The next team up in a series that will answer one important 4-EYED fantasy question from each of the 32 clubs in the NFL heading into the 2020 season is the Los Angeles Rams. Today I’ll dive into the question of which receiver to roster!
The Rams threw the ball on 61.2% of plays, compared to running just 38.8% of the time in 2019. The Rams were one of nine teams to have over 600 pass attempts. Their 632 pass attempts only trailed the Falcons last season. Just from that information alone, this wide receiver room has tremendous value in fantasy football. FantasyPros currently has the Ram’s top two receivers at an ADP of WR13 and WR25. Overall, Woods is being drafted about 25 picks later, so which player do you draft?
COOPER KUPP
Cooper Kupp finished the 2019 season as the number four wide receiver in half-point PPR scoring. Kupp is my favorite to lead the NFL in slot receptions next year. Kupp was targeted 99 times from the slot in 2019. Those targets produced a very nice 69 receptions, 853 yards, and 5 touchdowns. His 853 receiving yards via the slot led the NFL. Cooper Kupp had a whopping seven games with double-digit targets in 2019. After starting the season with four 100 yard receiving games in the first five weeks, Kupp failed to record a 100 yard game following the team’s Week 9 bye. To be fair, he did end the season with a receiving touchdown in five straight weeks.
Kupp finished the 2019 season with the 11th most receiving yards among wide receivers with 1,161 yards. Only Kenny Golladay was able to top the 10 touchdowns that Kupp produced a season ago. His 94 catches ranked seventh among wide receivers, just edging out Robert Woods and his 90 catches. Cooper Kupp’s 134 targets ranked 11th at the position, but teammate, Robert Woods, has actually led the team in targets each of the past two seasons. Kupp ranked 15th in Targets Per Game among wide receivers who saw at least 4.5 targets per game in 2019. Robert Woods settled in at number eight on that list.
Robert Woods
No team had more slot yards from wide receivers than the Rams in 2019. Only the Patriots and Buccaneers produced more total slot yards than the 1,729 the Rams put up last season. Cooper Kupp is one of the best slot receivers in football, but Robert Woods can do it all. Even with Kupp hogging up targets from the slot, Woods has over 500 receiving yards from the slot in each of the past two seasons. How often the Rams utilize Woods from the slot is a thing to note. 537 of Robert Woods’ 1,134 yards in 2019 came via the slot. Not only is Woods heavily used out of the slot, but over the past two seasons, only Cordarrelle Patterson has seen more than Woods’ 36 rushing attempts. Adding 272 yards on the ground to your stats over the last two seasons is a nice little boost to your fantasy stock. His 157 rushing yards in 2018 were the most by a 1,000-yard receiver since Joey Galloway ran for 154 yards in ’95. Can we expect a third straight season with over 100 rushing yards from Robert Woods in 2020?
Since 2018, Woods’ 256 total targets ranks 10th in the NFL. I mentioned Kupp scoring in 5 straight games to end the season, so it is only fair to check in on what Bobby Trees produced from Weeks 13-17. Woods’ averaged 94.2 yards per game on 7.8 catches a game. Woods averaged a whopping 11.8 targets per game over the final weeks of the season. He finished as WR10 in half-point PPR formats in 2018. He followed that up as WR17 last season but is currently going as the 25th receiver off the board. Yards After Catch is a key stat into producing a top fantasy wide receiver. Among wide receivers who saw a minimum of 4.5 Targets Per Game, Rob Woods trailed only Chris Godwin in YAC Per Game. Cooper Kupp ranked fourth on that list.
The Verdict
My biggest reasoning for taking Woods over Kupp is what their snap share looks like when the team runs with 12 Personnel. Kupp’s snap share, while the Rams were in 12 Personnel, is concerning. In 2019, the Rams had eight games in which they used 12 Personnel over 15% of the time. He averaged a 66.63% snap share in those eight games. The Rams never used 12 Personnel more than 7% of the time in the other eight games. In those eight games, Kupp’s snap share sat at 94.5%. Do with that as you please.
Robert Woods has back to back 1,000-yard seasons and shows no signs of slowing down. He has over 500 yards from the slot in each of the last two seasons and has back to back season with over 100 yards on the ground. Robert Woods can do it all and won’t come off the field. Cooper Kupp is one of the best slot receivers in football, but the Rams don’t move Kupp all over the field like they do with Robert Woods. With an ADP difference of just 25 spots, this is a decision you may be forced to make come draft day. I’ll be grabbing Bobby Trees over Kupp.
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