TOP FANTASY PLAYERS IN THE AFC EAST

 

Hello, #4EYEDFans!

Welcome to our fifth divisional 4-EYED PREVIEW of the 2019 fantasy football season! As the title implies today I’ll be discussing the fantasy football outlook of each team in the AFC EAST. While this is not to be a comprehensive list of sleepers and potential breakout players (that’s where listening to the podcast comes in….HINT), I will be discussing which players on each team should bring you the most fantasy football success.

ALSO, as we all know anything can happen between now and the beginning of the regular season, so to ensure you are getting the best information out there from us we will continue to add and/or potentially subtract players from this and the following 4-EYED PREVIEW articles between now and fantasy draft time come August!

As a reminder we here at Fantasy In Frames, base all of our analysis and projections on 0.5 PPR scoring and our new 2019 IDP scoring rubric found here:

Furthermore, all football stats are provided by the good people over at:

•  Football Outsiders

•  ESPN Fantasy

•  FantasyData.com

•  Pro Football Reference

•  NextGenStats

With that, let’s get started!

 

FANTASY FOOTBALL PREVIEW ON OFFENSE

RUNNING BACK

James White is the running back to roster from New England. There, I SAID IT!

Yes, I’m fully aware of the fact Sony Michel played very well down the stretch of 2018 and through the playoffs. Yes, I’m fully aware that the Patriots drafted Damien Harris in the 2019 NFL draft. Yes, I’m aware Rex Burkhead is back in the mix. So why doesn’t any of that mean anything to me? The RECEPTIONS!

Let’s face it, New England doesn’t exactly have a plethora of receiving weapons in 2019. Neither did they in 2018. White in 2018 (with a minimum of 12 games played) was the 9th highest fantasy scoring running back in half PPR scoring leagues with 14.6 fppg. He was second in the NFL in receiving yards at the running back position with 751 yards only behind Christian McCaffery. He led all running backs (minimum of 12 games played) with receiving touchdowns with 7, and was one target shy of leading the NFL in total targets.

I’m aware they drafted WR N’keal Harry in the NFL 2019 draft, but New England’s offense is known for being extremely difficult to master, it is RARE for a WR to have any significant fantasy impact during their rookie season, AND reports out of OTAs and minicamp stated that Harry wasn’t exactly looking stellar.

Look, people…..

There is a CHANCE Sony Michel can return to full health, becomes the workhorse back in NE, and has major fantasy football success. There is a CHANCE that Damien Harris becomes the workhorse back in NE and has major fantasy football success. There is a CHANCE NE finally becomes predictable in having just one running back you can predict will have success running the ball….hahahahahahahahaha.

Even I couldn’t hold a straight face while typing that. The fact is when it comes to NE running backs RUNNING the ball nothing is predictable. However, when it comes to RECEIVING the ball James White has been the MOST consistent. He’s led the team in receiving yards since 2015 and now with New England on the verge of having a depleted receiving corps in back-to-back seasons, White is in an amazing position to repeat his receptions and yardage totals from 2018 with some slight regression in TD production.

James White is currently projected, according to FantasyData.com, to average 10.5 fppg. Considering his consistency at that position on that offense I’d consider him to be the best fantasy football option on that team at the running back position.

In 10-team leagues, he has an ADP of 7.04 which puts him around other running backs such as Derrius Guice & Lamar Miller. If you’re looking for a running back to fill your flex spot around that portion of your fantasy drafts I see no reason why you should hesitate drafting him right at that spot.

 

RECEIVERS

Julian Edelman is the number one receiving option for Tom Brady in the passing game. His team-leading 19.2% share of targeted air yards, his career-high in receiving yards per target (7.9), 11.5 yards per reception, team-leading 850 receiving yards, 6 TDs, and 14.2 fppg in 2018 should pretty much sum up Edelman’s value to that team, a team which has acquired vacated targets with the departures of Rob Gronkowski, Chris Hogan, and Josh Gordon. He’s currently projected to average 12.5 fppg and total over 1,000 yards receiving in 2019, and is definitively a WR2 worthy of his ADP of the late 4th round pick in 10-team leagues.

 

 

FANTASY FOOTBALL PREVIEW ON OFFENSE

RUNNING BACK

Le’Veon Bell, surely, hasn’t forgotten how to CATCH and run when it comes to playing football. I emphasize catch because that is something he’ll probably have to get used to doing early and often with this Jets offense, an offense that bolsters an offensive line ranked first in most stuffs allowed, meaning allowed for most tackles of their team’s running back either at or behind the line of scrimmage, in 2018.

