TOP FANTASY PLAYERS IN THE NFC WEST

Jorge Edwards

 

Hello, #4EYEDFans!

Welcome to our second divisional 4-EYED PREVIEW of the 2019 fantasy football season! As the title implies today I’ll be discussing the fantasy football outlook of each team in the NFC West. While this is not to be a comprehensive list of sleepers and potential breakout players (that’s where listening to the podcast comes in….HINT), I will be discussing which players on each team should bring you the most fantasy football success.

ALSO, as we all know anything can happen between now and the beginning of the regular season, so to ensure you are getting the best information out there from us we will continue to add and/or potentially subtract players from this and the following 4-EYED PREVIEW articles between now and fantasy draft time in August!

As a reminder we here at FANTASY IN FRAMES, base all of our analysis and projections on 0.5 PPR scoring and our new 2019 IDP scoring rubric found here:

Furthermore, all football stats are provided by the good people over at:

The NFC WEST has been infused with some offensive potential in Arizona, some performance decline in L.A., something unknown in San Fran, and a steady dose of “I’m not sure what to make of it” in Seattle. However, one thing is for certain in that things are about to get interesting out west in the NFC! So let’s get this thing started and talk about the fantasy football players that can help you bring home a title and potentially those that might hurt your chances this upcoming season!

First up, the defending NFC champions, the Los Angeles Rams!

 

FANTASY FOOTBALL PREVIEW ON OFFENSE

QUARTERBACK

Coming off a disastrous Super Bowl performance, many people have been wondering what to expect from Jared Goff in 2019. That’s a great question! From weeks 13-17 last season, Goff was the QB32 in fantasy points per game averaging 11.9 fppg. In the postseason, he decreased that total to 10.2 fppg. Before then Goff was averaging 22.8. His completion percentage dropped from 64.9% during the regular season to 55.7% in the playoffs. His passer rating dropped from 101.07 to 71.74. His yards passing per attempt went from 8.4 yards per attempt to 6.7 yards per attempt. The 6.7 yards per attempt in the playoffs was equal to how he finished the final five games of the regular season. His interceptions went up between week 11 through the Super Bowl and his touchdown numbers went down, so…..what the hell happened?!

Did defenses really learn how to shut down that prolific Rams offense that quickly?

Did Goff choke under pressure?

Why, dammit why did his performance drop off so much?

To me it seems like the lack of explosive plays downfield and just poor play were to blame for Goff’s decline in fantasy production. There’s just no other explanation. It’s almost as if the Rams went into playing it safe mode come end of the season/playoff time and took the ball out of Goff’s hands and gave it to C.J. Anderson of all people. Was Goff reaching some form of physical fatigue? Was Todd Gurley not the only player suffering from an injury? The truth is we’ll probably never truly know.

The question going forward is what does this all mean for 2019?

He is currently projected to average 18.1 fppg in 2019 and given the fact that the team could be without the significant contribution of Todd Gurley in the running game, more responsibility of the offense will rest on Goff’s shoulders. The increase in passing volume should help turn around whatever deficiencies he had at the end of last season, but for how long? Once teams learn to key in on the passing game will the Rams trust him to overcome that defensive problem? It is for that uncertainty that I’m placing him outside of the top 10 in QB rankings this season. That being said as a double-digit round value Goff would be a tremendous pick-up and give you just enough production to help bring home a fantasy trophy!

RUNNING BACK

During the last 5 games played in the regular season, Todd Gurley averaged 20.2 fppg while averaging 120.2 total scrimmage yards per game. During the playoffs, Gurley averaged 55 total scrimmage yards and 10.2 fantasy points per game. As we’ve all heard by now knee arthritis associated with his surgically repaired left knee began hampering his abilities late last season and has raised serious concerns about his durability going forward. The Rams, in the 3rd round of the 2019 NFL selected Darrell Henderson out of Memphis for his skills as a “change of pace back” in the Rams offense as opposed to a replacement for Gurley.

Translation: Gurley is never going to be the same again, and Henderson is the handcuff to roster in fantasy football.

