Welcome to the Fantasy Football Laboratory here at Fantasy In Frames!
Welcome to the Fantasy Football Laboratory here at Fantasy In Frames! I’m no doctor, nor a scientist in the traditional sense, but I love getting into the numbers and uncovering key insights to help you win your fantasy football leagues! Since we all are keeping our eyes on the prize, check out all the great content here at Fantasy In Frames, but every Friday, make a quick stop to the lab to check out some of this week’s case studies. Today, we are going to take a deep look into the AFC South for our two case studies.
Without further ado, let’s head into the lab!
Case Study 1: Trevor Lawrence is set for a QB1 season
Lawrence may only have one touchdown and a 51 percent completion rate, but there’s a lot to like. His 11.9 average depth of target (aDOT) would be a career best, and he has a healthy stable of weapons at his disposal. Furthermore, sure, his completion percentage is subpar, but his adjusted completion percentage sits at 67.4 percent, which is far better, albeit still amongst the lowest in the league. He’s opened the 2024 campaign with matchups against Miami and Cleveland, both of which have some talent on the defensive side of the ball.
From a fantasy perspective, the more concerning metric here is the dearth of rushing attempts. He’s averaged at least 3.6 rushes per game in each of his first three professional seasons, but through the first two games of 2024, he’s at just 1.5 attempts per game, and has had no designed runs called! If Lawrence doesn’t run, it’s going to be a tall task for him to reach QB1 status, something he has done in each of the past two seasons.
Fortunately, the Jacksonville secondary isn’t very good, so Jacksonville could find themselves in some shootouts. However, Lawrence seems to be on the outside looking in when it comes to a third straight QB1 season.
Case Study 2: Calvin Ridley is a Reliable WR2 Each Week
Reliable is a bit of a tricky word here, because the usage has been solid, but Will Levis will always keep things interesting, to say the least. Through the first two weeks, Ridley leads the Titans in targets, receptions, and yards, and it’s clear that he’s the alpha in this passing attack. Now, a healthy (or healthier) DeAndre Hopkins could have something to say about that, but right now, it’s Ridley, and then everyone else.
Take a look at some of the noticeable numbers for Ridley through the first two weeks, courtesy of Fantasy Points Data Suite:
- Team-high 60% of air yards (best in NFL)
- Team- high 2.12 yards per route run
- Team-high 28.3 percent first read rate
There is likely to be some inconsistent performances week-to-week with Ridley, but the usage is there, and Tennessee figures to be playing a lot of close games. However, with all that said, I’m not going to argue with the early returns, and trust Ridley as a WR2.
Other Notable Observations Around the NFL (courtesy of Pro Football Focus and Fantasy Points Data Suite)
- Quentin Johnston’s first read rate of 38.5 percent is the third-highest in the NFL. However, 27.3 percent of his targets have come from designed plays (like screens).
- Nico Collins has 46.5 percent of the air yards for the Texans. The next closest is Tank Dell at 30.6 percent, and Stefon Diggs is down at 12.3 percent.
- On 156 rushing attempts last season, Rhamondre Stevenson forced 30 missed tackles. He’s already at 13 missed tackles on just 46 carries this year, and his 94.2 elusive rating (7th-best amongst RBs with at least 20 carries) would be a career high by a wide margin.
Cookin’ Up Something For Week 3
While we do a good bit of looking back while in the lab, we’ll also do a very, very brief look ahead to the upcoming week to help you as you head into the week ahead. After crunching some numbers, I’m here to say:
Brandon Aiyuk is going for 80+ yards and a TD this week. The Los Angeles Rams are all banged up, and their secondary has been underwhelming through the first two weeks of the season, allowing the 11th-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. Furthermore, they are one of just six teams to have allowed at least three receiving scores to the position, and this is the perfect opportunity for the Deebo Samuel-less 49ers to get Aiyuk back on track.
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