It is very tempting to wax poetic about all the rushing stats he accumulated in Pittsburgh, but guess what? He’s not in Pittsburgh anymore so discussing that would be pointless. Looking at his receiving stats, however, is a different story. Him being able to catch passes isn’t dependent on having a good offensive line, let Sam Darnold worry about that! Let’s take a peak at what he was able to do when the ball was in his hands as a receiver in 2017.

That season Bell was 2nd on the team in passing targets with 106, only trailing Antonio Brown. He had 655 receiving yards, behind only AB and JuJu. That season he also had a catch percentage of 80.2% & 7.7 yards per reception.

For his career, as a receiving back, he’s averaged a catch percentage of 78.6%, 8.5 yards per reception, 5 receptions per game and 42.9 receiving yards per game. Now playing in an offense who’s going to NEED to get the ball out quickly, Bell is the perfect “release valve” for Sam Darnold in the passing game.

Look, I’m trying to be realistic of what the expectations are for Bell. I believe you’re going to see a dip in his usual rushing yards and an increase receiving yards playing for the Jets. And you know what? WHO CARES?! For fantasy football, yards are yards, whether rushing or receiving they count for the same amount of points. In 0.5 PPR leagues (which we discuss when talking fantasy points here on this website and on our podcast) and definitely full PPR leagues Bell is going to have greater value because of the offensive philosophy the Jets are likely to employ with Bell. He’s, currently, projected to average 15.2 fppg in 2019 and has an ADP of 1.09 in 10-team leagues. That sounds about right to me!

 

RECEIVERS

Robby Anderson has been certainly talked up by new head coach Adam Gase this offseason.

JETS TOP 20 COUNTDOWN

No. 10: Will Adam Gase turn Robby Anderson into a star?

Gase: “We’re going to think of ways to get him the ball. Instead of doing 1 or 2 things,maybe we can open up to 5, 6, 7 things where he’s a threat on multiple levels”

Story: https://t.co/k87ji0IA5E pic.twitter.com/cGpC5IWff4

— Manish Mehta (@MMehtaNYDN) July 8, 2019

When a head coach states he’s going to use a player more, that’s generally a good thing. Wouldn’t you agree? It’s even better to hear that when you’re already the number 1 wide receiver on your team. Anderson and Darnold developed solid rapport down the stretch of last season with Anderson averaging 84 yards per game and 12.9 fppg over the final four weeks. Sure, that’s a small window to look at, but consider the circumstances. Sam Darnold missed 3 games towards the middle of the season last year, right around the time he and Anderson should have been solidifying their connection with one another. Darnold finally started to get his performance going in a positive direction once he returned from injury and who did he trust the most in the receiving game? You guessed it, Robby Anderson!

Anderson has averaged over his 3 seasons in the league 14.6 yards per reception, 95 targets per season, and now you’re telling me he’s going to be used even MORE in the receiving game? Anderson has WR2 upside in 2019 and is currently projected to be drafted at 8.02?! Umm…yes, please!

FANTASY FOOTBALL PREVIEW ON DEFENSE

DEFENSIVE BACKS

Jamal Adams was the number one defensive back in all of IDP fantasy football in 2018! He averaged, using our very own IDP scoring settings which we encourage you to use, 13.5 fantasy points per game, 115 total tackles, 4 sacks, 1 fumble recovery, and an interception. This guy is all over the field making plays which is exactly what you want out of the strong safety position. Look for him to keep his momentum going into 2019 where he’s projected to average 11.3 fppg.

 

 

FANTASY FOOTBALL PREVIEW ON OFFENSE

RUNNING BACK

Kenyan Drake is someone I believe in 2019. Let me tell you why:

Despite being out-touched in rushing attempts by the ageless wonder, Frank Gore, Kenyan Drake was just as effective on the ground as Gore averaging 4.5 yards per carry. Gore led the running back position in total yards ran on the Dolphins, but Drake scored more touchdowns than Gore with 4. Where Drake really separated himself on the Dolphins was in the receiving game where he racked up 73 targets, 477 receiving yards, & 5 touchdowns. Oh, and despite being relegated to second-fiddle duties in the running game he was most effective in leading the team where it counts, for our purposes anyway, by averaging 11.2 fppg.

With new head coach Brian Flores bringing basically a huge chunk of the Patriots coaching staff with him including offensive coordinator Chad O’Shea to Miami, this offense is in a prime-positon to utilize Kenyan Drake in the passing game, as well as the running game, in a manner similar to so many other running backs for the Patriots that have found fantasy football success, especially like the one I mentioned earlier in this article. Drake is projected to average 12.2 fantasy points per game in 2019 and is being drafted at 6.02 which is right around players that are considered to be an RB2 or even Flex players in some instances. If you were to grab Drake as your Flex you might as well be handed the championship right then and there. If he’s your RB2, then you should still be pretty darn excited for his prospects in helping you earn that fantasy football championship in 2019!

