4-EYED ROOKIE SNAPSHOT: Travis Etienne

June 15, 2021 Brian Ford

After selecting his college teammate Trevor Lawrence first overall, the Jaguars picked Travis Etienne 25th overall. Etienne joins an offense with good weapons, but where will he fit in? If we believe Urban Meyer’s draft night quote, he is the team’s third-down back. Even if that is the extent of his role, Etienne can still contribute from both a real-life and fantasy perspective, but how much is unclear. Let’s dig into this situation more in our latest 4-EYED ROOKIE SNAPSHOT!

College Background

No one can deny Etienne’s college production profile at Clemson University. He was heavily involved as a true freshman in 2017 then broke out as a sophomore in 2018 in the team’s national championship season. In 2018 and 2019  he rushed for 1658 and 1614 yards, respectively. Etienne added very good receiving production in 2019, totaling 37 catches for 432 yards and 4 touchdowns. Already a very good NFL prospect, Etienne made the surprising choice to come back to school in 2020. His yard per carry decreased, but he still had a very good year, including another excellent performance as a pass-catcher (588 yards). Etienne totaled almost 5000 yards rushing over his four years at Clemson with 70 touchdowns and averaged 7.2 yards per carry. He became a great pass catcher with time and was a top NFL prospect after four productive years.

Etienne has very good speed (4.41 40-yard dash time) and acceleration, and gets to the outside and turns upfield well. He has good contact balance. One knock on Etienne has been his lack of vision, but more accurately it is a lack of patience waiting for holes to develop. Another concern is how he stops his feet when bracing for contact. Etienne also needs to improve his pass blocking. He was some analysts’ RB1 in pre-draft rankings and was really never lower than RB3. Overall, his skills and experience convinced Jacksonville to pull the trigger on Etienne in the first round.

Team Situation

Etienne joins a Jaguars offense that has good weapons. Fellow rookie Lawrence is a generational quarterback prospect. Wide receivers DJ Chark and Marvin Jones will be reliable targets for Lawrence. The questions around Etienne arise when we think about how he will fit in relation to wide receiver Laviska Shenault and fellow running back James Robinson. 

Robinson, a 2020 UDFA, performed very well last year and the Etienne pick was somewhat surprising given Robinson’s production. If we take Meyer at his word, Robinson should be the team’s primary back, with Etienne taking the field for passing downs on what should be a pass-heavy team. However, if we follow the rule that draft capital will eat, Etienne could eventually overtake Robinson. 

To the surprise of many, Meyer was working Etienne out at wide receiver at the team’s Spring OTAs. Meyer said, “Worst case scenario, you have a running back that’s elite with receiver skills.” Interesting. If Etienne lines up out wide or at least is playing in a gadgety role, Shenault would seem to be competition for touches. If we follow the draft capital rule and consider that Etienne was brought in by the current coach and Shenault was not, Etienne could see a number of touches at Shenault’s expense.

So, therefore, for the time being, Etienne’s role currently is unclear. This situation will be interesting to watch as training camp and the preseason unfold.

Fantasy Outlook

Since Etienne’s role is unclear at the moment, so is his fantasy outlook, at least for 2021. Since Jacksonville spent a first-round pick on him, Etienne should get plenty of opportunities to prove himself and earn touches. The team will try to get him the ball in space to make good on his speed and excellent open-field skills. A likely scenario is that he starts as a pass-catching back and runs some routes out wide, too, eating into the production of both Robinson and Shenault. There will be room to grow, however. Meyer does not have much invested in Robinson, the previous regime’s UDFA. He could increase Etienne’s workload as the season progresses, and Etienne could get touches on first and second downs, too. If that is the case, you are likely going to get great value from where you draft Etienne. Even if he remains in the receiving and gadget role, the team’s passing volume and Etienne’s skills should give him a decent fantasy floor. 

In redraft, Etienne’s early ADP has him as a mid-level RB2, which, given his short-term outlook, seems about right. He should produce enough to maintain value at that draft position. If I were selecting him, I would want a solid RB3 option as well in case the rookie takes time to develop or does not see the touches we expect at first. 

In dynasty, Etienne is an early first-round rookie draft pick in 1QB formats and a mid-first-round rookie pick in Superflex. I have more faith in Etienne’s longer-term prospects than I do in his 2021 production, and I think he will pay dividends on the draft capital dynasty managers are spending on him. In startups, Etienne is often going ahead of not only teammate Robinson, but also some more veteran players like David Montgomery, Chris Carson, and even Miles Sanders. 

Given the uncertainty of his role at the moment, Etienne’s short-term fantasy outlook is unclear, though even if he is only a third-down back and gets occasional targets out wide, his floor should be good enough to justify his ADP. If, as the summer progresses, we expect a bigger role for Etienne in 2021, his ADP will rise and the relative value may not be there. That said, if it looks like Etienne will be the Jaguars’ primary back as we approach the start of the season, his skills make him a good bet for higher-end RB2 numbers and a productive 2021. Longer-term, Etienne should be a valuable dynasty asset for several years. 

Make sure to see where I rank Travis Etienne as the summer progresses over on our 4-EYED RANKINGS page here!