The Fantasy Football Laboratory: Week 9 (2024)
Welcome to the Fantasy Football Laboratory here at Fantasy In Frames!
Welcome to the Fantasy Football Laboratory here at Fantasy In Frames! I’m no doctor, nor a scientist in the traditional sense, but I love getting into the numbers and uncovering key insights to help you win your fantasy football leagues! Since we all are keeping our eyes on the prize, check out all the great content here at Fantasy In Frames, but each week, make a quick stop to the lab to check out some of this week’s case studies. Today, we are going to take a deep look at why Keon Coleman stands to benefit from Buffalo trading for Amari Cooper.
Without further ado, let’s head into the lab!
Case Study: The Trade for Amari Cooper Will Help Keon Coleman
The early returns surely have been positive. Since Cooper rolled into Buffalo, Coleman has caught nine of 14 targets over the last two weeks for 195 yards and one receiving score. Prior to that, he had just one game on the year with at least four receptions, and zero games with more than five targets! Furthermore, Cooper’s arrival to town has seemingly taken snaps away from Mack Hollins, and not majorly impacted Coleman (or Khalil Shakir). Hollins played in a season low percentage of the snaps last week, while Shakir held steady, and Coleman’s trend is on the up and up. The Bills are beginning to trust Coleman a bit more, especially in the red zone, as he has four targets inside the red zone over the last two weeks, three of which have come inside the 10-yard line.
As Cooper continues to emerge and gain comfort in this offense, he’ll surely command more targets, but Coleman is a talented young player and it’s imperative that they keep him involved in the passing attack. I’m encouraged by his increased yards per route run over the last two weeks, per Pro Football Focus, and there’s no question about Allen being able to sustain a top fantasy receiver. I’m not saying Coleman is at that level yet, but he can make contested catches, and the confidence/trust appears to be growing with him.
Other Notable Observations Around the NFL (courtesy of Pro Football Focus, Pro Football Reference, and Fantasy Points Data Suite)
- Over the last four weeks, Joe Mixon is the RB3, Tyrone Tracy is the RB6, and Najee Harris is the RB10. In terms of expected fantasy points per game, Kareem Hunt is number one, and Alexander Mattison is number two over the last four weeks.
- Over the last three weeks, A.J. Brown has handled 55.8 percent of the team’s air yards, and is the first read 45 percent of the time. ALPHA.
- Puka Nacua is the Los Angeles Rams receiver with more upside. He’ll command more air yards than Cooper Kupp, post a higher aDOT, and in the first game this year with both guys healthy, Nacua had a higher first read rate than Kupp.
Cookin’ Up Something For Week 9
While we do a good bit of looking back while in the lab, we’ll also do a very, very brief look ahead to the upcoming week to help you as you head into the week ahead. After crunching some numbers, I’m here to say:
A.J. Brown is going nuclear this week. You read what I mentioned above about Brown, but it only gets better. He’s been rock solid this year, posting at least 80 yards in every game, but he’s been Jalen Hurts’ preferred target against man coverage, and Jacksonville plays a lot of it. In man coverage on the season, Hurts has a 156.3 passer rating when targeting Brown, and amongst all wideouts and tight ends in th league with at least 30 routes run against man coverage in 2024, no one averages more fantasy points per route run than Brown (1.15), per Fantasy Points’ Data Suite.