TOP FANTASY PLAYERS IN THE AFC NORTH

 

Hello, #4EYEDFans!

Welcome to our seventh divisional 4-EYED PREVIEW of the 2019 fantasy football season! As the title implies today I’ll be discussing the fantasy football outlook of each team in the AFC North. While this is not to be a comprehensive list of sleepers and potential breakout players (that’s where listening to the podcast comes in….HINT), I will be discussing which players on each team should bring you the most fantasy football success.

ALSO, as we all know anything can happen between now and the beginning of the regular season, so to ensure you are getting the best information out there from us we will continue to add and/or potentially subtract players from this and the following 4-EYED PREVIEW articles between now and fantasy draft time come August!

As a reminder we here at Fantasy In Frames, base all of our analysis and projections on 0.5 PPR scoring and our new 2019 IDP scoring rubric found here:

 

Furthermore, all football stats are provided by the good people over at:

•  Football Outsiders

•  ESPN Fantasy

•  FantasyData.com

•  Pro Football Reference

•  NextGenStats

With that, let’s get started with the team from the “Steel City”!

Also, enjoy a little RENEGADE before reading!

 

 

 

 

FANTASY FOOTBALL PREVIEW ON OFFENSE

QUARTERBACK

While all the fantasy talk from a quarterback perspective from 2018 revolved Patrick Mahomes and Matt Ryan, Ben Roethlisberger wasn’t too shabby either. Just take another look at what he was able to accomplish at the position:

• 3rd in fantasy points per game (fppg) with 21.3
• 1st in passing yards (5,129)
• 1st in passing attempts (675)
• 3rd in deep-ball pass attempts (84)
• 8th in pressured completion percentage (42.8)
• 4th in redzone attempts (94)

While those statistics look awesome, what does this all mean about “Big Ben’s” outlook for 2019? Well, let’s consider what’s changed in Pittsburgh. Clearly, from 2018, he’s capable of supporting multiple thousand-yard receivers, but with Antonio Brown now in Oakland there are 168 targets up for grabs. With no real established #2 on this offense as of right now, where are those targets going to go? Here’s a better question, does it matter?! The addition of veteran Donte Moncrief and further development of second-year WR James Washington can only add to the number of receiving options Ben can TRUST in the passing game. As long as he’s passing it to SOMEONE he’s going to rack up those passing yards. While touchdowns might go down, Randy Fitchner clearly let it be known last season he wants this offense to go through Roethlisberger and with that being the case Ben makes for a great double-digit round quarterback. His current ADP in 10-team leagues is 13.2 which is the perfect spot for a quarterback that has the potential for top 5 upside.

RUNNING BACK

James Conner took the “Steel City” by storm in relief of Le’Veon Bell in 2018. In 13 games played Conner put up an impressive stat line among other running backs:

• 7th in fppg (19.4)
• 9th in receiving yards (497)
• Spent 52.6% of the time in shotgun formation averaging 5.1 yards per carry
• 13th in evaded tackles
• 4th in breakaway runs (runs of more than 15 yards) with 15, same as Todd Gurley

When looking at these statistics I see a running back who isn’t the caliber of player that Le’Veon Bell was during his tenure in Pittsburgh. I see a running back that’s going to benefit from being on an offense that’s predicated on the passing game. I see a running back who will be in a great position to take advantage of fewer defensive players at the line of scrimmage due to the spread-out nature this offense is sure to employ with the plethora of receiving options on this team . Ultimately, I see a running back who is going to be in a great position to put up consistent fantasy point production from week to week on a pretty good offense. Conner is going 10th overall in terms of ADP in 10-team 0.5 PPR leagues. Considering the “TRUSTED” options available in the first two rounds at running back are scarce, that ADP sounds about right.

