TOP FANTASY PLAYERS IN THE NFC EAST

Jorge Edwards

 

Hello, #4EYEDFans!

Welcome to our first divisional 4-EYED PREVIEW of the 2019 fantasy football season! As the title implies today I’ll be discussing the fantasy football outlook of each team in the NFC East. While this is not to be a comprehensive list of sleepers and potential breakout players (that’s where listening to the podcast comes in….HINT), I will be discussing which players on each team should bring you the most fantasy football success.

ALSO, as we all know anything can happen between now and the beginning of the regular season, so to ensure you are getting the best information out there from us we will continue to add and/or potentially subtract players from this and the following 4-EYED PREVIEW articles between now and fantasy draft time in August!

As a reminder we here at FANTASY IN FRAMES, base all of our analysis and projections on 0.5 PPR scoring and our new 2019 IDP scoring rubric found here:

Furthermore, all football stats are provided by the good people over at:

First up, the Washington Redskins.

 

FANTASY FOOTBALL PREVIEWS ON OFFENSE
RUNNING BACK

The expectations were high for Derrius Guice coming out of LSU last season. His first snaps in the preseason showed just how much of a powerful and explosive runner he could be, but then just like that, his season ended with a torn ACL. To make matters worse after reconstruction surgery on his knee he suffered an infection at the site of surgery which delayed his rehabilitation progress even further.

Now many of you by now have seen all of the workout videos he’s posted on social media, and for all intents and purposes Guice looks to be in very good shape/conditioning:

 

However, despite his recovery and rehabilitation progress, the real question about Derrius Guice is what can we really expect from him from a fantasy standpoint this season.

The way I see it things can go one of two ways with Guice. He can either come out of the gates this regular season flying like fellow teammate Adrian Peterson did in 2012 with the Minnesota Vikings, or he can take half the season to get back to 100% much like Vikings running back Dalvin Cook did in 2018.

I don’t think the Redskins are planning to give Guice a heavy workload to start the season. Instead, they’ll probably work him into rotation slowly until about midseason and then they’ll let him loose! The reasoning for that is the resigning of Adrian Peterson, who filled in nicely for Guice in 2018. Peterson should help shoulder the load for Guice in the running game until Guice is good to go.

Once that happens Guice will have RB2 upside. Not to mention the Redskins don’t really have much going on besides the running game on offense, therefore Guice will be sure to see PLENTY of volume!

Not a lot of stats available to backup that claim but all reports thus far have indicated as much.

Guice is worth a 6th or 7th round pick in fantasy drafts this season if you’re willing to take into account he probably won’t be full go until mid-season. If you rather have players on your bench that can help you win early on in the season at other positions don’t pass on them for Guice at that point in your drafts. Fantasy Football Calculator has him going ( as of 6/1/19 in 10 team leagues) in round 6 in redraft leagues.  Any earlier and you’ll be putting all your chips in on him, hoping that he’ll be a true fantasy championship winning running back this season. I’d prefer to take a more cautious approach in this instance, but that’s me. At a projected average in 2019 of 9.7 fppg, it seems that other analysts in the industry feel the same way.

As far as Adrian Peterson is concerned, while the narrative that running backs after 30 years old decline dramatically in production exists for a reason, Adrian Peterson in no mere running back. While taking over for Guice in 2018, Peterson finished the season with 1,042 yards rushing, a 4.2 yards/attempt average, 7 TDs, and averaged 11.2 fantasy points per game. I mean, look at these highlights:

All that being said, chances are Peterson will be available for you in the double-digit rounds in 2019 due to more fantasy managers taking a chance on Guice in the 6th or 7th rounds. He’s a good insurance policy for Guice managers, and, at least early on in the season, could provide you with memorable fantasy as well as real-life football performances. That all being said if rookie Bryce Love is able to be full go by the start of the season after suffering an ACL injury this past December, Peterson’s value might decline even more dramatically dropping him off of the fantasy radar completely. We’ll monitor this situation closely and add to this article once we get through the preseason!


