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This article kicks off our 4-EYED OBSERVATIONS series where we’ll be discussing with you the top fantasy football players per division in the NFL for the upcoming fantasy football season. We’ll be talking offense and IDP, specifically at the QB, RB, WR, TE, LB, DB, & DL positions. This week we’ll be discussing the NFC East.
*As a reminder to those who listen to or don’t listen (you really should) to our podcast, all of our projections and insight for IDP players is based on the FANTASY IN FRAMES IDP scoring rubric which we will be using for the 2018 season and in our IDP followers leagues this fall.*
Now that we have that out of the way below we have broken down our fantasy football topics, position-by-position for you. Without further adieu let’s discuss who we feel are the top fantasy football players to target in your drafts from the NFC East:
QUARTERBACKS
Carson Wentz:
Before tearing his ACL late last season the, then, second-year quarterback from the “fighting city” of Philadelphia was unquestionably the league’s leading candidate for MVP in 2017. Through 13 weeks Wentz accumulated 3,296 passing yards, 299 rushing yards, 33 Passing Touchdowns & 7 INTs. In terms of fantasy football point production that resulted in a total of 281.7 fantasy points with an average per game of 21.7 fantasy points per game. Wentz was elite last year at the position and assuming he’s able to come back from injury without setbacks look for him to have tremendous upside with only a tiny bit of statistical regression in 2018. (@JorgeBEdwards)
Alex Smith:
Passing for 4,042 yards, rushing for 355 yards, throwing 26 passing TD’s, rushing for 1 TD, and tossing just 5 INTs, Alex Smith’s 18.5 fantasy point per game average last season led many a fantasy football manager to a championship last season. I should know, just ask my opponent in my league of record in last year’s championship game. Sigh. Nevertheless many are wondering will his departure from Kansas City and arrival in our Nations Capitol hamper his fantasy football value going forward into 2018. I would argue that he’s around the best group of offensive talent as a whole than he’s ever had during the course of his career. Therefore due to the playmakers around him in combination with his familiarity in a west coast offense, I feel he’s in a fantastic position to come close to repeating his statistical performance in Washington this season. (@JorgeBEdwards)
RUNNING BACKS
Ezekiel Elliot:
Coming off his near MVP rookie season, Ezekiel Elliott followed up with a strong second season. Before the season started, Elliot was suspended for 6 games because of an off the field incident, however, due to various appeals, Elliott ended up not serving his suspension until the start of Week 9. Many would say that a player’s production may drop as a result of all that hanging over their head, but not Elliott; through Week 8 he had already rushed for 783 yards while averaging 4.1 yards per carry. He finished the season averaging in games played 17.7 fantasy points per game. On most fantasy draft boards Elliot will be one of the first running backs taken, potentially being the first player overall. He is running behind arguably the best offensive line in the NFL, featuring 3 Pro-Bowlers.
Along with his projected rushing yards, those fantasy owners in PPR leagues could potentially see an upsurge in his pass catching output as last year he was targeted one less time and caught 6 less passes than his rookie season, while playing in 6 less games. And with the potential weakness of the Cowboys offense being their passing game, look for Elliott to shoulder much of the offensive load in 2018. (@KenSonnenberg)
Saquon Barkley: Saquon Barkley, the #2 overall pick in the NFL draft is joining a team that is in transition; after a disastrous 3-13 season, the Giants cleaned house both in the coaching staff, as well as in the front office. Out is General Manager Jerry Reese and HC Ben McAdoo, in as GM is Dave Gettleman and Head Coach Pat Shurmur. Since taking the job, one of Gettleman’s primary objectives has been to rebuild the Giants anemic running game, a unit that has finished no higher than 14th in the NFL in the last 6 years. Enter Barkley, the number two all-time leading rusher in Penn State history. As a dual threat, 3 down running back, Barkley will look to help the Giants regain the rushing game that was synonymous with all the past great Giants teams.
Projected to average 16 fantasy points per game in the FANTASY IN FRAMES scoring breakdown, Barkley should be no worse than a second-round pick on most fantasy draft boards, based on what he will provide the Giants both in the rushing game, as well as in the passing offense. (@KenSonnenberg)
Derrius Guice: Could Derrius Guice prove his critics wrong and show the Redskins that they got the steal of the draft? Most of the talk leading up to the draft was that the very talented running back out of LSU had the skills to be a top 20 pick in the first round. However, questions started popping up about Guice’s maturity and his ability to handle the pressures of the NFL. It appears that these questions lead to Guice falling all the way to the Redskins, who had the 59th pick in the second round. The question, here is whether these questions will affect Guice’s value in your fantasy draft.
