Today, we continue our 2022 Prospect Profile series where we break down each prospect’s outlook for their potential rookie campaign in the NFL by assessing their individual strengths and weaknesses, reviewing potential landing spots, and giving our assessment of their potential fantasy relevance in the coming season.
The next player to continue our 2022 Prospect Profile series is a Quarterback with as much raw talent as any in recent NFL Draft History, yet he is a very risky selection for where he is projected to be drafted. I am, of course, speaking about Malik Willis, Quarterback, Liberty University.
Projected Draft Spot
1st Round
Potential Suitors
Titans, Seahawks, Falcons, Steelers, Panthers, Lions, Saints
Strengths
It is common in the months leading to the NFL Draft to hear terms like “elite athlete”, “huge upside”, “raw talent”, and “untapped potential”. For Malik Willis who originally signed to play college ball as a safety at Virginia Tech before decommitting from Virginia Tech to transfer to Auburn, who offered him a late scholarship to play Quarterback, those terms fit the bill. While at Auburn he saw the field mostly on designed run plays and ultimately made the decision in 2019 to transfer to Liberty University in order to be a starting QB for Hugh Freeze. There he threw for 4,886 yards, ran for 1,764 yards, and accounted for 69 touchdowns. He showed signs of being a fast learner with the reports of his progression at the Senior Bowl. Scouts and coaches were enamored with his physical tools, off-the-field personality, and the improvement they saw over just a week of working with better teammates/coaches.
Willis is a true dual-threat Quarterback, whose combination of a rocket arm and his blazing speed has many teams considering him as a Top 10 pick, despite the fact it could be 2-3 years before he’s ready to be a starter in the NFL. He is physically built like a safety, the position he originally was going to play at Virginia Tech. He is like a young Big Ben in terms of being difficult for pass rushers to bring down but with Lamar Jackson’s speed.
Weaknesses
Before getting into his on-the-field concerns, you have to start with the fact he played at Liberty for a majority of his snaps at Quarterback in the NCAA. He rarely played against defenders with NFL talent, making it even more difficult to grade him. To make matters worse, he played six games versus big-time programs and only Ole Miss was ranked out of all of them. In those games, he threw 7 interceptions and took 28 sacks. In fairness to him, his offensive line was awful, even with his ability to run, he was sacked 50 times his last season in college. One big concern with his on-the-field play in college is the fact that he regressed across the board in 2021 compared to 2020, with the exception of throwing 4 more TDs. He started the season with five incredible games, throwing 11 touchdowns to 0 interceptions, having a completion percentage of 65% or better in all five (72% or better in 3 of 5), and rushing for 418 yards and 6 scores (over half of his season totals in both). He finished the regular season by throwing 3 interceptions in 3 of 7 games, being sacked 21 times in his last 3 games, and throwing for 232 yards or less in 5 of his 7 games. Against Ole Miss, the best team he played in his two seasons at Liberty, he threw three interceptions, 0 touchdowns, and was sacked 9 times. His bad finish to his college career has many questioning did teams figure out the blueprint to slowing down a very talented Quarterback.
The list of MAJOR concerns scouts and NFL organizations have about him being a successful starting QB in the NFL is long! In the passing game, he needs to work on not throwing off his back foot, improve on taking the short and intermediate passing options when available, and his decision-making. He, also, has a tendency to rely on his legs too quickly. His game film shows there were many instances where he chose to tuck the ball to run when he had time still to throw the ball. Willis tends to drop back too far in passing situations, instead of stepping up in the pocket which led to losing more yardage on sacks than was necessary during his career. He also had a tendency to force passes into tight windows trying to make the homerun play rather than take the easy underneath receiving option. It is this lack of patience that could REALLY hurt his play on the NFL level.
Player Comparisons
Old School (Michael Vick)
Willis does not have the resume, nor has he proved that he can thrive against NFL-level talent in college as Vick did. If Willis would have stayed at Auburn, won the starting job, and put together the same two seasons he did at Liberty, at a major college, he would unquestionably be the number 1 pick like Vick was. It is hard to not think about Michael Vick when you see a Quarterback who is an athlete like Willis running around, with that speed, and has the ability to throw a football 50-60 yards with a flick of the wrist.
New School (Josh Allen)
It is easy to think only of Josh Allen who was arguably the best Quarterback in football in the second half of this NFL season in 2021. However, Allen in 2018 was a draft prospect whose narratives, despite his immense raw talent, were negative. Scouts questioned Allen’s level of competition he faced during college (he faired poorly against the good programs in the Mountain West Conference and programs outside of it). He struggled with his decision-making/accuracy, had too many turnovers, and sacks. He needed to improve his decision-making, and needed to improve his underneath and finesse throws. His strengths included having a very strong arm, great athletic abilities, being a natural leader, throwing well on the run, great mobility, and he was difficult to bring down.
Sound familiar?
Best Case Drafted By: Steelers
This is by far the best answer for Malik Willis and increases his chances of being a great starting quarterback in the NFL tenfold. This is an organization that has had three head coaches since 1969. Talk about stability, and Mike Tomlin has made no secret of how much he would love to add Malik Willis to his roster, and betting sites now have the Steelers as the favorites to draft him. The Steelers have proved under the ownership of The Rooney’s that they understand you need patience to be a great franchise in the NFL. They recently signed Mitch Tribisky, who has two years on his current contract. They could let Tribisky start for those two years and let Willis sit and learn. It also doesn’t hurt that General Manager Kevin Colbert is leaving as their general manager, after 21 years, meaning the new GM will not be afraid to potentially trade up for a QB who more than likely wouldn’t start for at least a year and worry about their job security. This landing spot by far makes the most sense to me and in my opinion, gives Malik the best chance of being successful.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have emerged as the new betting favorite to draft Malik Willis at @FDSportsbook:
— Jaime Eisner (@JaimeEisner) April 21, 2022
Steelers (+250)
Panthers (+350)
Saints (+350)
Falcons (+600)
Seahawks (+600)
Lions (+900)
Commanders (20/1)
Giants (20/1)
Texans (30/1)
Colts (30/1)
Eagles (30/1)#NFLDraft
Worst Case Drafted By: Saints
This is not solely because I am an Atlanta Falcons fan and by our arch rivals, the Saints, selecting Willis would ensure he becomes the next great QB in the NFL ( I mean the Falcons are the “Murphy’s Law” of football teams). The actual reason why the Saints are the worst landing spot is twofold. First, head coach and QB guru Sean Payton stepped down as Head Coach in the offseason. Second, Mickie Loomis has been the GM for almost 15 years, and if things go south without Payton as the head coach, I could see Loomis pressuring his new head coach to start Willis before he is ready, in order to potentially save his job.
Fantasy Relevant Next Season?
If you are asking if Willis will be fantasy relevant in redraft leagues this season, the answer is a firm no. However, in Dynasty leagues, I think he needs to be the #1 selection.
I know this might seem insane when I have said numerous times in this profile he needs to sit for a year or two, but Willis’s upside, especially with his running ability makes him too high to pass on. Look at the two QBs I compared to him coming out of college in Vick and Allen. Vick was a fantasy cheat code during his career and Josh Allen will probably be the #1 QB off the board in 2022 fantasy drafts. If Willis does overcome all the questions and concerns listed above, his ceiling is so high that you could be kicking yourself in 5 years like the teams that passed on him in the draft if that’s the case.
Thanks for reading my 2022 Prospect Profile on Malik Willis. Make sure to check out our other prospect profiles on our website by clicking here!
