Welcome to the Fantasy Football Laboratory here at Fantasy In Frames!
Welcome to the Fantasy Football Laboratory here at Fantasy In Frames! I’m no doctor, nor a scientist in the traditional sense, but I love getting into the numbers and uncovering key insights to help you win your fantasy football leagues! Since we all are keeping our eyes on the prize, check out all the great content here at Fantasy In Frames, but every Friday, make a quick stop to the lab to check out some of this week’s case studies. Today, we are going to take a deep look at a sell-high candidate on the Chargers, as well as a potential notable running back losing their starting job.
Without further ado, let’s head into the lab!
Case Study 1: Fantasy Managers Should Sell High on Quentin Johnston
Johnston has had quite the turnaround, and he’s a top-20 WR in PPR formats at this juncture. However, his touchdown last week came on a busted coverage, and outside of that, he had just one other catch in that game. Through the first three weeks of the season, the Chargers are not only one of the most run-heavy teams, but they are also playing at one of the slowest paces in the league. Per Pro Football Focus, Quentin Johnson ranks 22nd in fantasy points per game at 13.8, but if you like expected metrics, his 9.3 expected fantasy points per game is outside the top 50.
Johnston has some impressive yards per route run and aDOT metrics, but outside of the touchdowns, he hasn’t surpassed 55 yards in a game this season, and again, it’s a slow, run-heavy offense, and that doesn’t typically indicate sustained future success.
Verdict: Sell-high
Case Study 2: D’Andre Swift Will Be Off Most Fantasy Rosters In Three Weeks
A couple of weeks ago, I would have said no way. However, through the first three weeks of the season, it’s been tough sledding for Swift. Despite seeing at least 10 carries in each of the team’s first three games, he’s averaged under two yards per carry, and his season-high in rushing yards came in Week 1 against the Titans when he ran for 30 yards. The Bears’ offensive line does rank in the bottom-third of the league in run blocking, per Pro Football Focus, but Swift isn’t making defenders miss and has the third-lowest elusive grade (15.8) amongst running backs with at least 20 carries.
Also, the Bears are well aware of Swift’s struggles, and the snap counts are reflecting that:
- Swift: 70%, 66%, 53%
- Khalil Herbert: 11%, 9%, 10%
- Roschon Johnson: Inactive, 0%, 37%
By snap count, yes, Swift is still the leader, but Johnson and Herbert combined for 12 carries last week, and Johnson actually had 13 opportunities last week (8 carries and 5 targets). The team has said that Johnson has earned more opportunities, and if he can provide a spark for this Chicago offense, there will be a changing of the guard in the Chicago backfield.
Swift couldn’t get it done against a putrid Indianapolis run defense, and another bad performance or two will make him droppable, especially in shallower leagues.
Other Notable Observations Around the NFL (courtesy of Pro Football Focus and Fantasy Points Data Suite)
- Jayden Daniels is averaging more fantasy points per dropback (0.68) than Lamar Jackson (0.67) and Jalen Hurts (0.50).
- Of wide receivers with at least 10 targets on the year, Alec Pierce (4.83) and Marvin Harrison Jr. (4.78) lead the way in fantasy points per touch.
- As highlighted above, Roschon Johnson had eight carries and five targets last week, and appears to be the best option in the Chicago backfield.
- Total volume and a nose for the end zone is saving Kyren Williams right now. Otherwise, he’s averaging just three yards per carry, and has zero runs of 15+ yards.
Cookin’ Up Something For Week 4
While we do a good bit of looking back while in the lab, we’ll also do a very, very brief look ahead to the upcoming week to help you as you head into the week ahead. After crunching some numbers, I’m here to say:
Nico Collins will post 20+ fantasy points in PPR leagues this week. The Jaguars have allowed the eighth-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers this season, not to mention the sixth-most receiving yards. For his young career, C.J. Stroud has an 18:4 TD/INT ratio at home, as well as averaging over 300 passing yards per game. Furthermore, in six career games against AFC South opponents, Stroud has completed just under 71 percent of his passes, while posting a 11:0 TD/INT ratio. Like Stroud, Collins’ numbers have been better at home, and since the beginning of last season, Collins is averaging 94.6 receiving yards per game at NRG Stadium, and he’s found the end zone a total of eight times. The stars are aligning for a massive fantasy day for Houston’s No. 1 receiver.