FANTASY FOOTBALL PREVIEWS ON DEFENSE
LINEBACKER/EDGE RUSHER

Ryan Kerrigan ranked 18th among DL and Edge Rushers has been the model of consistency in this Washington defense. His 13 sacks, which tied him for 8th most in the NFL, 30 total tackles, 1 pass defensed, 3 forced fumbles, and 7.77 fantasy points per game last season tells me he’s a safe option you can wait for in your fantasy drafts if your roster has a dedicated DL or edge rusher spot. He’ll likely be available in the double-digit rounds of your IDP drafts.

DEFENSIVE BACK


Without a doubt, the biggest and best addition to this team was the addition of Landon Collins at strong safety. As you all know when it comes to IDP, strong safeties are primarily the heavy-hitters of the defensive back position group in terms of tackles. Tackles = points, and Landon Collins, as his career has shown, makes a lot of them! In 2018, in twelve games played he averaged 11.9 fantasy points per game (7th best among all defensive backs who played a minimum of 12 games), 98 total tackles (68 solo/28 assisted), 4 passes defensed, and 1 forced fumble. While this was a down year in tackle production, his 113.7 tackles/season average over the past three years shouldn’t be overlooked. Clearly, injuries played a part of his downward production in 2018, with him missing four games in the regular season. Look for him to be on the field a LOT this season with Washington given the state of their offense, and look for him to come close to or even reclaiming the top IDP defensive back spot in the league once the season is over.

 

 

 

FANTASY FOOTBALL PREVIEWS ON OFFENSE
QUARTERBACK

Dak Prescott really started to excel once the trade for Amari Cooper happened in Dallas in 2018. His completion percentage went from 62.3 % to 71.8%. His average fantasy points per game increased from 16 ppg to 19.5 fppg. While not known for throwing the ball deep often against opposing defenses evidenced by his intended aDOT or air depth of target consisting of just  7.6 yards, his touchdown-to-interception ratio was pretty outstanding (22:8) commonly associated with quarterbacks who like to throw the short-to-intermediate passes. His tendency to throw the ball into tight coverage ranked 10th among all quarterbacks which indicates to me his desire to get the ball to his receivers in order for them to take short/intermediate receptions and turn them into big gains.

Now with the addition of veteran wide receiver Randall Cobb on offense, Dak has an even more explosive/athletic receiver in the slot position which can only lead to an increase in completion percentage in the short-to-intermediate passing game.  One thing is for sure, Dak will have the most dynamic receiving corps he’s had in his entire career with Amari Cooper, Randall Cobb, and Michael Gallup. OH and let’s not forget Ezekiel Elliot out of the backfield and the return of Jason Witten at the tight end position.

Combine ALL THAT with his ability to scramble for extra yardage, Dak has the offensive weaponry to return to his top 10 quarterback fantasy form he displayed during his rookie year. For those waiting for a quarterback in the later rounds of their fantasy drafts, Dak could be the steal of all quarterbacks this season!

 

RUNNING BACK

Ezekiel Elliott is who I consider being the top pick in fantasy football drafts in 2019, and let me tell you why. In 2018, he scored 9 total touchdowns in both the rushing and receiving game, earned 2,002 total scrimmage yards, averaged 19.4 fantasy points per game (fppg), was first in the league in rushing attempts with 304, and was 5th in the league in receptions for a running back all while facing 8 or more defenders in the box 24.67% of the time. Furthermore, his fantasy production increased dramatically with the arrival of Amari Cooper from 16.7 fppg to 22.1 fantasy points per game.

With the receiving weapons on this team stretching opposing defenses thin all over the field, Elliott is poised to have an even more efficient season on the ground with fewer defenders in the box. Look for him to have a career year and be worthy of the number 1 overall pick in fantasy.

