saw 500 plus yards from the slot. Do yourself the favor and get your slot homework done!

Cooper Kupp

Cooper Kupp will finish the 2020 season with the most slot receptions in the NFL. Kupp was targeted 99 times from the slot in 2019. Those targets produced a very nice 69 receptions, 853 yards, and 5 touchdowns. His 853 receiving yards via the slot led the NFL. Cooper Kupp had a whopping seven games with double-digit targets in 2019. After starting the season with four 100 yard receiving games in the first five weeks, Kupp failed to record a 100 yard game following the team’s week 9 bye. To be fair, he did end the season with a receiving touchdown in five straight weeks.

Touchdowns are volatile and only one wide receiver scored more than Kupp’s 10 touchdowns. Those touchdowns helped vault Kupp up to the number four wide receiver in half PPR leagues last season. However, he does play on one of the more pass friendly offenses in the league. I expect Kupp to easily pass the 90 catch milestone on his way to a second straight 1,000 yard season. 

In 2019: 134 targets, 94 receptions, 1161 yards, 10 TD

Current ADP: 31

Bold Take: Woods > Kupp. While Kupp does his work from the slot, Woods is able to beat you in many ways. Robert Woods will line up from the slot and outside, but will also see close to 20 carries next season. I’m expecting Woods to be targeted more by the end of their 2020 campaigns. The 10:2 touchdown ratio the two saw last season should see a more even split. 

Tyler Boyd

Two receivers went for 90 catches and 1000 yards in 2019 and finished outside the Top 15 in half PPR scoring: Tyler Boyd and Robert Woods. Cincinnati should see plenty of scoreboards in which they trail in 2020, forcing their rookie quarterback to air it out to Boyd and company. Boyd was one of seven players to run over 400 snaps from the slot in 2019. His 776 yards from the slot last season ranked third in the NFL. AJ Green is back and the Bengals drafted Tee Higgins, but Boyd has been a focal point for this offense over the last few seasons and that looks to continue into the 2020 season. I view Boyd as a Top 25 WR and really don’t see any scenarios where he finishes outside of that. 

In 2019: 147 targets, 90 receptions, 1046 yards, 5 TDs

Current ADP: 75

Bold Take: Finishes the 2020 season higher than the WR23 performance he put up last year in half PPR formats. 

Tyler Lockett

I love myself some TD Lockett! He led the league with six touchdowns from the slot along with Mecole Hardman and Marquise Brown. Lockett’s 770 yards from the slot last season ranked fourth in the NFL. Over his previous two seasons, Lockett racked up 139 receptions, 2022 yards, and 18 touchdowns. There is crazy chemistry between Lockett and QB Russel Wilson which looks to continue into the 2020 season. If three 2019 games with double-digit receptions doesn’t speak to the strength of their chemistry, I’m not sure what will. The emergence of D.K. Metcalf will keep Lockett out of the WR1 conversation that he managed to enter at points last season. I see no reason for Lockett to not finish as a Top 25 WR this season. Touchdowns are volatile, but I’ll take the gamble on Lockett finding his way into the endzone all season long! 

In 2019: 110 targets, 82 receptions, 1057 yards, 8 TDs

Current ADP: 50

Bold Take: I’ll take Locket with a third straight 8 plus touchdown season right to Vegas.

Jarvis Landry

Jarvis Landry and consistency go hand in hand. Last season he had five catches for 50 yards in every game but three. His 355 snaps from the slot were more than double the next closest Brown’s receiver. His 46 slot receptions tripled the total OBJ accumulated from the slot over the course of the 2019 season. With no one stealing any slot reps from Landry and another year of chemistry with Baker Mayfield under his belt, the 80 receptions, 950 yards, and 4 touchdowns he has put up in each season since 2015 should be considered his floor for the 2020 season. A new OC and HC arrived in Cleveland this offseason, as well as adding protection on the OL for Baker Mayfield. Freddie Kitchens did not set the bar high last season so I only see this offense improving. 

In 2019: 138 targets, 83 receptions, 1174 yards, 6 TDs

Current ADP: 70

Bold Take: WR13 in half PPR scoring is currently going off draft boards as WR31. I can’t be the only one who likes bargains!

Chris Godwin

Godwin ran the majority of slot snaps for Tampa Bay in 2019 and boy does Tom Brady love feeding his slot man. Godwin may be the most talented receiver Brady has ever had running routes for him from the slot. I haven’t found myself drafting many shares of Godwin with how running backs are flying off draft boards. As the primary slot man for a Tom Brady ran offense, I find it impossible for him to not finish as one of the top fantasy wide receivers by the end of the 2020 season. 

