Today, we continue our 2022 Prospect Profile series where we break down each prospect’s outlook for their potential rookie campaign in the NFL by assessing their individual strengths and weaknesses, reviewing potential landing spots, and giving our assessment of their potential fantasy relevance in the coming season.
The next player to continue our 2022 Prospect Profile series is Sam Howell, Quarterback, University of North Carolina.
Projected Draft Spot
late 1st to mid-2nd round
Potential Suitors
Buccaneers, Lions, Seahawks, Giants
Strengths
The first thing that will stand out when you watch Sam Howell will likely be his mobility, as a scrambler away from pressure and also as a runner. In fact, in 2021, Howell had 828 rushing yards and 11 rushing touchdowns. He can also throw well while on the run. Howell generally has good pocket presence and accuracy in most situations, and was even described as a “can make all the throws” guy by Brandon Lejeune. Howell may not have a cannon for an arm as they say, but he has a good enough arm to be able to make all such throws. He is lauded as a confident, tough team leader with a high football IQ, and those are “you can’t teach that” intangibles.
Weaknesses
While Howell’s mobility and running prowess are good traits, he is not the “cheat code” type of quarterback, and he goes to his legs too quickly sometimes. Howell struggled as a passer in 2021, relative to his 2020 season. A common explanation is “he lost all his weapons.” It is true that the departure of players like Javonte Williams, Michael Carter, and Dyami Brown negatively affected Howell’s production (and are part of his 2021 rushing production in that he had to run more), some rebut the “he lost his weapons” with “if he was that good, he wouldn’t need the weapons to define him and determine his success.” Howell can struggle when his first read isn’t there, and Matt Waldman has pointed out he needs to read the field better, specifically with regard to recognizing when receivers are open. Doing this better would help Howell avoid taking as many sacks as he does.
Player Comparisons
Because of Howell’s mobility, his lack of an elite arm, and a tendency to hesitate too much, he has drawn comparisons to Baker Mayfield, and less often to Alex Smith. Player Profiler’s choice for a Howell comp is Sam Darnold. Howell’s current profile fits these comparisons well, and if he makes the changes he needs to make, he could gave a better career than all three. If he does not, he will fail as a starter and be relegated to a career backup.
Best Case Drafted By: Lions
Pretty much every top QB in this class would benefit from spending a year as a backup, and while all the suitors listed above can offer that, the Lions are the best destination for Howell. Many might say the Buccaneers are the best spot, where Howell can learn from Tom Brady and lead a team that has had recent success. But Chris Godwin may be gone from Tampa after playing this year on a franchise tag, Mike Evans will start the season having just turned 29, Leonard Fournette will turn 28 during the playoffs, and Brady and Rob Gronkowski could retire at any time. In both Seattle and New York, there is a better chance of Howell being forced to start at some point this season and, pending this week’s draft, may not have enough weapons for Howell, though that is most true with the Giants. I would rather see Howell go to the Lions. He can learn for a year as a backup and then work with D’Andre Swift, TJ Hockenson, and 2021 rookie Amon-Ra St. Brown. He would be a good pick at 32nd or 34th overall.
Worst Case Drafted By: Giants
While there is some hope of the Giants improving under new coach Brian Daboll, as I mentioned above, pending this year’s draft, the Giants lack adequate weapons and may need Howell to start sooner than he is ready for. The Seahawks are in a similar situation but have better weapons.
Fantasy Relevant in 2022?
If Howell is a team’s starter in 2022, it’s likely he is stepping into a pretty bad situation that will compound the effects of not yet being ready to take the wheel. In this case, Howell really won’t be on your redraft radar, perhaps even in a superflex or 2QB league. Of course, that would be even more true should Howell be drafted by a team that makes him a backup at first. The dynasty approach is different, but the same tempered expectations for 2022 apply.