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TOP FANTASY PLAYERS IN THE NFC NORTH

Jorge Edwards

 

Hello, #4EYEDFans!

Welcome to our third divisional 4-EYED PREVIEW of the 2019 fantasy football season! As the title implies today I’ll be discussing the fantasy football outlook of each team in the NFC North. While this is not to be a comprehensive list of sleepers and potential breakout players (that’s where listening to the podcast comes in….HINT), I will be discussing which players on each team should bring you the most fantasy football success.

ALSO, as we all know anything can happen between now and the beginning of the regular season, so to ensure you are getting the best information out there from us we will continue to add and/or potentially subtract players from this and the following 4-EYED PREVIEW articles between now and fantasy draft time in August!

As a reminder we here at FANTASY IN FRAMES, base all of our analysis and projections on 0.5 PPR scoring and our new 2019 IDP scoring rubric found here:

Furthermore, all football stats are provided by the good people over at:

The NFC  North has undergone 1 head coaching change, an infusion of running back talent, an emphasis on the running game by one previously pass-heavy team, and well….the Vikings are trying to return to form from a couple of seasons ago with a rebuilt offensive line. So let’s get this thing started and talk about the fantasy football players that can help you bring home a title!

First up, the Green Bay Packers!

 

FANTASY FOOTBALL PREVIEW ON OFFENSE

QUARTERBACK

Aaron Rodgers, in 2018, was 6th in fantasy scoring at the quarterback position, 6th in passing yardage, last in interceptions thrown with only 2, and had 26 touchdowns on the season; all of which was done with a broken leg. Rodgers will have a new offensive scheme and philosophy to adapt to with new head coach Matt Lefleur taking over the reins in Green Bay. While his time as offensive coordinator in Tennessee last season left something to be desired of an up and coming offensive mind his experience as quarterback’s coach with the Rams two seasons ago under the tutelage of head coach Sean McVay, Lefleur is bound to bring some new creativity to an offense with one of the best quarterbacks in the league. As of 6/10/19, Rodgers is projected to average 20.1 fppg and is 3rd in our quarterback rankings this season!

RUNNING BACK

Look, folks, Aaron Jones is going to be the lead running back on this offense. Yes, I know LeFleur stated early on this preseason they planned to use Jones in a committee situation with Jamaal Williams, but this is the same LeFleur that tried to utilize Derrick Henry and Dion Lewis last season as a committee and we all saw how that turned out. Not well. It was only until he committed to the best running back on the team that the running game in Tennessee took off and chances are that’s what will happen in Green Bay this season.

Last season, Jones, averaged 5.5 yards per carry, was tied for 11th in rushing touchdowns with 8 in only 12 games played, & averaged 13.2 fppg.  Jones only faced 8 or more defenders near the line of scrimmage 13.53% of the time, was the 6th more efficient (north/south) running back in the league, and given the potential spread out nature of this offense look for Jones to be in a great position to recreate his performance in 2018, assuming he can stay healthy.

 

RECEIVER

In 15 games played, Davante Adams was second in targets at WR in the NFL, 5th in receptions, 7th in total receiving yards, 2nd in touchdowns scored, and 1st in averaging 18.3 fppg in 2018. If that doesn’t get your mouth salivating at what last year’s production could me for this year, then the following news that came out about Adams should:

Slot receivers rarely draw top defensive back coverage and typically face off against smaller cornerbacks. Adams already was a defensive mismatch against normal sized cornerbacks. Now you place him in a position on the field where he not only has the route-running mismatch but a size and speed one as well, Adams is in a prime position to jockey for WR1 numbers this season. Currently, here is projected to average 14.9 fppg in 2019, and as far as I’m concerned that is a conservative projection. He’s a top 3 wide receiver come draft time!

FANTASY FOOTBALL PREVIEW ON DEFENSE

LINEBACKER

No defensive player on this roster has done more from a defensive standpoint for this team than Blake Martinez. Martinez ranked 6th among all linebackers in 92 solo tackles, 2nd in total tackles, and averaged 13.2 fppg last season. He’s, currently, projected to be the 9th best IDP linebacker in 2019 and average 12.3 fppg. Just plug him into your lineup and let Blake take care of the rest!

 

 

FANTASY FOOTBALL PREVIEW ON OFFENSE

QUARTERBACK

Mitchell Trubisky, while not your everyday polished pocket quarterback, did show decent fantasy football relevance in 2018. In red zone offense, that’s within the 20-yard line for those who are unaware, Trubisky ranked 7th in fantasy point production, passer rating, and completion percentage among all quarterbacks playing in at least 14 games played last season. Overall he ranked 11th in fppg with 18.8 in 14 games played and is currently projected average 17.3 fppg in 16 games played in 2019.

