Week 13: We’re Talking About Playoffs

In games where Tennessee has a comfortable lead and relies on Derrick Henry to rush the ball, Tannehill will put up fantasy points on efficient passes, evident by Tannehill posting the 5th best-completed air yards per pass attempt (7.0). In games like Sunday, where Tennesse played catch-up all day, Tannehill will air the ball out 40+ times. Across all of these games, Tannehill is smart with his passes. Coming into Sunday, he had a 14.6% “bad throw” percentage, 5th best among QBs who have played at least 9 of 12 games. He also knows how to make positive plays under pressure. Tannehill was 3rd in the league in terms of rushing yards per scramble attempt, only behind Cam Newton and Kyler Murray (and tied with Carson Wentz).

 

Next week, Tannehill faces the Jaguars defense, which has given up the 4th most points to opposing QBs this season. For those who stuck with Tannehill through the stretch against Indianapolis (twice), Chicago, and Baltimore, you’ll be rewarded with a rock-solid QB1 in the fantasy playoffs.

 

 

Against the league’s worst run defense, David Montgomery enjoyed a belated Thanksgiving feast. Facing the Lions, Montgomery ran the ball 17 times for 72 yards and 2 TDs, adding 4 receptions on 4 targets for 39 receiving yards. That’s the second week in a row that Mongtomery has racked up 20+ fantasy points. Patient fantasy managers are being rewarded for holding on to Montgomery. 

 

Rather than rely on elusiveness, Montgomery bruises his way to fantasy gold. Going into Sunday, he was 3rd worst in terms of yards before contact per attempt (1.5) but was top 10 in terms of yards after contact per attempt (2.6). Montgomery has also averaged a solid 5.25 targets per game since Week 3 when pass-catching specialist Tarik Cohen suffered a season-ending injury. With only 2 total TDs going into Week 12, Montgomery was a prime candidate for positive TD regression. In the past two games, he has 3 TDs. 

 

Next week, Montgomery faces the 2nd-worst run defense in the Houston Texans. Then, he faces Minnesota (16th against the run) and Jacksonville (6th worst against the run) in your playoff semi-final and championship weeks. Look for Montgomery to be a popular name on fantasy championship rosters.

 

Honorable Mention: Ty Johnson will be a popular waiver wire claim after stepping into Frank Gore’s shoes. After Gore was knocked out early against the Raiders, Johnson proceeded to rush the ball 22 times for 104 yards and 1 TD. He also added 2 receptions on 2 targets for 13 yards. Rather than being the pass-catching specialist he was in Detroit last year, Johnson saw 63% of snaps on Sunday. Will Johnson continue to see the lions share of the touches if Gore misses again? He’s a good desperation flex if you survived this week.

 

Corey Davis is likely to be another popular player on playoff rosters. Catching fire at the right time, Davis had another impressive performance with 182 receiving yards and 1 TD. With 11 receptions on 12 targets, he is becoming a new go-to possession receiver for Tannehill.

 

Over the past four games played, Davis is a top-10 receiver in all scoring formats. His 432 receiving yards over that time is second only to Tyreek Hill and his 269-yard performance last week. Keep in mind that Davis has done this with only 1 TD, which came this week. On the season, Davis has only seen 5 redzone targets, 2 of which came on Sunday. Although he is unlikely to see much positive TD regression, Davis brings a high floor week in and week out.

 

In the fantasy playoffs, Davis faces the Jaguars, Lions, and Packers. Both the Jaguars and lions are bottom-10 defenses in terms of fantasy points given up to wide receivers, with the Green Bay being more middle of the pack. Davis is leaping up from the WR3/flex conversation and right into being a viable WR2.

 

Honorable Mention: Keke Coutee stepped up for fantasy managers in the wake of Will Fuller’s suspension. Reeling in 8 catches on a team-high 9 targets for 141 yards, he was impressive against a tough Indianapolis secondary. With few eligible receivers left on the roster, Coutee was on the field for 75% of snaps and continued to serve as Houston’s kick and punt returner. Still, he has more tough match-ups ahead – Chicago and Indianapolis (again) – but faces a soft Bengals secondary in your fantasy championship. 

 

HE LIVES! EVEN WITH TUA! Draft darling Mike Gesicki finally posted back-to-back fantasy-relevant games. Against the Bengals, the third-year Dolphin had a season-high 9 catches on 11 targets and 1 TD. Many feared that Gesicki’s value would plummet (one again) when Tua Tagovailoa was announced as the starter. Prior to Sunday, Tua had only targeted Gesicki 13 times over 4 games. Perhaps Tua just needed time to build a rapport with his pass-catching tight end.

 

Unfortunately, Gesicki’s schedules only gets tougher in the fantasy playoffs. The Bengals had given up the 3rd most fantasy points to tight ends. Over the next three weeks, Gesicki faces Kansas City (16th), New England (28th), and Las Vegas (19th), all of which are must stingier for tight ends. Sadly, if you played Gesicki you may not have a better option. Proceed with caution.

 

Honorable Mention: Darren Waller channeled Tyreek Hill and went full God mode. A mere 13 receptions on 17 targets for 200 yards and 2 TDs. Career highs for Waller. Obviously, if you had Waller, you were starting him every week. This is merely to pay respects to the monstrous performance that Waller had. Perhaps I’m just sour that I played against Waller in two leagues this week because of course I did.