Then all of a sudden this news broke:

Followed this analysis on NFL Network by hall of famer Terrell Davis:

I’m not going to sugar coat it folks, the days of Todd Gurley being that dominant running back are more than likely over. He is currently projected to average 16.4 fppg in 2019 and has an ADP of 1.10 in 10 team half PPR leagues as of 6/6/2019. Obviously, we’ll be monitoring this situation going forward this offseason leading up to your fantasy football drafts, but my gut feeling is that these number will likely decrease as the summer continues, and you should probably focus on investing in safer running back options going forward.

Check out our 2019 Player Injury Review: Part 2 where we look more in-depth about Gurley’s injury by clicking here!

RECEIVER

Just to start with the elephant in the room, until we get closer to August I’m going to refrain from talking about WR Cooper Kupp. The reason being I need to see and hear more about his recovery from a torn ACL last season before I can give you a more accurate analysis.

Now, Robert Woods and Brandin Cooks’ production last season was very comparable to one another with Woods averaging 13.9 fppg and Cooks averaging 12.7. Woods led Cooks in targets (130 to 117), touchdowns, and receiving yards. For a majority of the season, it seemed like Woods was the defacto number 1 wider receiver in that offense. Even when Jared Goff started to struggle towards the end of the regular season, Woods emerged as the top receiving target averaging 16 fppg in his last full 4 games played.


Then the playoffs happened and things flipped! It was Brandon Cooks who was the leading WR averaging 97.3 yards per game to Woods’ 57.3 yards per game. It was Cooks leading yards per reception with 16.2 to Woods’ 9,5. Finally, Cooks led in average fantasy points with 13 fppg to Woods’ 9.

On Fantasy Football Calculator as of 6/6/19, Cooks’ ADP is 41st compared to Woods’ 45th.  Also, as of 6/6/19, Cooks is projected to average 11.9 fppg in 2019 to Woods’ 11.6.

Honestly, both would make a great borderline WR1/2 on your roster. That being said if I had to choose one I’d go with Robert Woods given his larger body of work this past season.

FANTASY FOOTBALL PREVIEW ON DEFENSE

DEFENSIVE LINEMEN

Aaron Donald is currently projected to be one of the best defensive linemen in fantasy football this season with a projected average of 8.4 fppg.

Aaron Donald is a monster of a pass rusher!

He led the league in sacks with 20.5, 9th in solo tackles as a DL, 1st in quarterback hits, 1st in tackles for a loss, and 1st in sack yards. I mean…come on! If he’s not the DL1 in IDP circles I don’t know who else should be! Lock him into your dedicated DL spot now and don’t think twice about it!

LINEBACKER

Can we give Cory Littleton a little respect up in here?! A year after the departure of Alec Ogletree and the recent departure of Mark Barron, Cory Littleton is in an excellent position to take over the linebacking corps of this Rams defense. While Clay Mathews and Donte Fowler get the notoriety of being the flashy edge rushers, Littleton is the new up and coming playmaker on the block and fantasy manager should be taking notice.

Last season, he was the 3rd ranked linebacker in fantasy points per game, 7th as a LB in solo tackles, 1st in passes defensed as a LB, 2nd in interceptions as a LB, and he averaged 14.4 fppg. He’s currently projected to average 13 fppg in 2019 and with an increase in total tackles to  132.5.

The issue with Littleton for 2019 is the uncertainty of whether he’ll continue to be the defensive signal caller thus being on the field at all times or if he’ll concede those duties to someone else. If he does end up losing that role he might not be on the field as much and therefore his fantasy production will take an obvious hit. We’ll keep you posted once training camp hits to keep you in the loop of where he fits into our rankings, but for right now consider him to have the potential to be an upper echelon linebacker that you’ll probably be able to draft once the more well-known linebackers are already drafted.