Trubisky is a perfect draft pick in best ball and 2-QB fantasy football drafts, and not a bad late-round quarterback back in redraft leagues as well. Why as a late-round flier? He ranked 6th among quarterbacks playing at least 14 games in rushing attempts and 5th in rushing yards. With rushing yards being a fantasy quarterback’s best friend, Trubisky could be a later round gem for those fantasy managers waiting on a quarterback this season.

 

RUNNING BACK

Let me show you how good David Montgomery was in college:

 

The Bears used a 3rd round pick on this rookie, who’s been constantly praised by his head coach for his talent both as a rusher and receiver during minicamps and OTAs this offseason. With the departure of running back Jordan Howard, the Bears are looking for a new workhorse running back to fill that void. Now, granted, they signed Mike Davis during free agency and they still have Tarik Cohen on their roster, who would make an excellent to 7 or later round pick in your fantasy football drafts particularly in 0.5 and full PPR leagues, but at the end of the day during his time in Kansas City as offensive coordinator Matt Nagy utilized a one back system with spelling the lead back occasionally in passing downs, making it appear as of today that Montgomery should be that one back that he counts on.

Montgomery has an ADP of 5th round pick in 10-team leagues and is projected to average 10.2 fppg.

 

If that is his baseline then he is definitely in consideration for RB2/Flex territory for drafters this season and could be one of those running backs your draft later in your drafts if you decide to utilize the Zero-RB strategy!

 

FANTASY FOOTBALL PREVIEW ON DEFENSE

LINEBACKER

Khalil Mack, Roquan Smith, and Danny Trevathan were the top three defensive performers in the linebacking corps for the Chicago Bears in 2018 with Mack, Smith, and Trevathan averaging 10.7, 12.3, and 11.2 fppg respectively. Inside linebackers, Smith and Trevathan totaled 89 and 76 solo tackles respectively while Mack tallied 12.5 sacks as an outside linebacker/edge rusher. Despite the change in defensive coordinators from Vic Fangio to Chuck Pagano, all three are viable IDP starters for your fantasy football teams in 2019 as all three are projected to average 8.7, 11.9, and 10.3 fppg respectively and have established over the course of their careers, in the case of Smith his one impressive rookie season and stellar collegiate career, impressive resumes that makes them without a doubt work fantasy draft investment!

 

 

That all being said the draft capital in Mack and Smith are going to be relatively high so if you’d rather invest elsewhere on draft day rest easy in knowing you can probably get Trevathan in the early to mid-double-digit teen rounds.

 

 

FANTASY FOOTBALL PREVIEW ON OFFENSE

QUARTERBACK

Was 10th in the NFL in passing yards (4,298), 9th in touchdowns (30), 16th in fantasy points per game average (17.7), and isn’t really being talked about that much in fantasy circles. Look, people, he’s a safe quarterback to start in fantasy football! Over the past 3 seasons, Cousins averaged out to be 8th in terms of fantasy points per game in that time period (17.9). He’s got a plethora of pass-catching skill position players in that Vikings offense, and he’s re-familiarizing himself to an offense that he was very successful with, in Washington, with former Super Bowl-winning head coach Gary Kubiak taking over some of the offensive scheme design.

His current ADP as of 6/15/19 on Fantasy Football Calculator is in the 16th round of 10-team fantasy drafts.

Chances are you can get a better quarterback with higher fantasy upside before then, but for those individuals playing in 12, 14, and 16-team fantasy leagues he’s exactly the type of quarterback you should target in the later rounds.

 

 

RUNNING BACK

Dalvin Cook’s current ADP has him going in the back end of the second round in fantasy drafts this offseason, and that sounds a little too early for me given his inability to play a full 16 game season in 2 years. However, with finally having a full offseason to participate in offseason activities and not rehabbing an injury Cook has been impressing his coaching staff all throughout the preseason.

During weeks 12-16 last season, Cook averaged 15.5 fppg and 107.5 total yards from scrimmage per game. I emphasize weeks 12-16 because it was around that time that you finally saw Cook shake off the effects of his torn ACL injury from a year ago and started running and cutting early and often. With a rebuilt offensive line and a commitment to the running game this coming season, Cook is in a great position to take it to a higher level in terms of both real football and fantasy point production. His current projected fantasy points per game average is 14 fppg and being on an offense that will more than likely have a lower “8 defenders in the box” percentage this season due to the receiving weapons on this team spreading out defenses he’ll more than likely be able to exceed that projection and then some IF HE CAN STAY ON THE FIELD!

