Top Fantasy Football Players In The AFC South

Jorge Edwards

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This continues our 4-EYED OBSERVATIONS series where we’ll be discussing with you the top fantasy football players per division in the NFL for the upcoming fantasy football season. We’ll be talking offense and IDP, specifically at the QB, RB, WR, TE, LB, DB, & DL positions.

Without further adieu let’s discuss who we feel are the top fantasy football players to target in your drafts from the AFC South:

 

QUARTERBACKS: Andrew Luck, Deshaun Watson, & Marcus Mariota

QB AFC SOUTH PROJECTED AVERAGE/GAME
IND Andrew Luck 18
HOU Deshaun Watson 17.4
TEN Marcus Mariota 16.8

Yes, folks, he has risen!

Andrew Luck is back slinging the ball around the field and if his shoulder holds up during training camp and the preseason look for Luck to be that late-round QB you draft that could very well win you a fantasy football championship!

Speaking of QB’s returning from injury, Deshaun Watson has been looking good in training camp. Yes, we all know his ridiculous pace in fantasy last season is probably unsustainable over a full 16 game fantasy football season, but his talent running AND THROWING the ball cannot be undervalued. If he makes it to the 9th round in your fantasy drafts feel free to pounce and draft him.

Under new offensive coordinator Matt LaFleur, Marcus Mariota looks to replicate the success Jared Goff did in Los Angeles last season and Matt Ryan two seasons ago. Like Deshaun Watson, Mariota is a dual-threat quarterback, and also like Watson he has a young stud wide receiver and capable set of running backs whom he can help elevate because of his mobility. This will be an interesting year for Mariota fantasy value given his poor performance last year. However, he’s two years removed from his broken leg injury and according to reports out of training camp he’s handling the adjustment to a new offensive scheme well. I see nothing wrong with picking up Mariota as your starter late in your fantasy drafts this season.

RUNNING BACKS: Leonard Fournette, Derrick Henry, & Lamar Miller

RB AFC SOUTH PROJECTED AVERAGE/GAME
JAC Leonard Fournette 14.9
TEN Derrick Henry 10.9
HOU Lamar Miller 9.8

He’s slimmed down, his offensive line which was ranked 1st in the NFL in 2017 got even better in free agency, and he has no competition in the backfield. No wonder his ADP is in the top 10 in ten team leagues on fantasyfootballcalculator.com. I, honestly, have no clue why he isn’t in the discussion as a top 5 running back behind the likes of Saquon Barkley and Alvin Kamara. Yes, he has a history of ankle problems, but he’s a grown man, he can take it. There are too many stars aligning for him in this backfield and offensive line this offseason for me to dismiss him as anything less than a top 5 running back heading into your drafts this season.

A season ago Todd Gurley’s ADP dropped into the late second round because of a lack of faith in the Rams offense as well as Gurley’s inability to catch the ball out of the backfield. Flash forward one year and new Titans offensive coordinator Matt LaFleur finds himself in a similar situation with Derrick Henry. Reports out of training camp have Henry lining up in the slot in passing situations. You can take that for what it’s worth. Everyone under the sun has been talking about how the signing of Dion Lewis will impact Henry’s fantasy value. Look, Dion Lewis has barely played a full season over the course of his career being the lead running back. Until that actually happens I’ll be happy drafting Derrick Henry in his 4th round ADP.

Lamar Miller was solid in fantasy last season with DeShaun Watson at quarterback in 0.5 PPR leagues averaging 13.6 fantasy points per game. While I certainly won’t be drafting as my RB1 I could see him repeating that success with Watson again making a viable RB2/Flex candidate this upcoming season.

 

WIDE RECEIVERS: DeAndre Hopkins & T.Y. Hilton

WR AFC SOUTH PROJECTED AVERAGE/GAME
HOU DeAndre Hopkins 14.7
INDY T.Y. Hilton 12.8

Right…so…Hopkins is good.

For me, it’s Brown, Hopkins, Beckham, and Julio when it comes to wide receiver rankings. Despite draft analysts heavily emphasizing running backs in the first round, I would see no problem drafting Hopkins in the late first round and then coming back in the early second round and picking up your RB1 then.

T.Y. Hilton is two years removed leading the league in receiving yards, and with his quarterback healthy again, look for a little more consistency to come Hilton’s way from a fantasy football point-of-view. Draft him in the 3rd round confidently!

