The Increase In Josh Jacob’s Fantasy Value

Expectations were fairly high for Josh Jacobs after a solid rookie season, and this will only grow after a stellar performance against the Panthers and increased involvement in the passing game. The former first-round pick was the number 1 fantasy running back in the first week of 2020, with 139 total yards and three rushing touchdowns. And while his overall performance will surely excite fantasy owners everywhere, the hope is that a continued uptick in receiving work could push Jacobs towards the very upper echelons of fantasy football in 2020 and beyond.

Jacobs had a successful rookie season with the Raiders, rushing for 1,150 yards in 13 games, the 8th most in the league, scoring 7 times, and eventually finishing as the RB18 half-PPR leagues last year, according to Fantasy Data. The main area which held Jacobs back was his receiving work. In 2019 Jacobs saw just 27 targets, representing a 5.9% team target share, behind both Jalen Richard and DeAndre Washington who both had over 40 targets. Jacobs ended up as the fifth most targeted Raider last year, finishing with 20 receptions for 166 yards. The only running back who finished with more points and fewer receptions by the end of the year was Derrick Henry, who had 18 catches.

Raiders’ Week 1 Target Share

This target share breakdown is what makes his usage in week 1 so enticing. Against the Panthers, Jacobs was the Raiders’ second most-targeted player, only behind Darren Waller. Jacobs saw six targets and four receptions last Sunday, both figures higher than any game in his rookie season. This demonstrated a clear shift in strategy by the Raiders coaching staff to get him more involved this year. Jacobs’ usage in the first week represented a 21.4% target share, a clear increase from 2019 figures, and more targets than both Booker and Richard combined.

So the real question is, will it continue, or is this an outlier?

There were plenty of concerns in the off-season that Jacobs would see similar usage, following several off-season moves such as re-signing Jalen Richard, bringing in Theo Riddick and Devontae Booker, and drafting Lynn Bowden. But with Bowden and Riddick both now off the roster, the Raiders clearly feel they have enough in Jacobs. Head coach John Gruden was clear in the off-season that Jacobs needed to be involved, stating “we have to get more out of him in the passing game, more on the field on third down” in mid-August.

While we perhaps shouldn’t expect a 20%+ target share going forward, any concerns Jacobs would see similar receiving work to 2019 are out the window. But with Tyrell Williams out for the season, Las Vegas will need options outside of Waller. Although rookie receivers Ruggs and Edwards, who both had a fairly quiet opening week, should become increasingly involved as the season progresses, the Raiders receiving corps is not exactly deep and the opportunity for Jacobs is clear.

We should temper expectations slightly for the next couple of weeks, given the Raiders’ tough upcoming schedule with Las Vegas plays the Saints, the Patriots, the Bills, and the Chiefs in the next three weeks. But given the probable negative game-scripts in the coming games, if Jacobs remains heavily involved in passing situations, he will remain a key asset for fantasy owners. It appears the sky is the limit for Jacobs. With a guaranteed workload on the ground, if we were to see 50 targets or more this year, could we be talking about a potential league winner?!