Hello, #4EYEDFans!
Welcome to our fourth divisional 4-EYED PREVIEW of the 2019 fantasy football season! As the title implies today I’ll be discussing the fantasy football outlook of each team in the NFC South. While this is not to be a comprehensive list of sleepers and potential breakout players (that’s where listening to the podcast comes in….HINT), I will be discussing which players on each team should bring you the most fantasy football success.
ALSO, as we all know anything can happen between now and the beginning of the regular season, so to ensure you are getting the best information out there from us we will continue to add and/or potentially subtract players from this and the following 4-EYED PREVIEW articles between now and fantasy draft time in August!
As a reminder we here at FANTASY IN FRAMES, base all of our analysis and projections on 0.5 PPR scoring and our new 2019 IDP scoring rubric found here:
Furthermore, all football stats are provided by the good people over at:
Let’s kick things off with the New Orleans Saints!
FANTASY FOOTBALL PREVIEW ON OFFENSE
QUARTERBACK
By now we all should know Drew Brees isn’t the same quarterback who’s going to be chucking the ball for close to and/or over 5K yards in a season as he was earlier in his career in New Orleans. Why’s that? Because the Saints now have a defense that can actually keep them in games now! The past two seasons, Brees has averaged 270.9 and 266.1 yards per game, the lowest numbers since he’s been the starting QB of the Saints. The one-two punch that Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram had given New Orleans the past two seasons has also been part of the decline of Brees’ fantasy production.
That all being said I’m by all means not saying the man can’t still perform when need be. The man was 7th in fantasy points per game with 20.3 in 2018 for crying out loud. That being said we can’t ignore is lackluster performance down the stretch of the regular season as well as playoff performance which saw him average just 16.9 fppg.
The fact of the matter Drew Brees isn’t the quarterback who is going to WIN you fantasy football titles on his own like he was in years past. However, he won’t lose them for you either and will likely put up stellar performances during the course of the season guiding you to your fantasy football championship game making him worthy of adding to your roster. The question is when do you draft him?
He currently has a 9th round ADP in 10-team leagues. Compare that to other quarterbacks still on the board at that time:
- Russell Wilson 9th rd
- Cam Newton 11th rd
- Jared Goff 11th rd
- Jameis Winston 12th rd
- Lamar Jackson 15th rd
- Dak Prescott 15th round
With the way the average fan looks at quarterbacks these days, the “what have you done for me lately” crowd is likely to draft other quarterbacks on this list that are on more prolific offenses which will probably lead to an ADP price drop for Brees the closer we get to fantasy draft time. If Brees drops below the 10th round consider him that perfect late-round quarterback that will guide you on your way to a fantasy football championship.
RUNNING BACK
Alvin Kamara was the 4th best running back in fantasy football last season posting a combined 1,592 yards, was 4th in targets among running backs with 105, 4th in receptions with 81, 2nd in total touchdowns with 18, and averaged 20.9 fppg.
With the departure of Mark Ingram, Kamara should see a slight uptick in rushing yardage despite the addition of Latavious Murry this offseason who is not the same caliber of runner that Mark Ingram has been over the course of his career. Kamara is projected to average 18.3 fppg in 2019 and quite frankly should be in the discussion for the top 3 overall draft pick in 2019!
RECEIVER
Michael Thomas led the league among wide receivers in receptions with 125, tied for 8th in touchdowns (9), and 6th in receiving yards (1,405) in 2018. Thomas has seen his yards per game increase each year reaching it’s highest number over the course of his three-year career with 87.8. His catch percentage reached a career-high with 85% in 2018. The only decline in his game has been his yards per reception which was only 11.2 yards per game, but that kind of goes hand in hand with a decrease in Drew Brees’s passing yardage totals per game over the past couple of seasons.
While he’s projected to average 14.4 fppg in 2019, the only knocks on Thomas are his lack total receiving yardage and TD upside in an offense that’s been shifting to more of a rushing one than high passing volume offense which bumps him out of my top 3 WRs. That being said if he were drafted as a top 3 WR your leagues this season I wouldn’t be disappointed in you as his progression during the course of his career certainly merits a high pick like that.
FANTASY FOOTBALL PREVIEW ON DEFENSE
DEFENSIVE LINEMEN
In 2018, Cameron Jordan had 12 sacks, 12 QB hits, 36 solo tackles, 8.6 fppg. He is projected to average 7.9 fppg in 2019 which has him the projected 7th best DL in all of fantasy football. Jordan has averaged 10.6 sacks the past four seasons, 39 solo tackles, 17.3 tackles for a loss, and 23.3 QB hits. Since 2016, Jordan is 3rd in defensive stops (including sacks and tackles for a loss) in the NFL only behind edge rushers Khalil Mack and Von Miller. Clearly, Jordan is entering the prime of his career and is considered one of the best pass rushers in the NFL. Draft him with confidence as your DL1 this season!
