The next team up in a series that will answer one important 4-EYED fantasy question from each of the 32 clubs in the NFL heading into the 2020 season is the Indianapolis Colts.
A year on from Andrew Luck’s shock retirement last summer, the Indianapolis Colts have made a number of fantasy-relevant moves this off-season. The Colts first signed veteran quarterback Philip Rivers on a one year $25m contract, before taking two offensive playmakers in the second round of the draft in Michael Pittman Jr and Jonathan Taylor.
Amid a disappointing year offensively in 2019, one bright spot was the offensive line. At the end of last season, the Colts ranked as the third-best offensive line in the league according to PFF, and have moved up to first ahead of the 2020 season. The Colts running game could be a fantasy gold mine this coming year given Rivers’ tendency to throw to the running back, combined with the elite protection and the fact they rushed 471 times last year, the fifth most in the league. But with a more crowded backfield in 2020, which Colts running back should we target in drafts?
Jonathan Taylor
Jonathan Taylor was the third running back taken in this year’s draft, only behind Clyde Edwards-Helaire and D’Andre Swift. Taylor enjoyed an outstanding three years at Wisconsin winning the Doak Walker award, given to the nation’s best collegiate running back, in back-to-back years in 2018 and 2019. His stats show just why he has been so widely heralded, with the second-round pick averaging 6.7 yards per carry over his time with the Badgers, reaching an astonishing 6,174 rushing yards and amassing 50 touchdowns on the ground. Taylor looks to be an elite runner, running a 4.39 in his 40-yard dash at the combine, who should be able to step up at the professional level.
The gamble with drafting Taylor is how the unusual off-season and the pandemic will affect how much he is used, particularly in the opening weeks. Given his obvious playmaking ability, the coaching staff will want him involved as much as possible. In an ordinary season, people would be able to make assessments based on training camp and pre-season games, but it looks like we’ll be making these decisions partially blind with the NFL and NFLPA reportedly agreeing to scrap this year’s preseason games.
Taylor’s ADP currently stands as a low-end RB2 at pick 53, according to FantasyPros ADP data. This means he is being taken in a similar range to the likes of Mark Ingram, Devin Singletary and David Johnson, as well as some high-profile wide receiver options such as DK Metcalf, DJ Chark, Stefon Diggs and Robert Woods.
Marlon Mack
Marlon Mack is coming off the best year of his career, in which he broke 1,000 yards for the first time. In total the former fourth-round pick saw 247 rushes in 2019 for 1,091 yards and 8 touchdowns in 14 games and now enters his contract year. The main questions around Mack this season are how the Colts will split work between him and Taylor, and how that workload may shift as the season progresses. Speaking in early June, head coach Frank Reich described the situation as a “1-1 punch” and given the amount of work available and how this off-season has unfolded, Mack is more likely to begin the year as the starter. A concern around Mack, however, is his lack of third-down work. He saw just 17 targets last season and with Hines coming into his third year and plenty of other weapons available, similar stats are to be expected in 2020.
At his current ADP, Mack looks to be a solid value given that he will likely be given plenty of work early in the season. He is being drafted as the RB33, according to FantasyPros, around running backs in similar situations such as Damien Williams, Kerryon Johnson, and Ronald Jones II.
Nyheim Hines
Hines saw his role as the third-down back increase in 2019, receiving a total of 58 targets last season, the fourth most on the team, resulting in 320 yards from 44 catches. Despite increased competition for targets with TY Hilton and Parris Campbell both returning after injury-plagued seasons, and the addition of Michael Pittman Jr, the Colts coaching staff still see a role for Hines. “Nyheim will be very much integrated into the gameplan, on all three downs” Reich said last month, and Philip Rivers’ use of running backs in the passing game shows the clear potential. Just last year Austin Ekeler saw 108 targets, the second most on the team, while Melvin Gordon saw 55. Hines’ ADP stands at pick 174, the 55th running back off the board. While Hines is certainly worth looking at in the final rounds of the draft, it will be difficult to rely on him given the additional weapons.
Answering the question
There is always a risk when drafting rookies, and with this strange off-season, the risk is even greater. Jonathan Taylor is clearly a supremely talented running back and will likely be a stud in the coming years. But given the uncertainty, it may be hard to rely on him in the opening weeks. And in the end, it may become a Miles Sanders-type situation, with Taylor starting slow and potentially winning the full job later in the season. With training camp (hopefully) just around the corner, it’ll be important to try and determine how Taylor is progressing.
This isn’t to say you shouldn’t draft Taylor. But if you do, you need to be cognizant of the fact that both Mack and Hines will both play key roles in the offense and consider the opportunity cost at his ADP. This means that later in the draft you should look to target safer players, maybe even some boring players.
