Today, we continue our 2022 Prospect Profile series where we break down each prospect’s outlook for their potential rookie campaign in the NFL by assessing their individual strengths and weaknesses, reviewing potential landing spots, and giving our assessment of their potential fantasy relevance in the coming season.
The next player to continue our 2022 Prospect Profile series is George Pickens, Wide Receiver, University of Georgia
Projected Draft Spot
2nd Round
Potential Suitors
Falcons, Bills, Bears, Browns, Packers, Texans, Colts, Chargers, Patriots, Saints, Jets, Titans
Strengths
George Pickens has great height for a wide receiver at 6’3″, even though his weight is less than prototypical (195 lbs) he has the frame that could allow him to put on more mass. Pickens has speed but his 40-yard dash (4.47) does not jump off the page. He is 13 months removed from ACL surgery, and he is not 100% healthy and recovered yet. That makes his time even more impressive. Based on his size that is great speed and he is expected to be faster than his combine time once he is fully healthy.
Pickens is athletic and is superb at contested catches. He has enough speed to get by defenders, but he takes advantage of his tall frame to high-point the ball to make tough catches when he does not get separation. Pickens’ college stats do not tell much of the story after breaking out his freshmen year due to a COVID-shortened season in 2020 and missing most of 2021 recovering from a torn ACL. However, when he was on the field he made plenty of big plays on the outside, over the middle, and in the redzone.
Weaknesses
George Pickens broke out at 18.5 years old (97th %), but we haven’t seen him improve from that point due to injuries. He has not had quality quarterbacks throwing him the ball either. Pickens could benefit from putting on at least 10 pounds of muscle mass. He can get pushed around by bigger cornerbacks with his current thinner frame. Pickens is great at making contested catches, but he needs to continue to develop his route running technique. If he became a route running technician then he could be a true alpha wide receiver with his size, speed, and ability to separate.
Pickens needs to refine his blocking technique. This sounds trivial for a wide receiver, but if he wants more playing time early in his career then he needs to be adequate at blocking. He can be aggressive, but he lacks proper technique and his weight is an issue when matched up against stronger defenders.
We have not seen George Pickens do much since 2019. He has plenty of exciting skills and there is so much potential, but there is still a risk of not fully recovering from his ACL injury or never putting all of his tools together to be effective at the NFL level.
Player Comparisons
Current Player: Josh Reynolds
This is not an exciting comparison, but they have similar body builds and speed. Reynolds’ had a slight frame coming into the NFL, but his height allowed him to be great at contested catches in college. Both players have a talent for tracking the ball in the air and manipulating their bodies to make tough catches in traffic. Josh Reynolds has not been special in the NFL, but if Pickens does not develop into a better route runner then he could struggle to separate from NFL defenders and just be an average wide receiver too.
Old School: A.J. Green
I know A.J. Green is still playing in the NFL, but he was drafted in 2011 so I will fudge “old school.” Try to look past the fact that Green and Pickens both played at the University of Georgia. They are similar heights and play at a similar speed, but Green was about 15 pounds heavier. When you watch Pickens run down the field it is reminiscent of Green. Green was drafted 4th overall, but Pickens will be late-1st round at the earliest. If Pickens could have been healthy and productive all three years then he could have been considered a Top-10 draft pick after all the hype from his freshman year. These player comparisons show the wide range of possibilities for George Pickens. He is a high-risk/high-reward prospect.
Best Case Drafted By: Green Bay Packers
After Davante Adams was traded to the Las Vegas Raiders, the Green Bay Packers need wide receivers to try to fill that massive void. George Pickens is a prototypical X receiver, and if he has a connection with Aaron Rodgers then Pickens could be a WR1 for fantasy football within his first few seasons. He would not have much competition for snaps as a rookie and should get plenty of playing time to hopefully accelerate his development. This landing spot would over-hype Pickens for fantasy football rookie drafts, but it is exciting to imagine Aaron Rodgers throwing him deep posts for touchdowns.
Worst Case Drafted By: New England Patriots
The New England Patriots need wide receivers because they have struggled at acquiring talent at the position through the draft and free agency for several seasons. Mac Jones’ skill set as a quarterback would not maximize Pickens’ potential. The Patriots prefer to operate their offense through the running game and short-passing game. Pickens can be dominant with slant routes due to his height and hands, but that does not maximize his big-play ability over the top of the defense. There is a greater chance that George Pickens would just be average on the Patriots because he would not get enough targets to have eye-catching stats.
Fantasy Relevant in 2022?
Short answer: no. Typically, rookie wide receivers are not fantasy relevant. We have been spoiled the last couple of seasons with Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase. If a rookie wide receiver is fantasy relevant it is usually in the 2nd half of the season after they are more comfortable in the system and adjusting to the higher level of play in the NFL. Pickens is still recovering from an ACL injury from 13 months ago. There is a good chance he is just getting back into shape as the 2022 season begins. As a rookie, the odds are his best-case scenario for being fantasy relevant in 2022 is later in the season if he is drafted to a good situation. Pickens will most likely not be drafted in 2022 redraft leagues unless he is in an amazing situation and is fully healthy with great reports from training camp. There is a lot of excitement for George Pickens but do not set your expectations high for 2022.