LINEBACKER
Demario Davis, the man our very own Ken Sonnenberg dubbed as the hashtag #TACKLEMACHINE last offseason certainly lived up to his namesake in 2019. His 110 total tackles, 5 sacks, 12.5 tackles for a loss, 12 QB hits, 11.6 fppg and 4 passes defensed were leaps and bounds above what any other linebacker on his team did last season. Davis seemed to thrive in New Orleans’ 5-2 defensive scheme quite well in 2018 and there is no reason to think he won’t do the same or better in 2019!
He’s currently projected to average 11.4 fppg in 2019 making him a great later-round value at linebacker if you chose to go defensive lineman/ defensive back early in your fantasy drafts
FANTASY FOOTBALL PREVIEW ON OFFENSE
QUARTERBACK
Matt Ryan is coming off of a season where he was the number 2 fantasy quarterback in the NFL averaging 22.1 fppg, 3rd in passing yards with 3,924, 3rd in completion percentage among quarterbacks with at least 15 games played, and is currently projected to average 19.1 fppg making him a top 5 fantasy quarterback in 2019.
The question with Ryan is that if he is worth his price in terms of ADP? He’s currently projected to go at the beginning of the 8th round in 10-team leagues around players such as Eric Ebron, D.J. Moore, Tevin Coleman, Alshon Jeffery, and Robby Anderson. I would argue that he is worth that investment in the 8th round due to the lack of RB1/2 or WR1/2 talent around him at that ADP. Not to mention Ryan is in an advantageous position in 2019, playing 13 of his 16 games this coming season indoors. I would definitely feel better if he fell closer to the 10th round of fantasy drafts, but at 8 I’d be willing to pull the trigger there. So should you!
RECEIVER
Julio Jones is a top 3 wide receiver in fantasy football this year, period. Yes, I know recent reports have him dealing with a minor foot injury which is why he didn’t participate in minicamp this offseason. Yes, I know he’s 30 years old and at some point, age and injuries will become an issue for Julio. Look I get all that. However, keep in mind for the past few seasons he’s always been dealing with some nagging injury of some form or the other and he still puts up gaudy fantasy numbers. Head coach Dan Quinn stated he doesn’t expect this injury to derail him from reporting and participating in training camp, despite this injury. Jones is also negotiating a long-term deal with the Falcons which may or may not be playing some part of his lack of participation so far this offseason, so there’s that too.
Jones is coming off of a season that saw him 1st in receiving yards with 1,677, 1st in targets with 170, 3rd in receptions with 133, 5th in fantasy points per game (16.8), averaged 104.8 yards per game. Granted while the knock on Julio has always been his touchdown production or lack thereof, during his playing time with new OC Dirk Koetter earlier in his career Jones saw highs in touchdowns, yards, and yards per reception making Koetter’s and Jones’ reunion in Atlanta this season a happy one for them and for fantasy managers of Jones’!
He’s currently projected to average 16 fppg in 2019.
FANTASY FOOTBALL PREVIEW ON DEFENSE
LINEBACKER
Deion Jones is the prototypical “all you can ask for” linebacker in the NFL. Although played in only 6 games in 2018, when he was on the field he averaged 8.8 tackles per game (53 total tackles on the season) and made solo tackles 64% of the time. Compare that to his solo tackle percentage in 2016 (71%) and 66% in 2017, for missing the majority of the season only to come back and picking up right where he left on from over the course of his career is a testament to how great of a linebacker he is, both in real and fantasy football.
In games played in 2018, he averaged a team-leading 16 fppg (which was 2nd highest in the league last season only behind Darius Leonard’s 19.1 fppg) and normally would be projected for equal production in 2019. However, he is still recovering from the very same foot injury that kept him out of action for most of the 2018 season. That all being said even with taking that into account he is currently projected to the 5th highest scoring linebacker in 2019, averaging 12.8 fppg.
