Today, we continue our 2022 Prospect Profile series where we break down each prospect’s outlook for their potential rookie campaign in the NFL by assessing their individual strengths and weaknesses, reviewing potential landing spots, and giving our assessment of their potential fantasy relevance in the coming season.
The next player to continue our 2022 Prospect Profile series is Isaiah Spiller, Running Back, Texas A&M University.
Projected Draft Spot
2nd or 3rd round
Potential Suitors
Jets, Falcons, Texans, Eagles, Dolphins, Seahawks, Giants, Bills, Cardinals
Strengths
Until fairly recently, Isaiah Spiller was the consensus 2022 RB2. After being eclipsed by Kenneth Walker, Spiller’s stock in both the NFL draft and fantasy community has dropped. But Spiller has a lot going for him. He may not have high-end speed, but he has everything slower backs need: vision, patience, elusiveness, contact balance, missed and (to a lesser extent) broken tackles, footwork, and agility. Spiller is also underrated as a receiver. He is a tough, well-rounded running back whose play speed looks better than his 40-yard dash time (4.63). His skillset makes a zone running scheme destination favorable.
Weaknesses
Yes, there is the issue of Spiller’s lack of top speed, a lack of a good second gear. And while he is an underrated receiver, he needs to work on his routes. Ball security was an issue for Spiller at times, and while he positions himself well for blitz pick-up, he needs to work more on his pass protection.
Player Comparisons
Spiller has drawn comparisons to Kareem Hunt, Mike Davis, and TJ Yeldon when they were college prospects. Mark Ingram and Deuce McAllister as pros are two more. While Spiller is just slightly smaller and not quite as good a receiver, Antonio Gibson is another possible comparison. If Spiller hits his ceiling – or close to it – player comps that relate not just to style, but also performance, would be Arian Foster or Le’Veon Bell. One reason I like those comparisons is because each had what seems to be a short prime, even for running backs. Once Spiller loses a step, he will likely fade from relevance relatively soon.
Best Case Drafted By: Texans or Falcons
With so many teams looking for a running back – either because they want a lead back or because they are employing the increasingly popular committee/rotation approach – and with so many using a zone scheme, there are a lot of places Spiller could land, and a number of them could work out well. Among the potential suitors above, I like the Texans (picks 37, 68, and 80) and Falcons (picks 43. 58, and 74) the most. Both teams offer a clear path to good volume and use schemes that fit Spiller’s strengths. Additionally, both teams will look to throw to RBs more than average this year, adding to Spiller’s production possibilities. Buffalo of course offers a powerful offense, but Breece Hall and Kenneth Walker would more easily distinguish themselves from Devin Singletary than Spiller would.
Worst Case Drafted By: Giants
Among the suitors above, the Giants are perhaps the worst landing spot for Spiller. Their team (and crucially their offensive line) is in need of a lot of work, but they also already have a three-down lead back in Saquon Barkley. While Barkley may never be the same running back he once was, he will still warrant the bigger share of opportunities, limiting Spiller’s production. As I noted above, Spiller’s prime window could be short and he will need to take advantage of the speed he does have while he still has it. Serving as second fiddle to Barkley would inhibit that.
Fantasy Relevant in 2022?
Given that rookie RBs generally contribute more in their rookie year than most rookie WRs (though this may not be true anymore), it is very possible Spiller can be fantasy relevant from the beginning. The lowest draft capital I have seen him given so far is round 4, which, especially given how RBs have shifted down in the draft in recent years, is high enough to be confident Spiller will get opportunities on his new team. If that team has a hole at lead back, like the Texans and Falcons, it is quite possible Spiller is a high-end RB2 in 2022. Otherwise, he will likely be a bench stash with occasional flex possibilities.