***As of 8/12/19 Zeke has not reported to training camp putting his first round ADP in doubt. There’s very little doubt on my end he’ll get a deal done with the Cowboys. That being said the longer this drags on the more likely he should drop to a late 2nd early 3rd round pick for you in 2019. Tony Pollard would be his backup if he were to miss any time and is a name you should remember to draft if you’re drafting Zeke. I’m not a fan of handcuffing so early on, but in this situation you have to!***

RECEIVER

With  76 targets, 53 receptions, 725 yards receiving, and 6 TDs in only 9 games played with the Cowboys it’s no wonder Dallas is trying to lock Amari Cooper up to a long-term deal this offseason. Clearly, the offense as a whole started to click a hell of a lot more once Cooper arrived in Big D, and with potentially having a full offseason to work on chemistry with Dak and this offense, Cooper could be in for a giant leap in productivity this season. However, his lack of fantasy point consistency over the course of his career does make me question his upside. That being said given the right offense scheme and play-calling his upside is boundless given his overall talent. Consider him a late 3rd/early 4th round pick in your fantasy drafts this season!

 

 

FANTASY FOOTBALL PREVIEWS ON DEFENSE
DEFENSIVE LINEMAN/EDGE RUSHER

Demarcus Lawrence was a monster last season! He posted a whopping 64 total tackles (42 solo/22 assisted), 10.5 sacks, 10 stuffs, 2 forced fumbles, 1 fumble recovery, 1 interception, 1 pass defensed, and averaged 9.7 fantasy ppg (which is 5th in fantasy points among defensive linemen). He certainly earned his lucrative long-term contract this season in Dallas. However, he is coming off of shoulder surgery but by all accounts, he should be good to go by the start of the regular season. That being said when I hear shoulder surgery on a pass rusher that concerns me a little and should concern you and many others. Because of which he could slip to the mid-teens of your fantasy drafts this season because of his surgery which would be quite the steal for you if he did! We’ll monitor this situation closely and come back to it the closer we get to training camp!

LINEBACKER

Leighton Vander Esch and Jaylon Smith are turning into one of, if not, the best linebacker tandems in the NFL! I mean just look at this compilation video:

Vander Esch is coming off of a 140 total tackle regular season (102 solo/38 assisted) with 7 passes defensed, 3 stuffs,  2 interceptions, and averaged 13 fppg. Smith finished the regular season with 121 total tackles (82 solo/30 assisted), 5 stuffs, 4 passes defensed, 4 sacks, 2 forced fumbles, 2 fumble recoveries, and averaged 12.5 fppg. Either one of them is worthy of being your top IDP player or IDP-linebacker this season. While the price for them might be a little high, 7th-9th round in fantasy drafts, if you want truly elite “set it and forget it” IDP players then these two are definitely worth it!

 

 

 

 

 

 

FANTASY FOOTBALL PREVIEWS ON OFFENSE
QUARTERBACK

Carson Wentz, in 2018, was 23rd in the league in fantasy points averaged per game with 17.5 fppg, was 8th in completion percentage, and he threw for 3, 074 yards, tossed 21 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. His average intended depth of target was only 7.8 yards indicative of favoring short to intermediate passes which would explain the career high in completion percentage. All that should continue with the addition of field-stretcher DeSean Jackson to the offense. Just the threat of having someone with Jackson’s ability will open up even more passing opportunities in the short-to-intermediate game will allow for Wentz to maximize his fantasy production by doing even more of what almost made him an MVP in the NFL a couple of seasons ago.  He is going in the 9th round of fantasy drafts as reported by Fantasy Football Calculator.

RECEIVER

Zach Ertz is the best receiving option the Philadelphia Eagles have on their roster.  In fact, I might go as far to say he is one of, if not, the best tight end both in real and fantasy football! Ertz was SECOND IN THE LEAGUE, behind Michael Thomas of the New Orleans Saints, in receptions. His 1,163 yards receiving and 8 TDs puts him just behind Travis Kelce, and even then not by much. His 13.9 fantasy points per game are something fantasy managers should count on year in and year out with Ertz. In the 16 week fantasy football season in 2018, he only scored less than 10 fantasy points 5 times. Look I know the Eagles upgraded their receiving corp with the addition of Desean Jackson, but Carson Wentz trusts Ertz most of all on that team. It’s obvious, folks! Consistency is key with Ertz and as such he should be strongly considered as a 3rd round pick in your fantasy drafts this year!

