Before he took the field against the Kansas City Chiefs in week 2, few could’ve expected the rise of Justin Herbert, and the continued fantasy production. As we approach the halfway point in the NFL season, what can we expect from Justin Herbert, and how are his surrounding weapons being affected?
The former Oregon quarterback Justin Herbert has taken the league by storm since taking over the starting job from Tyrod Taylor and has turned into an every-week starter for those lucky enough to grab him off the waiver wire. The Chargers’ number 6 pick in the 2020 draft currently stands as the QB 12, according to FantasyData, despite only playing six games. Herbert has amassed 1820 yards from a total of 153 passes, with 15 touchdowns and five interceptions. In all six games, Herbert has thrown for at least 250 yards and one touchdown.
Over the last few weeks since taking over, Herbert has consistently provided top-tier fantasy performances, finishing in the top 12 in four of his six games. And over the last couple of games, his production has improved even further, throwing at least three touchdowns in each of the last four games. Whether this is sustainable remains to be seen.
The rookie is having quite an extraordinary season and is sure to be in the mix to win offensive rookie of the year. Of course, as with most rookies, especially quarterbacks, there is every chance Herbert may come crashing back down to earth – but he’s shown little evidence of that so far.
The Upcoming Schedule
The good news for fantasy managers is that the schedule for Herbert also looks fairly kind. Between now and the end of the fantasy season, the Chargers face four of the ten teams allowing the most points to quarterbacks. This includes this coming Sunday, in which they face a Las Vegas Raiders team who are allowing the ninth most points to quarterbacks, according to FantasyData.
The playoff schedule, in particular, looks promising. In week 14 the Chargers face the Falcons who rank third in points allowed to quarterbacks, followed by the aforementioned Las Vegas Raiders, and finally face the Denver Broncos in week 16.
The Knock-On Effect
Under Tyrod Taylor, the fantasy community had little confidence in any Chargers skill-position players outside of Austin Ekeler and Keenan Allen, and Allen’s fairly low ADP clearly demonstrated how many felt. And Allen has been the clear beneficiary of the quarterback change, seeing at least ten targets in five of the last six games. In the last two Allen has seen a staggering 25 targets, accumulating over 170 yards.
After returning from injury, Mike Williams too has started to produce. In two of his last three games, Williams has seen eight targets, showing big-play ability and reeling in three touchdowns. The former first-round pick has shown promise in recent years, scoring ten touchdowns in the 2018 season. With Herbert’s ability to throw deep and more opportunities to produce, Williams can be started with confidence in plus-matchups going forward.
With the offense as a whole improving, the running backs have also been provided with more opportunities to produce. And while Joshua Kelley has shown flashes during the season, Justin Jackson looks to be the back to own. Since Austin Ekeler’s injury, Jackson has taken the majority of carries and has seen at least five targets in his last three games.
