Welcome to the Fantasy Football Laboratory here at Fantasy In Frames!
Welcome to the Fantasy Football Laboratory here at Fantasy In Frames! I’m no doctor, nor a scientist in the traditional sense, but I love getting into the numbers and uncovering key insights to help you win your fantasy football leagues! Since we all are keeping our eyes on the prize, check out all the great content here at Fantasy In Frames, but each week, make a quick stop to the lab to check out some of this week’s case studies. Today, we are going to take a deep look at why things will get better for Josh Jacobs, and some other notable observations.
Without further ado, let’s head into the lab!
Case Study: Josh Jacobs Is No Better Than a Back-End RB2 This Year
Through the first five weeks of the season, Jacobs is the RB28 in fantasy points per game, and the RB23 in terms of total fantasy points. So, he’s been more of a RB3 than a RB2 thus far. However, he’s one of just five running backs on the year to have at least 90 rushing attempts, and his 4.47 yards per carry and 80.4 rushing yards per game isn’t too shabby! Right now, what’s holding him back is that he has just one rushing touchdown. The other four guys that have at least 90 rushing attempts all have at least three rushing scores, and Jacobs is one of just two RBs to have one or fewer rushing touchdowns on at least 72 carries.
While the Packers do have the third-highest rush rate in the league, they tend to get a bit pass-happy the closer they get to the red zone. When they do run it, Jacobs has an elite usage rate in the red zone:
- 85.7% of carries inside the 5-yard line
- 88.9% percent of carries inside the 10-yard line
- 70% percent of carries inside the 20-yard line
Per Pro Football Focus’ expected statistics, they have Jacobs at 3 expected rushing touchdowns. If you add those two touchdowns and 12 fantasy points to Jacobs’ total for the year, he moves up into the back-end RB1 range.
Jacobs is the lead back in an elite offense, and while efficiency may not be his friend, volume will be there, and the touchdowns will come. He’ll end the year closer to an RB1 than an RB3, and if you can “buy low” on Jacobs right now, do it.
Other Notable Observations Around the NFL (courtesy of Pro Football Focus, Pro Football Reference, and Fantasy Points Data Suite)
- Baker Mayfield is the QB3 in fantasy points per game.
- In quarters 2-4 of Sunday’s game, Stefon Diggs served as the WR1 for the Texans after Nico Collins’ departure, posting a 35 percent first read rate, and 24.2 percent target share.
- If we remove the first two games of the year, Ladd McConkey leads the Chargers with a 39.4 percent first read rate (Quentin Johnston at 21.2%, but in Weeks 1&2, Johnston was at 38.5%)
Cookin’ Up Something For Week 6
While we do a good bit of looking back while in the lab, we’ll also do a very, very brief look ahead to the upcoming week to help you as you head into the week ahead. After crunching some numbers, I’m here to say:
Ladd McConkey will score a touchdown in Week 6. He’s scored in both home games this year, and operating out of the slot, he’ll avoid the lockdown coverage of Patrick Surtain. Teams won’t throw the ball wherever Surtain is, and McConkey shouldn’t see much of him at all. McConkey had eight receptions on 13 targets in the two games leading up to Los Angeles’ bye, and over those two weeks, he was the go-to guy for Justin Herbert. Denver likes to play a lot of man, and McConkey has put up 0.84 fantasy points per route run against man coverage this year, per Fantasy Points Data Suite. For a frame of reference, that’s the sixth-best mark in the league, and just behind Dallas’ superstar wideout CeeDee Lamb.