Welcome to the Fantasy Football Laboratory here at Fantasy In Frames!
Welcome to the Fantasy Football Laboratory here at Fantasy In Frames! I’m no doctor, nor a scientist in the traditional sense, but I love getting into the numbers and uncovering key insights to help you win your fantasy football leagues! Since we all are keeping our eyes on the prize, check out all the great content here at Fantasy In Frames, but each week, make a quick stop to the lab to check out some of this week’s case studies. Today, we are going to take a deep look at why the [fantasy] tides are turning for Baltimore tight end Mark Andrews.
Without further ado, let’s head into the lab!
Case Study: Can Fantasy Managers Trust Mark Andrews Moving Forward?
Trust is going to be a tricky word for Andrews given how the season has gone thus far. However, I’ll say this, fantasy managers should be optimistic, and things are pointing in the right direction. He’s still not carrying an elite snap share, and has actually been out snapped by Isaiah Likely in all but two weeks this season, but he’s found the end zone three times over the last two weeks. Furthermore, he has at least four targets in each of the last three games, and there’s been a dramatic uptick in his yards per route run.
Weeks 1-4: 1.09 Y/RR
Weeks 5-7: 3.03 Y/RR
*Courtesy of Pro Football Focus
Baltimore doesn’t operate in a pass-heavy offense, so sheer volume likely won’t be in store for Andrews, but perhaps some effects from an offseason car crash lingered around a bit longer than some presumed it would. The last three weeks have been encouraging, and per Fantasy Points’ Data Suite, he’s the TE3 overall during this three week stretch, and the TE5 in fantasy points per game.
The tide is turning for Andrews, and given the state of affairs at the tight end position, he needs to be on a roster, preferably yours. Even if you have a rock-solid, reliable starting tight end, Andrews is better on your bench than in another team’s starting lineup.
Other Notable Observations Around the NFL (courtesy of Pro Football Focus, Pro Football Reference, and Fantasy Points Data Suite)
- Bucky Irving is one of just four running backs with at least eight rushing attempts inside the five-yard line
- In the first game of the post-Amari Cooper era in Cleveland, while David Njoku led the team with 14 targets, Cedric Tillman had a 31.3 percent first read rate and held 36.7 percent share of the team’s air yards.
- DeAndre Hopkins was traded to the Kansas City Chiefs this week, but temper expectations a bit for fantasy. Sure, he had horrible QB play in Tennessee, but his 1.62 Y/RR would be his lowest in a season since 2016, and he’s not as much of a threat to get deep downfield like he was in his younger years. Expect him to be a low aDOT, possession receiver, likely getting a good number of snaps from the slot.
Cookin’ Up Something For Week 8
While we do a good bit of looking back while in the lab, we’ll also do a very, very brief look ahead to the upcoming week to help you as you head into the week ahead. After crunching some numbers, I’m here to say:
Don’t sit C.J. Stroud this week. Do not do it. After showing frustration last week in a bad performance against the Colts, he’s been adamant in press conferences this week that the offense (and offensive line) will be better in Week 8, and it’s a great matchup. The Colts have allowed the 10th-most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks this season, and Stroud is on the best side of his splits for his young career:
Stroud vs. IND (3 games): 294.0 YPG, 6:0 TD/INT ratio
Stroud at home (11 games): 311.1 YPG, 21:5 TD/INT ratio
Stroud vs. AFC South (7 Games): 289.1 YPG, 13:0 TD/INT ratio