FANTASY FOOTBALL PREVIEW ON DEFENSE

LINEBACKERS

Kiko Alonso was the top-scoring linebacker on this team in 2019 averaging 12.7 fppg. The guy, who is entering his 7th season in the NFL, led the team in total tackles with 125 and that’s while playing weak-side linebacker, a position that isn’t traditionally known for being a heavy-tackle producing position in a 4-3 defensive scheme. Nevertheless, the man produces and has produced year in and year out. He’s projected to average 11.8 fantasy points per game in 2019 and given the amount this defense is probably going to be on the field in 2019, it’s safe to say his fantasy point floor should remain the same as last year.

* Now normally I’d save breakout player discussions for our podcast, but Raekwon McMillian is a name you all should keep an eye on in 2019. Last year he came into the season not having a full off-season to prepare as he was still rehabbing a torn ACL injury that he sustained during his rookie season, in training camp that year if memory serves correct. For most of 2018, you could tell he was shaking the rust off and once he did, around week 10, the man was a machine averaging 7.8 total tackles per game and most importantly averaging 11.2 fppg. If THAT was his floor without a full offseason, then the sky is the limit for this middle linebacker in 2019. *

 

DEFENSIVE BACKS

T.J. McDonald is the IDP safety you want in Miami to roster on your fantasy squad in 2019. While Rashaad Jones led the team in fantasy points per game (10.2) last season, McDonald led that secondary in total tackles averaging 9.9 fppg. Now with Jones looking to be on the trading block and reports out of Dolphins minicamp and OTAs reporting that McDonald could play more of that “money-backer” safety position aka a strong safety/linebacker hybrid role, young McDonald should be inline for more fantasy football success in 2019. He’s currently projected to average 9.2 fppg.

 

 

FANTASY FOOTBALL PREVIEW ON OFFENSE

QUARTERBACK

Josh Allen for fantasy football MVP in 2019, baby!!!!!

That’s right, I said it!

Allen was AMAZING down the stretch to end the fantasy football season in 2018. In the final 6 games of the regular season, after coming back from an injury that cost him 3 games, Allen averaged 24.2 fppg, 79.3 rushing yards per game, 207 passing yards per game, and all while posting 5 rushing touchdowns and 8 passing touchdowns during that time span.

That’s right….let that soak in. Go on…take a minute.

The guy plays like Cam Newton. He’s not an accurate passer but is an aggressive passer, like Cam Newton. He has a strong arm, like Cam Newton. He is dominant running the ball which makes him dominant in fantasy football scoring, like Cam Newton. And he’s a big-bodied quarterback who absorbs plenty of hits yet still keeps going, like, you guessed it, Cam Newton. It’s almost as if this coaching staff has had experience being around Cam Newton. Hmmm. Oh wait…they HAVE!

Now, with an influx of talent at the running back position, which I’ll discuss more in our next podcast in which we’ll look at breakouts of the AFC East and West in two weeks, and upgrades at wide receiver, Cam New… I mean Josh Allen is in a position to put up the most fantasy points at the quarterback position this season. No, I’m not exaggerating. His ADP is currently at 14.08. Please wait on drafting a quarterback this year and get Josh Allen in the 14th round. You will NOT regret it.

FANTASY FOOTBALL PREVIEW ON DEFENSE

LINEBACKERS

Look nor farther than at Tremaine Edmonds in Buffalo when it pertains to IDP linebackers. During his rookie season, this dominant middle linebacker posted 121 total tackles (9th overall among linebackers) and averaged 13.2 fantasy points per game (9th overall among linebackers). The sky is the limit for this young man and he is definitely an up and coming IDP stud. Draft him as your number 1 linebacker with confidence this season.

DEFENSIVE BACKS

Jordan Poyer continues to be that safety you can always count on in fantasy football. 10th in fantasy points per game in 2018 (11.4) and 8th in total tackles among defensive backs with 100, Poyer is one the best safeties, albeit a free safety which usually isn’t a great position in terms of IDP value, in the league and you would be lucky to have this individual defensive player on your roster in 2019.

That’s it for this divisional 4-EYED PREVIEW. As stated earlier the closer we get to draft season in August as well as the monitoring of player news and notes, changes will be made to this as well our other PREVIEW articles accordingly!