Welcome to the Fantasy Football Laboratory here at Fantasy In Frames!
Welcome to the Fantasy Football Laboratory here at Fantasy In Frames! I’m no doctor, nor a scientist in the traditional sense, but I love getting into the numbers and uncovering key insights to help you win your fantasy football leagues! Since we all are keeping our eyes on the prize, check out all the great content here at Fantasy In Frames, but each week, make a quick stop to the lab to check out some of this week’s case studies. Today, we are going to take a deep look at why the time is now to trade for Joe Mixon, because his price is only going to get higher.
Without further ado, let’s head into the lab!
Case Study: Fantasy Managers Should Buy High on Joe Mixon
Yes. If you can acquire Joe Mixon, you do it. He was on a bit of a snap count in his first game back since injuring his ankle, and he totaled 132 yards and two scores on 13 carries and two receptions. He’s a workhorse back and is the clear-cut lead back for a Houston Texans offense that is willing to give Mixon a ton of work. Beyond that, Bobby Slowik has made a small switch that will benefit Mixon.
Per Fantasy Points’ Data Suite,, back in Week 1, 27 of his 30 carries were a zone concept run, but in Mixon’s Week 6 return, only four of his 13 carries were a zone concept. Slowik has gotten a bit creative to try to help spark the run game, and while a long run in Week 6 certainly helped, Mixon has the fourth-highest YPC on man/gap concept runs this season. This is notable because if you recall my redraft target profile in Mixon before the season started, I highlighted a potential concern was Mixon’s efficiency in a zone-heavy scheme, as you can see in the image below from the aforementioned article:
Mixon is averaging 5.50 YPC this season, and even if you remove his 59-yard run against New England, he’s still averaging 4.45 YPC. The workload is there, and he’s the lead back in a good Houston offense with a favorable fantasy schedule for running backs moving forward.
Trade for Mixon until the price becomes even higher.
Other Notable Observations Around the NFL (courtesy of Pro Football Focus, Pro Football Reference, and Fantasy Points Data Suite)
- Of running backs with at least 60 rushing attempts on the season, no player has a lower explosive run rate than Kyren Williams (1.1%).
- Brock Bowers has more games with a 23+ percent target share than games he does not.
- Of quarterbacks with at least 100 drop backs, Patrick Mahomes has the lowest average depth of target (aDOT) in the NFL at 5.2 yards.
- Kyler Murray (0.55) has a lower fantasy points per drop back number than Sam Darnold (0.56) and Baker Mayfield (0.63).
Cookin’ Up Something For Week 7
While we do a good bit of looking back while in the lab, we’ll also do a very, very brief look ahead to the upcoming week to help you as you head into the week ahead. After crunching some numbers, I’m here to say:
Sam Darnold is in store for a big week. It’s tough to run on Detroit, and they are a pass-funnel defense. Detroit likes to play man coverage, and Darnold has the second-highest fantasy points per drop back against man coverage this season, per Fantasy Points’ Data Suite. The matchups between Detroit and Minnesota have been shootouts recently, and coming off the bye week, I expect Darnold to start a new touchdown streak. Prior to his touchdown-less day against the Jets, Darnold had multiple touchdown passes in each of the first four games of the season. I like the Vikings offense to move the ball against Detroit, en route to Darnold posting a big stat line, something to the tune of 275+ yards and 2+ passing scores.