DEFENSIVE BACK

I mean at this point you should all know the best player from a fantasy football standpoint on this secondary is John Johnson III. Look at these highlights from last season:

He was the 3rd ranked DB in IDP leagues averaging 12.3 fppg in 2018 & 2nd in total tackles with 119. He is what we call a hashtag #TackleMachine which is exactly what you want out of your strong safety in fantasy football. For those who need a primer of players/positions to target in IDP leagues read our previous article discussing that very thing right here!  John Johnson III is projected to be the number 2 rated defensive back in IDP leagues with a projected average of 11.5 fppg. While other big-time names in the defensive back department might overshadow Johnson, make no mistake about it…you want him on your fantasy football team in 2019!

 

 

FANTASY FOOTBALL PREVIEW ON OFFENSE

QUARTERBACK

Despite the desire to turn the Seahawks offense into a predominantly run-oriented unit, Russell Wilson continued to find fantasy football success last season averaging 18.7 fppg on the season and was 7th in red-zone fantasy points on the season with 6.7 fppg.

What made Wilson overcome the run-oriented limitations of that offense last season was his ridiculous touchdown production (35) with such a high passing yards per attempt average of 8.1 all while just being 20th in the league in passing attempts overall. His completed air yards was 3rd highest in the NFL only behind Jameis Winston and Ryan Fitzpatrick which means he was REALLY good at completing passes downfield. I mean Wilson was the perfect example doing a lot with few opportunities.

He is, currently, projected to average 18.1 fppg in 2019 and has an ADP in the 8th round or 76th overall in 10- team leagues. That seems a little to high for me, but depending on your roster construction at that point if all that’s missing is a steady producer on offense that can get you close to 20 fppg you could do far worse than drafting Wilson at that price.

 

RUNNING BACK

A season ago we predicted, then rookie, Rashaad Penny to lead the Seahawks backfield going into the 2018 season. Then the injuries happened and the reporting to the team out of shape. As that was going on, Chris Carson was coming back from a broken ankle and started to make positive waves through the ‘Hawks organization as rave reviews about his playmaking ability and how well he had recovered from injury. Carson was named the starter going into the season and he turned that opportunity into 1151 yards and 9 touchdowns in fourteen games played averaging 4.7 yards per game.

Here we are a year later and now Chris Carson is dealing with a knee injury and recovering post surgery and Rashaad Penny is the one drawing rave reviews from OTAs for his playmaking ability and his conditioning, reporting 20lbs lighter than he did during his rookie season.

Whichever running back is the starter that running back is going to be in an offense whose run blocking was ranked 12th in the NFL and 7th in the league power running success rate! The Seahawks made a statement last season that they’re all about running the ball. Nothing throughout this preseason has yet to change that offensive philosophy!

As of 6/6/19, Chris Carson is projected to average 12.1 fppg. Whether it’s Carson or Penny leading this backfield, look for either running back to at least match that fantasy production if not surpass it!

RECEIVER

With the retirement of Doug Baldwin this preseason, Tyler Lockett is the likely candidate to take over WR1 duties for the Seahawks. Lockett ranked 15th in the league among wide receivers in fantasy points per game in 2018 with 12.1. His 10 touchdowns were tied for 5th best at the wide receiver position. The real shocking metric with Lockett is that he did all that on just 71 targets on the season which was tied for the 56th ranked wide receiver.  While it’s unlikely that type of TD efficiency is to persist since primary DB coverage will now roll over to Lockett, recent news that offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer will start moving Lockett all over the field translates, at least to me, into him being in a better position to increase his yardage totals compared to recent seasons. He is currently projected to average 10.5 fppg making him a fantastic WR2 option for you in upcoming drafts!

FANTASY FOOTBALL PREVIEW ON DEFENSE

LINEBACKER

Bobby Wagner is one of if not the best and safest linebackers in all of fantasy football. Period. The consistency from year-to-year is uncanny, the lack of injury history is phenomenal, and his fantasy output since 2016 has made him one of the top 3 #TackleMachines at the middle linebacker position. While starting off slowly to start the season Wagner, during the last 9 games of the regular season led all linebackers in fantasy points & tied for 3rd in solo tackles. He is, currently, projected to average 13.1 fppg in 2019. If you want consistency and high-level production from your LB1, to me, there is no better option than Bobby Wagner.