TIGHT ENDS: Delanie Walker, Jack Doyle, & Austin Saferian-Jenkins

TE AFC SOUTH PROJECTED AVERAGE/GAME
TEN Delanie Walker 9.8
INDY Jack Doyle 8.3
JAC Austin Seferian-Jenkins 6.1

Delanie Walker receiving a new contract extension isn’t much of a surprise considering he’s been Marcus Mariota’s #1 target in the passing game over the course of Mariota’s career. While there are more receiving options in the Titans passing game than there had been in the past the rapport between Walker and Mariota should never be ignored and is what makes Walker a great early double-digit round pick at the tight end position.

Jack Doyle and Austin Seferian Jenkins are the dark horses at tight end in this division. Both have plenty of upside with Andrew Luck returning in Indy and Blake Bortles being known to target his tight end early and often in Jacksonville. Both of these two are mid to late double-digit round picks at tight end that you can keep as starters on your roster all season long.

 

*As a reminder to those who listen to or don’t listen (you really should) to our podcast, all of our projections and insight for IDP players is based on the FANTASY IN FRAMES IDP scoring rubric which we will be using for the 2018 season and in our IDP followers leagues this fall.*

 


LINEBACKERS: Telvin Smith, Wesley Woodyard, & Bernardrick McKinney

LB AFC SOUTH PROJECTED AVERAGE/GAME
JAC Telvin Smith 9.4
TEN Wesley Woodyard 8
HOU Bernardrick McKinney 7.9

Statistically, the Jacksonville Jaguars boasted the second-best defense in the National Football League in 2017, trailing only the Minnesota Vikings.  This team had multiple impact players who produced at every level of the defense; particularly at the linebacker position where Telvin Smith led the team with 102 total combined tackles (76 solo), while playing in 14 games.  Smith averaged 10 fantasy points per game and what made his output attractive to those of us in leagues that have IDP positions is that his point totals were not skewed by large fluctuations in his game-by-game totals. Yes, he did have a monster game in Week 5 against Pittsburgh, but very rarely did he have games where he was invisible.  There is no reason to believe that this year will be any different as he is projected to once again average about 10 points per game, while surrounded by a young, opportunistic linebacking corp.

Going into his 11th season in the NFL, Wesley Woodyard appears to still be drinking from the Fountain of Youth as he will once again anchor a solid Tennessee Titans defense.  Under new defensive Coordinator Dean Pees, Woodyard looks to continue to be the #tacklemachine that he has been for most of his career. Coming off a career-high 124 tackles (81 Solo) and 5 sacks in 2017, Woodyard will be expected to maintain the consistency that made him one of the most attractive linebacker targets in all IDP leagues. Averaging 9.2 points per game in 2017, it is not a stretch to think that Woodyard can meet, if not exceed those expectations this season.

The Houston Texans defense was beset by numerous injuries to many of its stars in 2017, with J.J. Watt, Whitney Mercilus, and Brian Cushing all missing significant portions of the season.  If one was to find a positive source of news that came out of an otherwise forgettable year defensively, it would be the play of LB Benardrick McKinney. The Texans defense in 2017 went from #1 in the NFL in 2016 to the middle of the pack in 2017.  However, don’t blame McKinney for the drop in production from the Texans, as the 3rd year LB would continue to show that the Texans made the right choice in 2015 when they chose him in the 2nd round out of Mississippi State.  Following up a monster 2016 season, McKinney would once again tackle his way through the competition, amassing 95 total tackles (62 solo).  He would average six fantasy points per game last season; it is obvious that with the return of many of the Texans stars on defense, along with the importing of other impact players through free agency, McKinney not only looks to better his average point total for this season (currently projected at 7.9 ppg), but it would not surprise me to see McKinney surpass those projections and inch closer to being one of the elite level fantasy point producers in the NFL.

DEFENSIVE LINEMAN: Jadeveon Clowney & Calais Campbell  

DL AFC SOUTH PROJECTED AVERAGE/GAME
HOU Jadeveon Clowney 6.3
JAC Calais Campbell 6

The #1 pick in the 2014 NFL Draft Jadaveon Clowney came out of the University of South Carolina as one of the most terrifying defensive lineman prospects to enter the NFL in years.  His hit on Michigan RB Vincent Smith in the 2013 Outback Bowl will live in College Football lore. When Houston drafted him and paired him with J.J. Watt, you didn’t need to be in the room to feel the fear that opposing offensive lineman and coaches felt when they had to game plan for Houston.  Unfortunately, in his first two seasons, Clowney did not live up to the hype as a combination of injuries and ineffective play, threatened to turn this once “can’t miss” prospect into a guy who would endure talk that he might be the next great draft bust. But then came the 2016 season, and all that potential that all the experts saw in Clowney started to show up and he would earn his first Pro-Bowl selection.  In 2017 his play got even better as he would star, albeit on a defense decimated by injuries; Clowney would register 59 total tackles, 9.5 sacks, 2 forced fumbles/3 fumble recoveries. From a fantasy football perspective, he looks to be a strong late-round IDP pick on the defensive line, which will once again feature future Hall of Famer J.J. Watt returning from injury, among others.