 

FANTASY FOOTBALL PREVIEWS ON DEFENSE

 

DEFENSIVE BACK

Malcolm Jenkins was the shining light on the Eagles defense in 2018, leading the team in tackles with 79 solo & 18 assisted. His 8 passes defensed, 3 forced fumbles, 1 interception certainly helped solidify his spot as one of the top free safeties in the league and making him a valuable asset in IDP as evidenced as his projected 9.1 fppg in 2019!

 

 

 

 

 

 

FANTASY FOOTBALL PREVIEWS ON OFFENSE
RUNNING BACK

Saquon Barkley….What can I really say about Saquon Barkley that you don’t know already? The answer:  Probably nothing.

During weeks 1-16, Barkley led the team total fantasy points per game average with 21.3. If there is a knock against Barkley is that he didn’t really perform well from within the 1o yard line during the fantasy football season (16 weeks) only averaging 3.2 fantasy points per game. Compare that to an Alvin Kamara who averaged 6.6 fantasy points per game at that particular distance from the goal line. However, all that should be contributed to poor offensive line play that ranked 29th in run blocking in 2018.

The bottom line is this: Barkley should be drafted within the first two picks in ANY fantasy football draft this season. The potential for rushing volume, receptions, and receiving yards makes him one of the best running backs in the NFL and any slight upgrade to the offensive line in 2019 could push him right over the top into the top running back category in 2019!

*** With Zeke still holding out as of 8/12/19, Saquon should be considered the de facto #1 overall pick in 2019 until further notice***

RECEIVER

Evan Engram in weeks 14-16 of the fantasy football playoffs last season, sans OBJ, led the team in receptions with 17 & receiving yards with 239. He came in second to Saquon in total fantasy points scored/fantasy points per game during that span (35 total/11.7 fppg) on the Giants. Now with the addition of Golden Tate to the receiving corps who has a similar skill set and plays primarily in the same position as Sterling Shepard to muddy the wide receiver waters, look for Engram to emerge as Manning’s trusted receiving target in this offense right alongside Saquon Barkley. AND in the chance that Daniel Jones takes over as the Giants starting QB always remember that the tight end is always the go-to receiving target for any young and inexperienced quarterback which would push Engram’s fantasy stock even higher.

His ADP on Fantasy Football Calculator has him going in the 7th round of drafts as of 6/1/2019. Seems pretty reasonable for a top receiving target on any offense.

 

 

FANTASY FOOTBALL PREVIEWS ON DEFENSE
LINEBACKER

Alec Ogletree led the Giants in fantasy points last season over the course of 13 weeks, averaging 11.2 fppg. From the looks of it, he seemed to make a smooth transition from Wade Philips 3-4 defense to New York’s 3-4 defense in 2018. Where he really excelled was in the interception & TD producing department with a team-leading 5 INTs and 2 TDs on defense.


With a clean bill of health going into 2019 Ogletree has the opportunity to increase the number of tackle opportunities that have been vacated by the departure of Landon Collins. That’s a good thing as I don’t seem him repeating his INT and TD performance from a year ago. He’s projected to average 10.9 fppg in 2019 making him a viable starter at the linebacker position.

That’s it for this divisional 4-EYED PREVIEW. As stated earlier the closer we get to draft season in August as well as the monitoring of player news and notes changes will be made to this article accordingly!

Stay tuned for a next divisional preview where I’ll be looking at the NFC WEST.

Also, don’t forget to attend and meet with some of the writers of FANTASY IN FRAMES at the Midwest Fantasy Football Expo on August 18, 2019 in Canton, Ohio!

 

Hope to see you there!

 

Thanks for visiting Fantasy In Frames!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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