The Late Night Drive-Thru of Running Backs
I wouldn’t say Dolphins RB Myles Gaskin is necessarily on a hot streak or a cold one, but I think he is like…Taco Bell late at night. Flashes of greatness and mediocrity but at least you know what you are getting which is a comfortable assurance to have. But is that going to be good for his fantasy value going forward? Also, did I write this after eating a Crunchwrap Supreme? You decide.
For the Miami Dolphins, going forward on offense, all eyes are going to be on their new QB which bodes well for a running back who has snuck his way into fantasy lineups, and our hearts. The change at QB will undoubtedly change the Dolphins offense from what we have seen during their first 6 games, but I wouldn’t expect ‘Tua Time’ to tarnish the fantasy value of Myles Gaskin. Currently, your half-point PPR RB26, Gaskin still projects to slot in as a top-20 RB for the rest of this season. However, if Gaskin hasn’t blowing up the stats running the ball, why does he deserve not only a roster spot, but a starting role in your fantasy lineup?
The real place that Gaskin is going to bring value and secure a trustworthy floor during the rest of the fantasy football season is going to be in the passing game. When Tua entered the game in garbage time of Week 6, we saw him make his first pass to a running back for 2 yards. His next pass was to Jakeem Grant and it went for 7 yards. Sure, you can infer that this was garbage time and so the Dolphins didn’t want him to air it out, but I also think that he is going to be looking to his security blankets during his first start. One or two deep incompletions and he is going to be keeping the ball in the middle of the field for a low average depth of target. The #1 beneficiary of that plan: Myles Gaskin.
So far this season, even with a week 7 bye, Myles Gaskin comes in at RB26. If you take out that bye? RB 20. For an undrafted free agent in most leagues, that’s not bad a return of investment off of the waiver wire. I can understand the hesitation, seeing as he has topped 50 yards rushing in only 3 games and he only has 1 rushing TD on the season. But again, the value is what he brings as a receiver. He has at least 3 receptions and 22 yards receiving in every game this season.
This week, Gaskin and the Dolphins take on Aaron Donald and the Rams. With it being Tua’s first career start, I would expect the Dolphins to try and establish the run early and often. I also expect that Rams defense to blitz to try and bring as much pressure onto Tua as they can to see if they can help influence some rookie mistakes. The Dolphins are likely going to have a safety valve option for Tua to always check down to, and I think that valve rotates between Gaskin and tight end Mike Gesicki. For me, Gaskin gets the start this week because the Rams are currently giving up the 10th most points to RBs through the air. David Montgomery of the Bears was stifled in the run game last week against the Rams, but he was 5/5 on receptions for an additional 21 yards. Even if Gaskin isn’t able to break off any huge runs, look for Tua to try to find that safety net, and I think you can expect him to bring in at least 4 or 5 receptions this week.
For the rest of the season, as previously mentioned, Gaskin is going to sneak into a top-20 RB option. His matchups, also, aren’t “horrible” the rest of the way. His schedule’s most favorable matchups during weeks 8-16 include Week 12 against the Jets and Week 16 against the Raiders; both bottom-10 defenses against running backs. Outside of a tough game against the Denver Broncos the remaining 5 opponents are sporting middle of the road defenses against running backs in fantasy, so if you combine Gaskin’s presence on the ground and as a receiver, he has solid value going forward.