The next team up in a series that will answer one important 4-EYED fantasy question from each of the 32 clubs in the NFL heading into the 2020 season is the Jacksonville Jaguars.
After an injury-plagued 2018 in which he only played in eight games, Leonard Fournette had a bounce-back year last season, reaching the highest rushing yard total of his career. Overall the former LSU running back played in all but one game, seeing 265 rushes for 1,152 yards and three touchdowns, the 7th most rushing yards in the league. On top of this, Fournette saw 100 targets last year, reeling in 76 catches for 522 yards. This represents his best season by far in the passing game, receiving over 30% more targets in 2019 than the 2017 and 2018 seasons combined (58 targets).
Fournette now enters the final year of his rookie contract after Jacksonville failed to pick up his 5th-year option. The running back has had a fairly turbulent off-season with constant trade rumors, while there has been increasing negativity surrounding the Jaguars in the coming season. So as we approach draft season, what can we expect from Fournette in 2020? Will he repeat his stellar season, or will he regress? And how should fantasy managers approach him in drafts?
The Positives
Let’s start with the positives. As mentioned, Fournette saw a noticeable improvement in the 2019 season, the best year of his short NFL career. Fournette’s yards per carry figure jumped to 4.3 in 2020, up from 3.3 a year prior, while there was also an increase in broken tackles from three in the eight games he played in 2018 to 16 last year. Jacksonville didn’t take a running back in the 2020 draft and looking at the other options available, Fournette can be projected to maintain the majority of the workload again; after taking 68.1% of the Jaguars’ carries last year.
Fournette should also be in line for some positive touchdown regression in 2020, after a surprising fall in trips to the endzone last season. The Jaguars scored the fewest rushing touchdowns in the league in 2019 with three, despite being 17th in rushing yards. Jacksonville had the highest pass to rush touchdown ratio in the league in 2019 at 8.0, compared to a league average of 2.1 and double Detroit Lions, the next highest team, at 4.0.
Fournette, who scored all three of the Jags rushing touchdowns last year, scored more touchdowns the previous year with five, despite playing in seven fewer games and almost 40% fewer yards in 2018. All in all, this means that should Fournette see a similar workload on the ground, we can expect an uptick in touchdowns in 2020.
Concerns
One of the biggest concerns for Fournette in 2020 is the likely reduction in receiving work, following the addition of Chris Thompson in free agency. Thompson has seen at least 50 targets in each of the last four years, despite only playing in all 16 games once. The unexpected jump in receptions was likely to be unsustainable in 2020 anyway, and as Todd Barns of Fantasy In Frames rightly pointed out in his piece, the arrival of Thompson means Fournette’s usage in the passing game should fall considerably.
Another worry for Fournette is the fact that the Jaguars look to be one of the worst teams in the league, and are likely to see even fewer scoring opportunities in 2020. The fearsome Jacksonville defense of a few years ago has now been completely depleted and the team appears to be destined towards a top-5 pick in next year’s draft. This, combined with the aforementioned trade rumors, leaves a lot of question marks surrounding Fournette as we edge ever closer to the start of the 2020 season.
Opportunity Cost
Fournette is currently being taken at pick 24, according to Fantasy Football Calculator, the 12th running back off the board. Other running-backs being drafted after Fournette such as Chris Carson, Melvin Gordon, Todd Gurley, and Le’Veon Bell, while all carry risk, all provide a similar workload and in many cases more receiving opportunities.
And when looking at wide receivers, Fournette’s draft cost shows an even greater opportunity cost. Mike Evans and Kenny Golladay are being drafted at picks 22 and 23 respectively, according to Fantasy Football Calculator, followed by the likes of Amari Cooper, Allen Robinson, DJ Moore, and AJ Brown. All have few question marks over their roles in 2020 and all have a good chance to be the most targeted player on their respective teams.
Answering The Question
Taking everything into consideration, Fournette looks to have plenty of red flags coming into the new season and at his current draft cost, he appears to be slightly overvalued. A regression from his RB7 finish in 2019 should be expected and with solid alternatives in this range, it may make sense to address the receiver position with one of the many high-upside wide receivers available. It’ll be worth tracking Fournette’s ADP as we approach draft season, however, and reconsider whether he is worth the risk if he begins to fall towards the middle/end of the 3rd round.
