Free agency has kicked off, and with it is an air of excitement as dynasty managers begin to look at the changes on their teams. Some have lucked themselves into a great position, while others realize that they might need to make some changes. That’s what we’re here for: to help you make those decisions and find the best outcome to win your league. With that, let’s get into some changes I recommend making at the tight end position.
Tight End Buy – Michael Mayer
The tight end I am buying the most of this off-season is Las Vegas Raider’s second-year tight end, Michael Mayer. The young tight end did not reach expectations in his first year, which has caused his value to drop. The thing is, most rookie tight ends do not pan out immediately. In fact, to be honest, the tight end position is volatile to the point that if they’re not a top-six tight end, you can usually stream the position. We still search for those diamonds in the rough, though, and I believe Mayer has the chance to be just that.
As stated, Mayer came out of college with high expectations due to his production and ability shown throughout his collegiate career. Mayer had over 2,000 receiving yards during his time at Notre Dame, including the final two seasons, where he eclipsed the 800-yard barrier each year. His touchdown production was also significant, with nearly double-digit touchdowns each of those final two seasons. Unfortunately, that production hasn’t translated into the NFL quite yet, but, as stated, it can take some time for rookie tight ends to get their feet under them.
This is why Mayer is a great buy and stash right now. First and foremost, it is a risk, a gamble. But that’s what fantasy football is all about, isn’t it? Mayer is one of those players I am willing to gamble on his production being something that comes in time. There’s no competition on the Las Vegas Raiders, and he has a direct line at targets. Moving forward, he should have better quarterback play since the Raiders signed Gardner Minshew to compete for the starting job. Plus, there is the fact that the Raiders brought in Luke Getsy, the older offensive coordinator for the Bears who helped Cole Kmet become one of the top tight ends in the league. Dynasty League Football has Mayer as an early third-round pick or a late second. This is a price I’m more than happy to pay for a hopeful starter at the position.
Tight End Sell – Cole Kmet
Speaking of Cole Kmet, with the shuffle of coaching changes that have happened, I am a little leery of Kmet’s production moving forward. Out went Luke Getsy, and in came Shane Waldron of the Seattle Seahawks. This isn’t to say that I think Waldron is a bad offensive coordinator, but quite the opposite. Still, he underutilized his tight ends throughout his time in Seattle, which put a bad taste in my mouth. Maybe that was more of a Pete Carroll call, but I am concerned all the same.
Another reason there is some concern for Kmet is the new offensive additions that he will be playing with at Chicago, some of which he will be competing for targets. The Bears brought in star receiver Keenan Allen, who commanded targets during his time with the Las Angeles Chargers. Plus, there is D.J. Moore, who was already a dominating presence on the offense. Finally, I think the addition of a new rookie quarterback this coming season will be great for the Bears in general but possibly bad for Kmet. Now that they’ve traded away Justin Fields and have the top pick in the draft, it is a given that there will be a young gunslinger in their offense, most likely Caleb Williams. There has been a widespread belief that rookie quarterbacks will rely heavily on their tight ends when they come into the league. However, Scott Rinear has pointed out through his in-depth research on the topic that this is not necessarily the case and is often the opposite.
For these reasons, if I have Kmet, I’m trying to move him while I can. His name still carries some solid respect in certain corners of the fantasy community, and in dynasty, Kmet should still carry enough weight to make a trade happen. Dynasty League Football has him ranked as around a mid to late second-round pick. You might not be able to find his replacement at that price in this year’s draft, but I am trying to get out from under him while I still can before his value drops. Another route to try, especially if you are competing, would be to trade him for the aging Evan Engram or David Njoku, who is just a little more expensive than Kmet. If you are competing, and the owner of Engram or Njoku is rebuilding, it would be a perfect match to try to make that deal happen.
