The next team up in a series that will answer one important 4-EYED fantasy question from each of the 32 clubs in the NFL heading into the 2020 season is the New York Giants.
With the 6th overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft, the New York Giants select QB Daniel Jones. Needless to say, the Giants’ fanbase was not thrilled with the pick. While many were hoping that they would have taken Josh Allen as the heir apparent to Eli Manning, it may soon be seen that Jones is the better of the two, in both fantasy and real football! But, the thrilling question of the week is….”Will Daniel Jones be a fantasy QB1 in 2020?”
UPSIDE:
Daniel Jones entered 2019 on the heels of the NFL Draft, which was needless to say a social media nightmare. Everywhere were videos of his short throws to Saquon Barkley, or short underneaths to the WR. Fast forward 16 months and Jones’ name is being bounced around as the leader of the potentially dangerous New York Giants. While last year might have started off rather tumultuously, it ended optimistically! The season totals of 3,027 yards passing with 24 TD and 12 INT in only 12 games. In addition to the passing totals, he also rushed 45 times for 279 yards and 2 TDs. While these numbers would be more than acceptable for any rookie QB, add in the fact that he didn’t play a single game last year with all 5 of his weapons on the field at once!! Last year, when he had 4 of the 5 in the fold (9 of the 12 starts), his average stat line looked like this: 260 yds/2.12 TD/.5INT/25 rushyds/.25 ruTD. If you extrapolate those numbers to a full 16 game season, you get a stat line of this: 4,160 PaYds/33.9 PaTD/8INT/400 RuYds/4 RuTD/11 fumbles. In 4pt passing TD leagues, he would have scored 327 points…which would have been QB6 in 2019 and QB5 in 2018.
While having 4 or 5 of those weapons on the field at once would be a benefit, in his entire body of work, he also put up some notable figures, regardless of who was on the field. Jones was 11th in TD%, which for a rookie is unheard of, especially with the rotating pieces. Many were also quick to join in the social media berating of Jones’ passing ability, just highlighting the short and intermediate targets on highlight reels. According to Sports Info Solutions, Jones was the NFL’s most accurate passer of balls with 20+ air yards in 2019! This bodes extremely well for Darius Slayton and the rest of the WR core.
Not only is the upside optimistic with his arm, but his legs also provide a much-needed boost to his floor! Last year, Jones rushed for 279 yards in only 12 games. It is pretty safe to assume that the rushing totals might have been even better if not for an ankle sprain which cost him 2 games.
The final piece to the QB1 puzzle is the week winning and league winning upside on a week to week basis. What do I mean? Jones might have finished the season as the QB14 on a per-game basis, but he had multiple weeks as THE #1 QB overall. (Weeks 8 & 16). Only Lamar Jackson had more. Jones also had weeks where he finished in the top 6 (weeks 3 & 10)
Reasons for concern:
Let’s start with the obvious elephant in the room…FUMBLES! Jones led all of the NFL last year with 18 fumbles. The saving grace is that there is no one looking over his shoulder should the fumble-itis hit. In addition to the fumbles, Jones also ranked in the bottom 12 in both INT % and Sacks. As a rookie signal-caller, it’s easy to understand how fast the game comes at you, but it will be his 2nd-year adoption to the league that will determine his fantasy success.
It is easy to highlight the areas of success, extrapolate, and postulate success. What shouldn’t be forgotten are the weeks that Jones seemingly disappeared, which would kill your fantasy team as your #1 QB. As in weeks 5, 7, 9, and 17 when he finished outside the top 16. Sure, QB’s are going to have up and down weeks, but its this consistency that gives me reason for pause.
What could easily be mentioned in both the “upside” and the “reason to be worried” section could be the offensive line and the offensive weapons. Last year, the offensive line was atrocious, evident by the high sack numbers. While they have addressed the O-line in the draft (4th overall pick Andrew Thomas), the loss of Nate Solder doesn’t help. This is an offensive line that needs to take that next step if Daniel Jones is going to be successful. Let’s also discuss the offensive weapons. While it’s evident that if they are all healthy, the offense definitely operates a lot more cohesively. Unfortunately, this is a unit that doesn’t exactly have health on their side.
Finally, let’s take a look at their schedule. Most importantly, the first 4 games. Pitt, Chi, SF, and LAR. That is a rough way to start a season off! Throw in Baltimore and Seattle later in the season and it won’t be easy sledding.
The VERDICT:
I am BUYING the Daniel Jones hype.
He finished just outside of the QB1 conversation last year as a rookie. The offensive line should be better. How much? That will be directly tied to the learning curve for Andrew Thomas and the rebound year for Kevin Zeitler. I think the offensive line will gel, and help keep those sack totals, and as a result, the fumbles should come down. If there is anything to learn, Thomas will have a trial by fire initiation with the first 4 games!
The offensive weapons: First and foremost, having Saquon Barkley on the field is the best correlation to success in my eyes. Being such a dual-threat option, he immediately raises the Daniel Jones ceiling. As I mentioned above, he never played a game with all 5 of his dynamic offensive weapons. With a little luck, the offense could be a very strong unit in 2020.
The Makeup: Jones is an elite level athlete with a good football IQ. I realize that athletic ability and IQ might not show up on any of our fantasy rankings, but it goes a long way in my confidence.
So where do I see Jones’ final ranking at the end of 2020? I see a low end QB1 with week winning upside as he had shown in 2019. Currently going as QB16, it won’t take much of an investment to return significant value!
