Will This Be Jordan Howard’s Resurgence?
The next team up in a series that will answer one important 4-EYED fantasy question from each of the 32 clubs in the NFL heading into the 2020 season is the Miami Dolphins.
What if I told you that a team which ranked 32nd (last) in the league in both pass blocking and run blocking per Pro Football Focus (PFF) went out in free agency and signed two new offensive linemen and in the 2020 NFL draft went out and drafted three starting-caliber offensive linemen to ultimately rebuild that offensive line? Would you be shocked? Probably not. It makes sense that a team’s deficiency is something that is usually addressed every offseason. Ok, what if I told you that very same team’s best offensive acquisition in free agency was a running back who was, between 2016-2019, the RB17, RB19, RB1, & RB16 in pass-blocking? Impressed? Again, probably not. That’s what full-backs are for. Ok, now what if I told you that person was actually a half back that over the course of his 4-year career averaged close to 1,000 yards rushing, 11.9 fantasy points/gm in 0.5 PPR scoring, and 7.5 TD per season. Now, are you starting to get impressed with what that team is doing in terms of personnel acquisitions?!
The answer should be yes.
The Miami Dolphins recognized a glaring need to improve their offense from the inside out as they drafted a new offensive tackle in Austin Jackson out of USC, a new guard in Robert Hunt of Louisiana Layfayette, another new guard in Solomon Kindley out of Georgia, and a franchise quarterback in Tua Tagovailoa out of Alabama. Furthermore, they went out in free agency and signed guard Ereck Flowers, who had a career resurgence in Washington in 2019, and center Ted Karras to help bring a stabilizing veteran presence into that offensive line group. Oh, and they signed Jordan Howard who was the halfback I was referencing earlier. Along with fellow running back Matt Breida, who the team traded for from the San Francisco 49ers during draft weekend, the running back group, and offense as a whole, is set to have an all-new look in 2020. From a fantasy standpoint, one has to wonder with being on a revitalized team if Jordan Howard is due for a resurgence, from a fantasy standpoint, this season?
Reasons for Optimism
Breaking out into the league in 2016, in 13 games as the starter, Howard put up an impressive 1,313 yards on the ground, 6 TDs, and 14.4 fantasy points/gm. When given the lead role in 2017 he rushed for 1,122 yards, scored 9 TDs, and averaged 11.8 fantasy points per game. The offensive lines in both those seasons were rated in the Top 10 in run blocking according to PFF. The running scheme was more of a power, straight forward rushing attack which favored Howard’s rushing style. In 2018, under new coach Matt Nagy, Howard was placed into a system that emphasized more of a zone stretch blocking scheme and favored running backs with the ability to catch passes more frequently. That style of play wasn’t what Jordan Howard was best suited for. Oh, by the way even in that poor fit of a system he racked up 935 rushing yards, 9 TDs, and averaged 10.6 fantasy points/game. Not to mention it seems like he played for a coach who would rather place a square peg into a round hole than adapt his offense to his team’s personnel.
After being traded to the Philadelphia Eagles in 2019 many were hoping that landing spot would be where Howard would revitalize his career given he would be running behind one of the best offensive lines in football. However, the Eagles then went ahead and drafted Miles Sanders out of Penn State and a should injury to Howard midway through the 2019 season later, the rest of was history for his time in Philadelphia. Oh, and by the way, in 10 games he rushed for 525 yards, 6 TDs, and averaged 10.6 fantasy points per game. In games in which he was given double-digit rushing attempts, he averaged 13.8 fantasy points per game. In games in which he was given 15 attempts or more, he averaged 21.1 fantasy points per game.
I mentioned the last stat because it showed that when given the bulk of the carries running behind a good offensive line Howard had some elite fantasy value. Now he goes to a team with a rebuilt offensive line and a rookie quarterback at the helm, a rookie quarterback needing all the protection he can get, and NOW all of a sudden there is a reason for HOPE for Jordan Howard. Fantasy is all about volume and opportunity. What do you think the odds are for a running back to be on the field a majority of snaps, a running back known for his pass-blocking prowess, to eventually find plenty of opportunities running the ball? I’d say those odds are pretty high. And when given plenty of opportunity “JoHo” has not disappointed. Remember VOLUME IS KING!
Reasons for Pessimism
“Jordan Howard can’t catch!”
“He has no 0.5 PPR or PPR value!”
These are common phrases that are used to describe Howard’s value in fantasy. Nowadays if a running back can’t run and catch they are immediately thrown to the scrap heap. Despite all of Howard’s “success” he’s only been able to average in the low double-digits in fantasy points per game and has been on the decline in terms of yardage production each of his 4 seasons in the NFL. What does that make him, a FLEX at best? Aren’t there better FLEX options in your drafts this season?! Not to mention despite the revamping of the Dolphins offensive line it’s not like they are going to be one of the best lines in all of football. Who is to say Howard will have success like he did when given plenty of volume in Philadelphia? These are completely different circumstances. Oh, by the way the Dolphins traded for Matt Breida who can run, catch, and is one of the fastest players in the NFL. Surely, given the youth on that offensive line and it’s lack of cohesion, Miami will need to pass more to move the ball and thus utilize Breida’s skillset more than Howard’s! Not only that but Chan Gailey’s offensive scheme is more of a pass-first, zone rushing scheme further showing why Howard would be a poor fit for this offense as well.
Answering The Question
Is Jordan Howard due for a resurgence, from a fantasy standpoint, this season?
Despite the youth on this offense and based on the opportunity he will be afforded I say the answer is a resounding YES! Miami spent a lot of draft capital making sure this offensive line will be up to snuff in 2020 as well as spent a LOT of money on the defensive side of the ball in free agency. This notion that Miami is going to be blown out of games, forcing Breida to take over as the lead back, is a little tough to swallow. As far as Chan Gailey’s offensive scheme is concerned, while it is known for its creative passing attack and zone-stretch concepts it’s not like Howard can’t adapt to that system. I mean for crying out loud he ran in that type of system in 2018 and he almost put up 1,000 yards and 9 TDs. The spread like nature of this offense will also take the pressure off of this offensive line as fewer defenders will be able to crowd the line of scrimmage thus allowing this offensive line to get plenty of push upfront and thus creating more open running lanes for Howard. Not to mention good coordinators find ways to adapt to the skillset of their personnel and make no mistake Gailey is a good coordinator.
The very heart of Gailey’s philosophy, despite it’s pass-heavy nature, is to run the ball to win games. I predict that the Dolphins defense will keep scores low in games played and will look to control the clock by leaning on the running game. Again it all comes down to opportunity. Which running back do YOU think they’ll want on the field as a pass blocker for their young quarterback? That’s right it’s Howard. Which running back is more than likely to have more opportunities lining up on offense? That’s right it’s Howard. Volume is king and Howard is about to see plenty of it. Look for Howard to feel right at home in Miami and return his RB2 standalone value in 2020.