Based on early projections, Guice will average around 11.3 points per game. He is considered a power runner with some injury issues while at LSU. He was not especially proficient in the pass-catching game while in school. However, he will more than likely go into the season as the Redskins #1 running back and being this power runner is an attractive quality for many fantasy owners as he will most likely be the primary option for the Redskins when they are deep in the red zone. (@KenSonnenberg)
Jay Ajayi:
After his breakout sophomore season in 2016 with the Miami Dolphins when he rushed for 1272 yards and 8 TDs, Jay Ajayi took a bit of a step back in 2017. After 7 games and a paltry 465 yards, Ajayi was traded to the Philadelphia Eagles in a trade deadline deal that would send the young RB to the eventual Super Bowl Champions. However, a trade to a winning team did not do much for him as he would play 7 regular season games with the Eagles as well and he would actually rush for fewer yards with 408 and finished the season averaging 8 fantasy points per game. Now you can potentially chalk that lack of production with the Eagles up to the fact that he essentially played behind LeGarrette Blount who was the Eagles primary back. However, with Blount signing a free agent contract with the Detroit Lions, Ajayi looks to have the inside track to begin the season as the Eagles #1 running back.
Coming off his all-pro 2016 season, many fantasy owners bought high on Ajayi, with most taking him in the upper half of most fantasy drafts. This season it looks as though people are going to be a lot more cautious with their pick of Ajayi, his 10.7 projected points per game average are numbers that are usually reserved for RB2 or flex position at best. Ajayi looks to be the classic “high risk, high reward” type of back. He is still very young (25 at the start of the season), so he does not have too much wear and tear, but those rushing numbers are concerning. He should be drafted in most leagues based off of his previous success and the fact that he is on a winning team, but anyone who feels the urge to overestimate his draft status is taking a big risk. (@KenSonnenberg)
WIDE RECEIVERS
Odell Beckham, Jr.:
He is one of the best wide receivers in the NFL, and when he is on his game, few receivers possess the breakaway speed and the route running skills that Odell Beckham, Jr. possesses. However, as we have seen since he burst onto the NFL scene almost 4 years ago, Beckham can sometimes fall prey to an immaturity that can have adverse effects not only on himself, but on the team around him. His ankle injury early last season cost him most of the season, so it is not fair to judge him on what he produced last year. If you want a real indicator of what this man can do, simply look at his stats over the first 3 years of his career. He has averaged 1374 yards and almost 12 TDs a season since he has been in the NFL, and the stat that makes most of the fantasy football world salivate (particularly those in PPR leagues) is his 96 receptions per season. He is Eli Manning’s #1 target and going into this season, that will not change. There are only a few people that project out to score more points this season than Beckham, but it is the skills and potential weapons around him that may make him the leader of the pack when it comes to best all-around Fantasy wide receiver value. (@KenSonnenberg)
Alshon Jeffery:
2017 was a comeback year for Alshon Jeffrey in a sense that while he did not put up the All-Pro numbers that he did for the Chicago Bears in 2013 and 2014, he appeared in all 16 games (plus the playoffs) and played a key role in the Eagles first Super Bowl Championship in franchise history. In fact, the Eagles though so much of his contributions that in December they re-signed him to a new 4-year contract. Jeffrey will once again enter 2018 as the Eagles top receiver and next to that guy named Beckham in New York, most fantasy boards will have Jeffrey predicted as the 2nd best receiver in the NFC East. There might be some concern with Jeffrey who underwent rotator cuff surgery in February which will keep him out of OTAs, but the word is that he will be ready for full activities by the start of the preseason. So while you always have to be cautious with a guy who has had an injury background, it doesn’t appear that this would be an injury that will threaten any part of Jeffrey’s regular season. He is projected to average 11.2 fantasy points per game, and with the eventual return of Carson Wentz at QB, look for his number of targets to increase, which will translate into higher totals in receptions, total yards and potentially TDs as well. (@KenSonnenberg)
Jamison Crowder:
This is going to be a big season for Jamison Crowder as more than likely, he will be entering the 2018 season as the Washington Redskins #1 wide receiver. With new QB Alex Smith coming over from the Kansas City Chiefs in an offseason trade, Crowder looks to continue to increase his presence in a Redskins passing offense that finished 12th in the NFL in passing in 2017. In Smith, who is known to be a possession QB, Crowder will be an attractive target for his ability to get open in routes, something that Smith will look to take full advantage of. Projected to average 9.2 fantasy points per game in the FANTASY IN FRAMES 0.5 point PPR offensive scoring setting Crowder projects to be a mid to late round draft pick on most fantasy draft boards and is slotted as a viable WR3 or Flex option in many lineups, with the possibility of him moving up to a WR2 depending on the chemistry that he can develop with Smith. Until that is known take a cautious but optimistic approach to Crowder’s value in the draft and look to start him depending on that week’s matchup. (@KenSonnenberg)
TIGHT ENDS
Zach Ertz:
Some would argue that other than Carson Wentz, the most important person in the Philadelphia Eagles offense is tight end Zach Ertz. Finishing behind only Rob Gronkowski and Travis Kelce over last three seasons in average yards per game for a tight end, Ertz comes into the 2018 season looking to build on what was his first Pro Bowl season in 2017. Since 2015, Ertz has averaged 76 receptions and 830 yards per season, as well as setting a career high in TDs last season with 8. Projected to average 10.7 fantasy points per game, Ertz will continue to remain a favorite target in the Eagles offense. He will clearly be one of the top tight ends taken and with the stats that he has amassed over the last few years, Ertz is clearly a must start at the tight end position on most fantasy football rosters. (@KenSonnenberg)
Evan Engram:
This season will be a very interesting one for Evan Engram, as he will look to once again be one of the primary targets on a New York Giants offense that has spent the entire off-season rebuilding. With the drafting of Saquon Barkley, the free agent signings of LT Nate Soldier and Guard Patrick Omameh and the return to health of Odell Beckham, Jr. the options for Eli Manning at QB will be plentiful. However, having the amount of options on offense may not adversely affect Engram’s numbers as much as one might think. Over his history, Manning has been very proficient in making the TE an important aspect of the offense and with Engram, who is probably the best offensive-minded TE that Manning has had since Jeremy Shockey, look for this TE position to be a fruitful one this upcoming season. On most fantasy draft boards, it is likely that Engram will not be rated in the elite status yet, at least not at the Gronkowski, Kelce, Olson, Ertz level, but with a projected average total of 9.2 fantasy points per game, Engram is most definitely a starter in most weeks and if all goes right with this Giants offense in 2018, Engram could come out of it being seen as potentially moving into that elite fantasy football tight end status. (@KenSonnenberg)
Jordan Reed:
So, what is a two-word answer for the highest risk, high reward tight end on all fantasy draft boards, that would be Jordan Reed. When on the field and healthy, he is probably one of the 5 best offensive tight ends in football, unfortunately in his 5-year career, Reed has not started and finished a season without missing any games due to injury. In his best season in 2015, he played in 14 games catching 87 passes for 952 yards and 11 touchdowns. If that does not scream top rated TE, then you don’t know much about fantasy football. Unfortunately, in the two seasons since, Reed has played in only 18 games with only a respectable 897 yards receiving and 8 TDs. So, what that tells you is when he is on the field he is a difference maker, however, you cannot trust that he will be on the field all the time, so then what is his value when you are looking to draft a TE? FANTASY IN FRAMES projects that he will average 8.8 fantasy points per game; if he is able to stay healthy, that projection could bump up higher to potentially somewhere between the Ertz/Engram level, based totally off his potential. However, be wary, as, with Reed’s injury history, the Redskins may take a cautious approach to his playing time to help prevent him from further injury, at least, until he can prove that he can handle a full-time load. Until then, they will most likely give him periods of rest during a game in order to get a few snaps for a resurgent Vernon Davis. (@KenSonnenberg)
LINEBACKERS
Zach Brown:
For those who read our earlier article discussing the Free Agency Impact in 2018 on Defense article we published a few months ago, it should be no surprise to see Brown’s name on this list. Ranked 1st on the team in total tackles and 9th overall in the NFL, Zach Brown averaged 9.93 fantasy points per game in 2017. Now fully healthy from a late-season injury as well as the healthy return of his ILB compatriot in Mason Foster and a healthy defensive line look for Brown to step up his production in 2018 and be a cornerstone piece to your fantasy football roster. (@JorgeBEdwards)
Sean Lee:
While injuries do pile up for Sean Lee, yearly, you cannot deny his talent as a pure tackler when he’s on the field. In 11 games in 2017 he averaged 9.59 fantasy points per game as well recorded a total of 101 total tackles, with 70 of them being solo tackles. As mentioned his health is always in question, but make no doubt about it he is still a top linebacker in IDP circles who you should not shy away from in your upcoming drafts. (@JorgeBEdwards)
Mason Foster:
Coming off of a season in 2016 where he totaled 124 total tackles, Mason Foster’s 2017 season was a bit of a disappointment due to injury. While only averaging 7.2 fantasy points per game last season when healthy it was clear that the duo of Zach Brown and Mason Foster was a dominant one in the tackle department. Because of which look to snag Foster not only as an insurance policy for Zach Brown but as a viable starting second linebacker on your IDP roster. (@JorgeBEdwards)
Alex Ogletree:
Coming from a 3-4 defense in Los Angeles, the now New York Giant brings an impressive IDP resume to the big apple. Taking over for Ray-Ray Armstrong at ILB and providing an upgrade at the position over B.J. Goodson, look for the Ogletree’s tackling production to increase due to the quality of opponents at the running back position within the NFC East. In doing so he’s fantasy point production should definitely increase over his modest 7.93 fantasy points per game he had in 2017. He makes for a fantastic pick for your second or third linebacker in this year’s draft. (@JorgeBEdwards)
DEFENSIVE BACKS
Landon Collins:
Based on the projections above for 2018 it should be clear to you that Collins is the premier safeties in the NFC East and the NFL. Averaging 7.86 fantasy points per game, which is close to LB2/LB3 fantasy point production, Collins is without a doubt a top 5 talent at the position this year and worthy of an early pick come IDP draft time. (@JorgeBEdwards)
D.J. Swearinger:
In his first year in Washington, Swearinger went to WORK in Washington’s secondary both as a tackler and pass defender in 2017. Averaging 7.1 fantasy points per game, with 61 of his 79 total tackles being solo, his 10 passes defensed, and his 4 interceptions Swearinger should be targeted early and often in this year’s draft since Washington did very little (yes, I think the signing of Scandrick equates to very little) to address their defensive back position in the offseason giving Swearinger plenty of opportunities to repeat his success in 2018 from both a real life and fantasy football perspective. (@JorgeBEdwards)
Chidobe Awuzie:
While not a well-known name, Awuzie is now the new starting cornerback for the Dallas Cowboys. Look for opposing quarterbacks to go after the second-year cornerback early and often giving Awuzie plenty of opportunities to increase his overall fantasy football production making him a viable defensive back on your IDP roster. (@JorgeBEdwards)
DEFENSIVE LINEMAN
DeMarcus Lawrence:
DeMarcus Lawrence averaged 6.56 fantasy points per game last season and while he’s sure to have some statistical regression in the “sacks” category there is no denying his talent which is why he is one of our top-ranked defensive lineman going into 2018. (@JorgeBEdwards)
Brandon Graham:
Averaging 6.06 fantasy points per game in 2017, look for Graham to continue his success in 2018 despite the additions along the defensive line, most notably Michael Bennett who’s in the middle of some legal trouble at the moment placing his playing status in question for 2018. Despite coming off ankle surgery that should keep him out until training camp, Graham will look to improve upon his career-best 9.5 sacks that he had in 2017 during an upcoming contract year in 2018. (@JorgeBEdwards)
Ryan Kerrigan:
Kerrigan averaged 6.1 fantasy points per game in 2017 with a total of 13 sacks for the season ranking him 4th in the NFL in that department. Not known for his IDP production, the addition of Da’Ron Payne in the draft this year and the healthy return of Jonathan Allen opposite of him along the defensive line should allow Kerrigan’s athleticism to match or even succeed his sack total in 2018. (@JorgeBEdwards)
We’ll see you next week when we’ll be discussing the Top Fantasy Football Players In The NFC West!
As always thanks for checking out FANTASY IN FRAMES!