RECEIVERS

Juju Smith-Schuster & Vance McDonald are the two most trusted targets on this Steelers offense. In 2018, Juju was 3rd in the NFL in redzone targets, 4th in the league in total targets, 3rd in contested targets with 34,  5th in the league in total receiving yards with 1,426, and 10th in fppg with 15.1. McDonald was 3rd on the team in targets with 73, 3rd on the team in receiving yards with 610, was 10 for 15 in contested targets to receptions with a contested-catch % of 66.7 (which was tied for 4th in the league), and 9th in yards per reception with 12.2.

Both of these receiving options are bound to see an uptick in target volume, with the number of targets vacated by Antonio Brown’s departure. Opposing defenses are going to have quite the number of receiving targets to track all over the field when playing this Steelers’ offense, and because of which I’m not so concerned with teams double-covering JuJu. And by teams not double-teaming JuJu that allows for more one-on-one opportunities for players like Smith-Schuster and McDonald who are pretty darn good at one-on-one opportunities. Juju and Vance’s ADP is 17 overall and 8.8 overall respectively in 10-team 0.5 PPR leagues.

FANTASY FOOTBALL PREVIEW ON DEFENSE

LINEBACKERS

Devin Bush (ILB) & T.J. Watt (OLB) are the two linebackers I suggest you target on this Steelers defense. Bush will be starting opposite of Vince Williams in the position that made Ryan Shazier one of the top IDP linebackers from a few seasons ago. Praised for his speed, athletic ability, and production on the field in college Bush is in a great position to be one of those rare rookie linebackers that can make an immediate impact on a team. Watt was second in the league among linebackers with 13 sacks, tied with Ryan Kerrigan, 1st in the league in sack yards with 92. 3rd in QB hits with 23, and 3rd in tackles for a loss with 17. Based on our custom scoring settings all that production had him at an average of 10.6 fppg. Both of these guys are worth rostering and starting right away!

 

 

FANTASY FOOTBALL PREVIEW ON OFFENSE

QUARTERBACK

Baker Mayfield “only” set the rookie record for passing touchdowns in 2018, was 4th in deep-ball passing attempts, 9th in deep-ball completion percentage, and averaged 17.2 fppg. While his 7th round ADP has him ahead of Carson Wentz and Matt Ryan if you’re able to snag him in rounds 8-10 you might have yourself a discount at a top 3 fantasy football quarterback in 2019!

RUNNING BACK

Nick Chubb was tied for 5th in the NFL among running backs in yards per carry with 5.2, 9th in yards created with 388, 6th in breakaway runs (runs of 15 yards or more) with 14, 10th in juke rate (a measure of elusiveness), 9th in evaded tackles with 64, and averaged 11.5 fppg in only 9 games played as the starting running back. OH, and in only 9 games he tallied 996 yards rushing. I mean…holy crap this guy is good. The only concern for Chubb’s fantasy outlook in 2019 is the departure of offensive linemen Kevin Zeitler and Desmond Harrison.

Generally, I’m not one to have high expectations for a running back when they go into the next season with deficiencies along their offensive line, but with defenses having to be more spread out guarding the receiving weapons on this offense as well as Chubb’s overall elusiveness I’m having a hard time not picking Chubb in the mid-to-late part of the second round based on his performance from last year, his durability, and his overall play-making potential. He’s projected to average 13.4 fppg. I’d take the over on that!

RECEIVERS

Odell Beckham, Jr. and Jarvis Landry are clearly those receiving weapons I mentioned earlier. We all know what OBJ can bring to a team’s offense, on the field, so I’m not going to drown you with stats singing his praises. Landry, on the other hand, is in quite the position to benefit from Beckham’s presence on this offense.

While facing number one coverages versus other team’s defenses in 2018, Landry led the team in receiving yards with 976 yards, 81 receptions, and averaged 11 fppg in 0.5 PPR leagues. He was 8th, overall, in contested catch rate with 68.2% and averaged 12 yards per reception.

If he could do all that as the team’s number one receiver, can you imagine what he can do now that defenses will be targeting Beckham?

We all know Beckham should be drafted in the late first or early second round in your fantasy drafts, but Landry’s ADP of 7.1 might make him a hidden gem at wide receiver for those who decide to go RB heavy in their drafts early on.