DEFENSIVE BACK

While the Legion of Boom is no more, Bradley McDougald is certainly taking advantage of his opportunities in that secondary from an IDP perspective. Now while I sing his praises let me not overblow his value. He’s a great DB2/3 option for those looking to hold off on drafting a DB in their IDP drafts early this upcoming season. Last year he ranked 18th among DBs averaging 9.6 fppg which is a respectable average. In 2019, he’s projected to average 9.7 fppg and is ranked 9th among all DBs.

 

 

FANTASY FOOTBALL PREVIEW ON OFFENSE

QUARTERBACK

During the last two games he played before tearing his ACL in 2018, Jimmy Garoppolo was averaging a passer rating of 116.6, 19.5 fppg, 228.5 passing yards, and 2TDs. Certainly, not a lot to go on but those numbers were very acceptable for a QB you more than likely drafted in the very late rounds of your drafts in 2018.

Current projections have him at a conservative of 16.3  fppg for 2019. Now keep this in mind, Garopollo is on an offense that made back up Nick Mullins look like a reasonable late-round drafted quarterback himself averaging 15.4 fppg throwing for 13 touchdowns in just 8 games played. If there is anything to be said about “Jimmy G” and this 49er passing attack it’s that efficiency is the name of the game. Don’t expect him to produce mind-blowing yardage numbers in 2019 based on a small sample size in San Fran, but as a quarterback who you can pick up in drafts to play a supplemental role to your already loaded roster, you could do far worse than inserting Garopollo into your starting lineup. At the very worse, he would make an excellent bye-week fill-in and a perfect option in 2 QB leagues.

RUNNING BACK

Welcome to the most disappointing backfield in all of football. Disappointing in that there are three VERY talented running backs on this roster with the potential to put up RB1 numbers, yet head coach Kyle Shanahan has made it know he wishes to deploy all three running backs in various offensive schemes this upcoming season diluting what was once going to be a promising backfield situation.

That being said, let’s use the assumption Tevin Coleman and Jerrick McKinnon will be the ones sharing backfield duties in 2019. Coleman is projected to only average 8.3 fppg and McKinnon 6.5 fppg. The only saving grace in this backfield is that as of 6/6/19 Coleman has been the only running back to actually practice with the team this offseason due to the other running backs still recovering from their own injuries. If Coleman is able to seize control of that backfield, then you might very well have a top 20 running back on your roster. His current ADP has him as an 8th round pick in 10-team half PPR leagues. If he becomes the lead running back look for his ADP to climb up into the 4th or 5th rounds in fantasy drafts this August.

RECEIVER

George Kittle is the receiving option you should definitely keep an eye on this upcoming season. He led all tight ends in the league in receiving yards with 1,377, was 3rd in fantasy points per game at the position with 13.7, and he’s considered one of the top 3 tight ends going into the 2019 season. He’s projected to lead all tight ends in receiving yards, average 14.3 yards per reception, come in 3rd in receptions, and average 10.7 fppg in 2019. Given the scarcity of high fantasy point producing tight ends, Kittle’s late 3rd round ADP is justified.

FANTASY FOOTBALL PREVIEW ON DEFENSE

DEFENSIVE LINEMAN

Newly acquired DE Dee Ford and DT DeForest Buckner are the two IDP stars to target along the defensive line in San Fran. Ford averaged 9.5 fppg in 2018 with the Chiefs while Bucker produced 9.4 fppg for the 49ers which is rare for a defensive tackle. Going into 2019, Ford is projected to average 7.43 fppg, probably taking into account his moving to a new team and the competition for fantasy stats from newly drafted DE Nick Bosa. That being said makes that him the 10th highest projected scoring DL in 2019. Bucker is projected to average 6.9 fppg making him the 14th highest projected DL in 2019. Both are “rosterable” options in your dedicated DL spot, but Ford’s ADP might be a little higher than you might feel comfortable with therefore Bucker wouldn’t be a bad option in the later rounds.

LINEBACKER

Kwon Alexander, the newly acquired free agent from Tampa Bay, is currently projected to lead the team in tackles with 128 followed by Fred Warner with 114. Alexander and Warner are projected to average 11.9 fppg and 10 fppg respectively. Both have been respective #TackleMachines during the course of their careers and have LB1 and LB2 upside this season, respectively, given the run-heavy nature of teams within division!