In 2019: 120 targets, 86 receptions, 1333 yards, 9 TDs

Current ADP: 19

Bold Take: Is saying Godwin finishes as a Top 5 WR even bold?

Marquise Brown

Hollywood Brown is one of the most explosive players the NFL has to offer. His 6 touchdowns from the slot in only 120 snaps justify that! He was targeted only 28 times while in the slot in 2019 but turned that into 19 catches for 205 yards. While Willie Snead will run the majority of the slot work for Baltimore in 2020, Hollywood will still handle a bulk of snaps. Last season, no team scored more than the 19 touchdowns the Ravens scored from the slot; 13 of those came from wide receivers. With the way Baltimore feeds slot wide receivers, Hollywood could once again be sitting atop the leaderboard for the most touchdowns from the slot at the end of the 2020 season. Consider that in 2018, Tyreke Hill caught 47 balls for 857 yards and 9 touchdowns from the slot. Obviously, that is a ridiculous stat line and situations aren’t quite the same, but with Hollywood’s talent level and greater opportunity it’s not crazy to think he could put on a similar show from the slot. At his current ADP, Will Fuller is the only other player at this point in the draft to have a similar upside to this dude. I hate the word league winner, but Hollywood is the type of player that could have that sort of impact this season.

In 2019: 71 targets, 46 receptions, 584 yards, 7 TDs

Current ADP: 70

Bold Take: Speed Kills. Tyreke 2.0 is my favorite to lead the league in slot touchdowns next season

Deebo Samuel

If Deebo gets more usage from the slot this season, his upside is tremendous. Last season he saw 93 snaps from the slot while teammates Manny Sanders and Kendrick Bourne saw 175 and 144 snaps respectively. With Sanders, Jordan Matthews, and Marquise Goodwin no longer on the roster, 225 slot snaps are up for grabs for this 49ers wide receiver corps. If Bourne assumes the Sanders slot role and Deebo picks up the slack, Samuels could be looking at close to 150 slot snaps in 2020. In his limited opportunity from the slot last season, Samuel put up 21 catches, 252 yards, and two touchdowns. We could be looking at a stud in the making with Deebo getting more looks from the slot along with his ability to also contribute as a runner. From week 8 on, Deebo averaged 12.95 FPPG in half PPR leagues. No small feat for a 10 week stretch in your rookie year.

We love running backs that catch the ball, so why not wide receivers who can run? In the final 5 weeks of the 2019 season, Deebo Samuel averaged 24.4 yards per game on the ground. He ended up rushing for 159 yards and 3 touchdowns last season. With three 100 yard receiving games in his rookie campaign, Deebo Samuel only looks to get better in his sophomore season as the number one wide receiver in a Kyle Shanahan offense. Shanahan will find ways to get Deebo the ball and have him play a vital role in this 49er’s offense. 

In 2019: 81 targets, 57 receptions, 802 yards, 3 TDs (rushed for 159 yards and 3 TDs)

Current ADP: 52

Bold Take: No wide receiver rushes for more yards in 2020 than Deebo Samuel.

IDP Twist: Malcolm Jenkins

Malcolm Jenkins was an absolute stud while defending the slot last season. He covered opposing slot receivers 180 times in 2019 and saw just 17 targets allowing 9 receptions for a measly 70 yards. While in slot coverage he allowed a passer rating of just 63.4. Though he failed to record an interception for only the second time in his career, Jenkins found ways to contribute. He forced three fumbles, recovered one, and tacked on 2.5 sacks last season. Only Jamaal Adams had more than the nine QB hits Jenkins recorded last season. He defended eight passes in 2019 and chipped in 63 solo tackles. Jenkins should once again see plenty of opportunities to make plays in 2020!

Final Takes

• Robert Woods over Cooper Kupp!
• Boyd is a Top 25 WR but AJ Green is currently going before him….
• TD Lockett was given the nickname for a reason.
• I’m shaking my head at the fact that I can get Jarvis Landry as WR31 in current drafts.
• Godwin and Brady will be a killer duo. Lock Godwin up as a Top 5 WR this season.
• Hollywood all day, everyday. I can’t stop drafting him. 
• Deebo went for over 800 yards as a rookie. Look for a 1,000 yard season in year two.