2022 Prospect Profile: Matt Corral
Today, we continue our 2022 Prospect Profile series where we break down each prospect’s outlook for their potential rookie campaign in the NFL by assessing their individual strengths and weaknesses, reviewing potential landing spots, and giving our assessment of their potential fantasy relevance in the coming season.
The next player up is a dynamic dual-threat quarterback prospect whose position in mock drafts has swung wildly in recent months, Ole Miss quarterback Matt Corral.
Projected Draft Spot
First-round/early second-round
Potential Suitors
Lions, Panthers, Falcons, Seahawks, Saints, Steelers
Strengths
Corral was a productive starter for the Rebels, throwing for over 3,300 yards and rushing for over 500 yards in each of his last two seasons. He also refined his game in his final season, throwing just five interceptions, versus 14 a year prior. With a quick release and strong arm, he possesses plenty of upside. According to an AFC scout “it seems like he’s got enough instincts, accuracy, arm for people to get behind”, the NFL’s Tom Pelissero reported.
One of the main positives of his profile is his mobility. Corral possesses good athleticism, with the ability to extend plays with his legs. He also has the potential to provide fantasy managers with some rushing upside, evidenced by his 11 rushing touchdowns last year.
Weaknesses
Corral is, however, a polarizing prospect. He benefited significantly from the heavy play-action and RPO scheme implemented at Ole Miss with play-action accounting for just over 60% of Corral’s plays last season, according to PFF. The question now is whether he can improve his decision-making and work through progressions at the NFL level.
Additionally, at 6’1 212lbs, Corral is also somewhat undersized for a quarterback. Some have questioned his long-term durability, particularly given his physical running style.
Player Comparisons
One common comparison for the Ole Miss signal-caller has been the Jets’ first-round selection a year ago, Zach Wilson. Wilson and Corral are both undersized compared to the prototypical quarterback and are playmakers who can make use of their mobility.
The Ringer, meanwhile, recently called Corral a ‘mini–Marcus Mariota’. Both comparisons appear to fit well. All three are/were projects – raw prospects who ideally required time to develop to reach their full potential. The difference, however, is that Mariota and Wilson were thrust into starting jobs immediately. It appears unlikely Corral will see a similar scenario with similar draft capital.
Best-Case Drafted By: Steelers
Corral will likely need some time to fully develop and will benefit from sitting for the best part of the 2022 season. Landing in Pittsburgh would give him that luxury to develop behind Mitch Trubisky while he refines his game before taking over next year. The team likely has the strongest roster amongst QB-needy teams with good weapons both on the ground and through the air.
Corral also appears to fit what head coach Mike Tomlin is looking for. At the recent owners’ meeting, he said that “quarterback mobility is a more significant part of the game than it’s ever been in today’s game”. After having Big Ben under center in recent years it’s easy to see why, and Corral could provide that mobility.
Worst Case Drafted By: A team in the second round
One of the main concerns around Corral is his likely draft capital and subsequent long-term job security in the NFL. Recent mock drafts have shown little consensus as to when and which quarterbacks will be taken. While there is some buzz Corral could even be a top-10 pick, there appears to be an equal likelihood of him slipping out of the first round altogether.
The second round has been littered with quarterback prospects who never made an impact at the next level, and the chances of finding a franchise QB there appear to be negligible. If this were to happen to Corral, past examples demonstrate the likelihood he would become a regular starter is slim.
Fantasy Relevant Next Season?
Likely no. It is difficult for any rookie quarterback to be fantasy relevant, particularly on a regular basis. Even the supposedly loaded 2021 quarterback class struggled to provide consistent fantasy output and so expectations should be limited for this class. Corral is a raw prospect who is unlikely to be a day 1 starter (nor should we want him to be) and will therefore have limited opportunities to contribute to your fantasy teams. However, if he lands in a situation such as Pittsburgh or Seattle where there is a chance that he will start a handful of games in 2022, there may be some in which he is an occasional streaming option given his rushing upside.
Realistically the best-case scenario is that Corral develops this coming season and becomes the full starter in a year’s time. He possesses all the tools to be a starter at the next level and could be a shrewd target in the late first-round of superflex drafts if he receives first-round draft capital.