The Fantasy Football Laboratory: Week 5 (2024)
Welcome to the Fantasy Football Laboratory here at Fantasy In Frames!
Welcome to the Fantasy Football Laboratory here at Fantasy In Frames! I’m no doctor, nor a scientist in the traditional sense, but I love getting into the numbers and uncovering key insights to help you win your fantasy football leagues! Since we all are keeping our eyes on the prize, check out all the great content here at Fantasy In Frames, but each week, make a quick stop to the lab to check out some of this week’s case studies. Today, we are going to take a deep look at Deshaun Watson’s early season struggles, and highlight how Aaron Jones could be even better for fantasy football managers..
Without further ado, let’s head into the lab!
Case Study 1: There’s Hope for a Turnaround for Deshaun Watson
Through the first four weeks, Watson has completed just 61.5 percent of his passes with a 4:3 TD/INT ratio. He’s holding onto the ball forever at times, which likely will come at no surprise that amongst all QB’s in the NFL, he’s in the bottom three for allowed pressures, per Pro Football Focus. Furthermore, he’s not really pushing the ball downfield, nothing like he did back when he was a member of the Houston Texans. For his career, he’s posted 7.8 yards per attempt and a 9.1 average depth of target (aDOT), per PFF. This year, his 4.9 yards per attempt and 6.8 aDOT would easily be the lowest numbers of his career!
Not only has he yet to throw for more than 200 yards in a game this season, but his 17-game pace comes out to a putrid 3,090 yards and 17 passing scores. He is pacing for about 500 yards on the ground, which would be the second-most in his entire career, but Watson looks nothing like the fantasy star he was during his time with the Texans. In shallower 1QB leagues, Watson belongs on the waiver wire. He’s just not the same guy.
Case Study 2: Aaron Jones Will End the Season as a Top-8 Running Back
Jones is currently the RB6 in PPR formats, and there’s a legitimate case to be made that he can end the year as a top-8 fantasy running back. The Minnesota offense looks like a juggernaut at the moment, and even if a bit of regression hits, so long as the big uglies up front stay healthy, he’s running behind one of the best run blocking units in the NFL. Jones is thriving on zone concept runs, as no running back with at least 15 rushing attempts on a zone concept has a higher YPC than Jones (6.36). He has just one rushing touchdown on the year, and is the RB6. Let that sink in.
Lastly, guess who leads the Vikings in red zone targets? Yes, it’s Jones! He’s targeted more in the red zone than Justin Jefferson! Aside from his 80.3 yards per game on the ground this season, he’s averaging four receptions for 35.8 yards per game through the first four weeks, and is on pace for 68 receptions, 608 yards, and four touchdowns through the air.
He’s on an excellent pace right now and has elite usage, and if he progresses to the mean in terms of touchdowns, he’s going to take off.
Verdict: Jones WILL be a top-8 running back in PPR formats this year.
Other Notable Observations Around the NFL (courtesy of Pro Football Focus, Pro Football Reference, and Fantasy Points Data Suite)
- Aaron Jones has more red zone targets than Justin Jefferson, and he’s tied for the most red zone receptions in the entire NFL.
- Kenneth Walker’s 15.6 percent explosive run rate is the best in the NFL amongst RBs with at least 25 rushing attempts. The next closest is Jonathan Taylor at 9.7%.
- Joe Burrow leads the league in red zone pass attempts (25), but has completed just 36 percent of his passes in the red zone.
- Tony Pollard is the RB11 in terms of expected fantasy points.
Cookin’ Up Something For Week 5
While we do a good bit of looking back while in the lab, we’ll also do a very, very brief look ahead to the upcoming week to help you as you head into the week ahead. After crunching some numbers, I’m here to say:
Keon Coleman’s coming out party is happening in Week 5. While Houston possesses some star power in its secondary, opposing wide receivers have gotten to them a bit, most notably Brian Thomas Jr. in Week 4. Khalil Shakir has missed practice time this week, and Coleman was on the field at a far more lucrative rate in Week 4 than he was in Week 3. The rookie’s numbers last week would have been better if he hauled in a deep pass from Josh Allen, but alas, he didn’t, but the opportunities will be there. On more than one occasion, receivers have gotten behind the Houston defense, and Coleman could be the latest one to do so. Week 5 will be Coleman’s biggest fantasy day of the season thus far as he goes for 15+ PPR points. Book it!