 

RECEIVER

Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs are being taken in the 3rd and 4th rounds of fantasy drafts this offseason and with good reason. Both wide receivers finished as the WR7 and WR12 averaging 15.7 and 14.4 fppg. Now while their performances were impressive, a majority of those stats were accumulated under former OC Joe DeFilippo whose offensive philosophy was to throw early and often. It’s no wonder when Kevin Stefanski took over mid-season and emphasized the running game more did both player’s fantasy numbers begin to take a dip. With a commitment to the running game this coming season, look for both players to take a slight decline in fantasy point production, but not enough to scare you aware from making them your WR1/2 this season!

 

FANTASY FOOTBALL PREVIEW ON DEFENSE

DEFENSIVE LINEMAN

Danielle Hunter was a man possessed in 2019 averaging 10.8 fppg, 4th in the league in sacks (14), 3rd in tackles among DLs (51), 4th in tackles for a loss, and ranked 3rd in total fantasy points scored among DLs. In 2019 he’s projected to average 8.34 fppg and be the 5th best defensive lineman in IDP. Draft him. Start him. Be happy!

LINEBACKER

Eric Kendricks is the most fantasy-relevant linebacker on the Vikings. Averaging 11.8 fantasy points per game in 2018 in 14 games played, Smith accumulated 108 total tackles and was 11th in passes defensed at the position. Nothing is super stellar about his performances from an IDP standpoint, but he can make for a decent waiver wire fill in from week to week as he’s more than likely be considered to be a high to mid end LB3.

DEFENSIVE BACK

Harrison Smith was 12th ranked defensive back in terms of fantasy point production last season averaging 10.5 fppg, registered 84 total tackles on defense, (23rd), 5th in sacks at the position (5),  & 3rd in tackles for a loss (9). Smith is projected to average 9 fppg in 2019. The take away for Smith is that he’s probably going to be available in the later rounds just because most drafters tend to target strong safeties early on rather than free safeties. That being said Smith is a great example of a free safety exceeding their positional glass ceiling. For more on that topic read an earlier IDP evergreen article I wrote earlier this year by clicking here. If you plan on focusing on other IDP positions in your drafts than defensive back, Smith would be an excellent target for you later on.

 

 

FANTASY FOOTBALL PREVIEW ON OFFENSE

RUNNING BACK

 

In 10 games played last year, Kerryon Johnson averaged 5.4 yards per carry (2nd best among starting running backs), tallied 872 total yards, averaged 12.3 fppg before being sidelined for the rest of the season with a knee ligament sprain. He was the 4th best starting running back in terms of efficiency (meaning he was a good north/south runner) while facing 8 or more defenders in the box 29.2% of the time.

If all of that doesn’t make you excited for Johnson’s potential in 2019 the announcement by the Lions coaching staff that the offense will be primarily run-heavy should!

Johnson is projected to average 11.9 fppg in 2019 and is currently being drafted in the late 4th round according to Fantasy Football Calculator.

 

RECEIVER

Kenny Golladay had 1,014 receiving yards on the season, 119 targets, and 11.5 fppg in 15 games played on an offense that was fairly stagnant in 2018. His 37.3% share of the team’s targeted air yards indicates that he is one of Matthew Stafford’s trusted targets in the receiving game. The fact that no other wide receiver got close to 1,000 yards receiving explains that as well!

Now with the Lions choosing to emphasize the running game more in 2019, Golladay’s fppg projection of 10.8 should drop him down to a WR2 for your fantasy rosters, but still, that’s a pretty solid value, especially with a projected ADP of the 5th round

FANTASY FOOTBALL PREVIEW ON DEFENSE

LINEBACKER

Jarrad Davis was 11th among ILBs in solo tackles (73), was tied for 2nd in QB hits with 10, 15th in sacks (6), and averaged 10.8 fppg in 2018. Currently projected to average 10.5 fppg in 2019, Davis is a very suitable LB2/3 to plug into your rosters from week to week!

DEFENSIVE BACK

Quandre Diggs is the best defensive back fantasy football option on this roster, evidenced by his gameplay and 9.1 fppg average last season.

He led his team in solo tackles with 64 (22nd amongst DBs) and being a strong safety makes him one of the more reliable DBs on this roster. He’s currently projected to average 8.5 fppg in 2019 making him a strong DB2/3 candidate!

 

That’s it for this divisional 4-EYED PREVIEW. As stated earlier the closer we get to draft season in August as well as the monitoring of player news and notes changes will be made to this article accordingly!

Stay tuned for a next divisional preview where I’ll be looking at the NFC SOUTH.

Also, don’t forget to attend and meet with some of the writers of FANTASY IN FRAMES at the Midwest Fantasy Football Expo on August 18, 2019 in Canton, Ohio!

Hope to see you there!

 

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