Coming off the best season of career, Calais Campbell looks to continue to be one of the lynchpins in what many people thought was the best defense in the NFL in 2017.  Having spent the first nine years of his career in Arizona, Campbell came over to the Jaguars as a free agent and gave them everything they could have asked for when they signed him to a 4 year $60m contract in the offseason.  Campbell would rack up 67 total tackles, as well as, career highs in sacks (14.5) and forced fumbles (3). As a Fantasy football beast, he would average 7.7 points per game, which was good enough for third in the NFL last season among defensive linemen.  He will once again anchor one of the best defenses in football, and it is not a longshot to believe that in his 11th season, Calais Campbell can follow up his career year in 2017, with another stellar season.

DEFENSIVE BACKS: Kevin Byard, Barry Church, A.J. Bouye, & Tyrann Mathieu

DB AFC SOUTH PROJECTED AVERAGE/GAME
TEN Kevin Byard 7.6
JAC Barry Church 7.3
JAC A.J. Bouye 7.3
HOU Tyrann Mathieu 6.8

Entering his third season in the NFL, Kevin Byard has firmly taken control of the starting free safety position for the Tennessee Titans.  Coming off his first Pro Bowl season, Byard looks to match the defensive output that made him one of the best safeties in the NFL in 2017. Byard accounted for 10 turnovers last season, which included an NFL best 8 interceptions.  As we enter the 2018 season, time will tell if the Titans make the decision to move Byard to strong safety, with the recent season-ending injury to Jonathan Cyprian. Will that increase Byard’s fantasy football value? Currently he is projected to average 7.6 points per game, but with the chances that due to Cyprian’s injury, Byard will move to strong safety, he could potentially up his tackling totals and turn Kevin Byard into, not only the ball hawk that he was in 2017 but an all-around terror in the defensive backfield.

Another 2017 free agent pickup for the Jaguars, Barry Church came over after a long career with the Dallas Cowboys and quickly earned the starting strong safety job; a spot that was vacated after former Jaguar Jonathan Cyprien left Jacksonville as a free agent to go to division rival Tennessee.  Church had a solid 2017 campaign for the Jaguars combining for 74 tackles and 4 interceptions. He even had 1.5 sacks which were the first of his career. Things are just looking brighter for Church entering the 2018 season as experts, particularly those in the fantasy football world believe that he will thrive even more playing with the stellar Jaguars defense.  Depending on how many defensive backs a person’s fantasy football league allows, Church looks to be a very interesting and consistent pick to draft for your defensive backfield.

It’s not a mistake that throughout this article many of the guys that I discussed come from the Jacksonville Jaguars defense. In 2017 this defense finished second, statistically, to the Minnesota Vikings in total yards, second to the Ravens in Interceptions, but first in total passing yards allowed and yards per game.  The lack of a strong passing game against the Jaguars in many ways was due to the hard work and immense skill of former Pro-Bowler A.J. Bouye. Having come over from the Texans in free agency prior to the 2017 season, Bouye would reaffirm the faith that the Jaguars placed on him by finishing the season with just 56 total tackles, but a monster 6 interception.  Bouye will look to increase on the 7.1 fantasy points per game in 2017, and potentially help the Jaguars take the next step as this great defense (led in the backfield by Bouye) hope to lead Jacksonville to its first Super Bowl berth.

The Honey Badger is loose in Houston!  Tyrann Mathieu joins the Houston Texans as a free agent, after spending the first five years of his career with the Arizona Cardinals. Coming off an injury that limited him to 10 games in 2016, Mathieu would return to the Cardinals lineup full time in 2017 and put up respectable numbers while playing in all 16 games for the first time in his career.  However, in the offseason, the Cardinals decided to cut Mathieu after he did not want to take a pay cut. He has now moved on to the Texans, where he joins a defense that allowed the most points in the NFL last year. The question is, can Mathieu stay healthy enough to return to the form that led to him being elected to his first Pro Bowl in 2015? Having played the full season last year is an encouraging sign and now playing on a Houston defense, that, if healthy look to regain its form as one of the best in the league.  Mathieu will look to be one of the leaders on that defense as our fantasy projections see him averaging 6.8 points per game. He is a good choice if you are in a league that allows you to start multiple defensive backs, he is not prone to up and down games, he is a rock steady performer whose highs will be a lot more prevalent then his lows.

As always thanks for checking out FANTASY IN FRAMES!

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