DEFENSIVE BACK
Keanu Neal
Let’s not forget about Keanu Neal. He was the second highest tackler in 2017 (81), 2nd in fantasy point per game average, 3rd in forced fumbles, and 4th in fumble recoveries among all defensive backs. Last season in week 1 he tore his ACL, and based on recent reports out of the Falcons off-season program, Neal has been increasing his physical activity with trainers steadily this offseason and is on pace to be cleared to return to team activities for the beginning of training camp! He is currently projected to average 10.6 fppg in 2019 and considering some fantasy managers might be hesitant to draft a DB coming off of an ACL injury early in their drafts, YOU could be in one heck of position to get a late-round steal at that position!
FANTASY FOOTBALL PREVIEW ON OFFENSE
RECEIVER
Mike Evans was 3rd in the NFL in yardage with 1,524, tied for 11th in touchdowns with 8, 8th among wide receivers in targeted air yards, averaged 95.3 yards per game, had the highest catch percentage of his career with 62.3%, averaged 17.7 yards per reception, averaged 15.5 fppg in 2018.
Not bad, right?!
He currently has an end of round 2 ADP in 10-team leagues, and with the change in Tampa Bay of head coach to Bruce Arians, whose offenses favor the deep passing game, Evans should be in line for WR1 numbers and is a must-have for fantasy managers going into the 2019 fantasy football season!
O.J. Howard….
Can he stay healthy? That’s the only question for fantasy managers this season.
Last season, before he got injured, Howard was averaging 10.4 fppg, was 9th in yards per reception with 16.6 despite only playing 10 games, and is projected to be a mid-sixth round pick in fantasy drafts, averaging 8.7 fppg this season. Consider that ADP to be a steal for such a high upside tight end.
FANTASY FOOTBALL PREVIEW ON DEFENSE
LINEBACKER
Lavonte David was 4th in fantasy football averaging 14.8 fppg in 2018. He was 4th in solo tackles with 94 and 9th in tackles for a loss with 14. With David’s shift from OLB to ILB in 2019, he will see his tackle opportunities skyrocket making him a valuable commodity in IDP leagues. His projected 11.7 fppg average for 2019 will make him a solid LB staple on your roster and is in a great position to exceed those projections.
FANTASY FOOTBALL PREVIEW ON OFFENSE
QUARTERBACK
Cam Newton will be the steal among quarterbacks in fantasy football drafts in 2019. Mark. My. Words.
Even with a bad shoulder in 2018, Newton was able to come in 8th in fantasy points per game with 20.8, was 13th in completion percentage, 4th in rushing yards with 488, and is currently projected to average 18.3 fppg in 2019.
What makes Newton so attractive from a fantasy football perspective is his projected fppg average for 2019, his 11th round ADP, and the fact that reports out of Panthers offseason activities state that Newton’s new throwing motion, which he has been practicing recently, is said to make him more of an efficient thrower and that he should be full-go come training camp all equals plenty of upside for Newton. He doesn’t have to chuck it downfield all the time. He has playmakers on that team that do well with running after the catch. And let’s face it, Cam is going to run when he needs to.
While this situation will be monitored closely as we get closer to fantasy draft time, given his price and upside Cam Newton is in a great position to become this year’s Andrew Luck from 2018….and THAT is a very good thing for fantasy managers!
RUNNING BACK
Christian McCaffery. He’s a top 4, arguably top 3 overall pick this season. In 2018 he averaged 20.9 fppg, was 6th in rushing yards with 1,098, first in receiving yards with 867, first in targets and receptions with 124 & 107 respectively, and had 13 total touchdowns on the season.
The dude is a beast in every aspect of the game. This offense will rely on it’s best playmakers to carry them this season, and McCaffery is one of the best playmakers in the league.
FANTASY FOOTBALL PREVIEW ON DEFENSE
LINEBACKER
Luke Kuechly has been a staple at the MLB position in fantasy football for YEARS! His 93 solo tackles, 24.5 tackles for a loss, and his 15 fppg on the season in 2018 had him come in 2nd in linebacker production. The ONLY concern with Kuechly in 2019 is that Carolina could be shifting from a 4-3 base defense to a 3-4 which would lead to Luke splitting tackle opportunities for fellow linebacker Shaq Thompson. That all being said… I mean come on…it’s Luke Kuechly…..he’ll get his stats, fantasy points and should be considered one of the top LBs in fantasy football this season!
That’s it for this divisional 4-EYED PREVIEW. As stated earlier the closer we get to draft season in August as well as the monitoring of player news and notes changes will be made to this article accordingly!
Stay tuned for a next divisional preview where I’ll be looking at the AFC EAST.
Also, don’t forget to attend and meet with some of the writers of FANTASY IN FRAMES at the Midwest Fantasy Football Expo on August 18, 2019 in Canton, Ohio!
Hope to see you there!