FANTASY FOOTBALL PREVIEW ON DEFENSE

DEFENSIVE LINEMAN & LINEBACKERS

Joe Schobert and Myles Garrett are the two staples of this defense that you should target in your drafts in 2019. Schobert led the team in total tackles with 103, had 6 tackles for a loss, 3 sacks, 6 QB hits, and 6 passes defensed all while averaging 12.3 fppg. Garrett was 6th in the league with 13.5 sacks, had 3 forced fumbles, and averaged 8.3 fppg. Both players play to their strengths. One gets you high tackle volume and the other gets you sacks. Both, I hear, are great for IDP.

 

 

 

FANTASY FOOTBALL PREVIEW ON OFFENSE

RUNNING BACK

Mark Ingram is the running back I’m excited to have in Baltimore. Why? Listen to our AFC North/South podcast episode to find out why!

FANTASY FOOTBALL PREVIEW ON DEFENSE

LINEBACKERS & DEFENSIVE BACKS

Earl Thomas and Patrick Onwasar are your IDP players of note to target on this defense in 2019. Thomas is a perrineal pro-bowler who was averaging 12.8 fppg before getting injured and lost for the season last year. Not much else needs to be said about him. Onwasar, will look to fill that void left by C.J. Mosley and Za’Darius Smith, who are now on the Jets and Packers respectively. Patrick tallied 59 total tackles and 6 sacks while playing behind these two and now finds himself with ample opportunity to assert himself as the predominant linebacker on this roster.

 

 

 

FANTASY FOOTBALL PREVIEW ON OFFENSE

RUNNING BACK

Joe Mixon, in 2018, he averaged 4.9 yards per carry, was 7th in yards created with 449, had 1,168 rushing yards on the season (4th best i the league), 13th among running backs with 9 touchdowns and averaged 15.8 fppg in 0.5 PPR leagues. Combine that with new head coach Zac Taylor bringing in the Rams offensive scheme to Cincy, Mixon should be able to overcome any obstacle due to downgrades along the offensive line by compensating for fewer rushing yards with more receiving yards. I mean just look at how the Rams have used Todd Gurley in the receiving game since McVay has taken over in LA! He’s going to get plenty of volume and there’s no reason why he shouldn’t be drafted in the early second round of your fantasy drafts in 2019!

RECEIVERS

A.J. Green, post-surgery as of 7/30/19, is expected to miss the first few games of the regular season with multiple ligament tears in one of his ankles. This is a common story with Green. Plenty of upside,  but he always comes with some injury baggage. However, if you are able to keep him on your bench and draft him in the 6th or 7th rounds you might be in luck to have the draft steal of steals at the wide receiver position in 2019. Any earlier than the 6th round you are just asking for trouble.

Tyler Boyd, on the other hand, is a great WR2 option with Green out for the foreseeable future. In 2018, Boyd was 16th in receiving yards with 1,028, 13th in touchdowns among WRs with 7, had 13.5 yards per reception and averaged 13.1 fppg. IF this Bengals team can imitate the Rams offense, consider Boyd to be a poor man’s Robert Woods, which last time I checked would kick so much ass! He’s currently projected to average 10.2 fppg, but look for that number to go up with Green’s lack of availability on the field.

FANTASY FOOTBALL PREVIEW ON DEFENSE

LINEBACKERS

Nick Vigil was averaging 10.6 fppg and 9.8 total tackles a game in 2018 before injuries derailed his season. With Vontez Burfict now in Oakland look for Vigil to reassert himself as the leading tackler on this defense making a great IDP asset for you in 2019!

DEFENSIVE BACKS

Shawn Williams & Jessie Bates are quite possibly the best safety tandem in the NFL. Both put up rediculous numbers last season with both totaling over 100 total tackles each. Williams had 5 INTs and 9 passes defensed while Bates had 3 INTs with 7 passes defensed. Both are projected to average 11.5 fppg and 10.1 fppg respectively. Don’t hesistate, draft these two NOW!