DEFENSIVE BACK

I can’t give up on Jaquiski Tartt. Or at least I couldn’t before. In just 8 games played, Tartt was 3rd on the team with 32 solo tackles. The highest solo tackle number on the team was 40 with that player playing 14 games on the season. He even led the team in fppg average with 9.1 despite only playing 8 games. The issues with him have always been his ability to stay on the football field, but injuries have continued to plague him during the course of his career. It’s because of that fact he’s, for me, a borderline late round pickup/waiver wire candidate due to his injury history despite his team DB leading projected average of 7.23 fppg.

 

 

FANTASY FOOTBALL PREVIEW ON OFFENSE

QUARTERBACK

Rookie Kyler Murray can run, he can throw, but the question is whether or not his style of play can translate into the NFL. He certainly has a plethora of young and old receiving targets on the team. This is where projections and analysis get hazy. Sure websites out there have their projections and their algorithms that decide how a player might perform. However, this is where a writer/analyst has lay on their sword and admit that sometimes we just don’t know enough about a player to give a projection they can stand behind. He’s a “5’10” quarterback playing on an offense that is being newly implemented by a brand new head coach on a team with an offensive line that ranked 26th in pass protection last season.

I know, I know rushing quarterbacks have always been good assets in fantasy football, but there are too many unknown variables for me to give you an opinion that he should be just as good as other running quarterbacks in years past! As the season progresses I’ll be able to give to you more in-depth analysis of how I predict his performance will be going forward, but until then I’ll take a more well-known commodity at the quarterback position than drafting Murray as my primary QB this season. Now for those looking to gamble on his production in Best Ball leagues, he would definitely make for a favorable pick in your drafts this season.

RUNNING BACK

Despite not being as productive as he had been in 2016, David Johnson was still a top 10 RB in 2018 despite only averaging 13.8 fppg. While the offensive line didn’t really improve that much this past offseason, being on an offense that, in college, was very pass-heavy to the running back position David Johnson should probably be more of a valuable commodity in 0.5 PPR and PPR leagues this season. He’s projected to average 16.2 fppg in 0.5 PPR leagues making his mid-first round ADP justified.

I really thought I was going to write more about D.J. in this article, BUT I’m pretty sure not much else has to be said. THEREFORE, enjoy these highlights from him in 2016 and get your mouth salivating about his potential:

 

 

FANTASY FOOTBALL PREVIEW ON DEFENSE

LINEBACKER

The transition away from a 4-3 to a 3-4 defense makes predicting IDP success a little difficult, but you can’t deny playmaking ability when you see it. That being said when looking at linebackers in a 3-4 defense I tend to focus more on ILB inside linebacker production as they can be considered the #tacklemachines in that particular scheme. Haason Reddick & Jordan Hicks are projected to average 11.2 and 8.8 fppg respectively. Normally, I would include Chandler Jones in this discussion but his switch to a 3-4 OLB is making me question if he’s in the right type of scheme to maximize the potential he’s shown in IDP in seasons past.

DEFENSIVE BACK

Budda, Budda, Budda….. BudDA! Budda Baker is an IDP stud! He led all defensive backs on the Cardinals last season averaging 12.6 fppg and is currently projected to be the 8th best fantasy football safety from an IDP perspective in the league this upcoming season. There were some rumblings at the beginning of the preseason that Baker might be a transition to free safety from strong safety that that’s all they were. Until we hear otherwise consider Baker to be a high priority in your IDP drafts this season!

 

That’s it for this divisional 4-EYED PREVIEW. As stated earlier the closer we get to draft season in August as well as the monitoring of player news and notes changes will be made to this article accordingly!

Stay tuned for a next divisional preview where I’ll be looking at the NFC NORTH.

Also, don’t forget to attend and meet with some of the writers of FANTASY IN FRAMES at the Midwest Fantasy Football Expo on August 18, 2019 in Canton, Ohio!

Hope to see you there!

Thanks for visiting Fantasy In Frames!

 

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