Welcome to the Fantasy Football Laboratory here at Fantasy In Frames!
Welcome to the Fantasy Football Laboratory here at Fantasy In Frames! I’m no doctor nor a scientist in the traditional sense, but I love getting into the numbers and uncovering key insights to help you win your fantasy football leagues! Since we all are keeping our eyes on the prize, check out all the great content here at Fantasy In Frames, but every Thursday, make a quick stop to the lab to check out some of this week’s case studies from Week 1 numbers, and a quick look ahead to Week 2 action! This week, you’ll find two case studies about some AFC pass catchers.
Without further ado, let’s head into the lab!
Case Study 1: Is Tank Dell an Afterthought in the Houston Offense?
Compared to Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs, Tank Dell was quiet in Week 1, catching just three of his seven targets for 40 yards through the air and handling two carries for 19 yards on the ground. Here’s the thing. He’s not an afterthought whatsoever, and while Diggs got the touchdowns, Dell was right on par with the other two in terms of routes run, and he commanded 46 percent of the team’s air yards in its Week 1 win against the Colts.
Stefon Diggs posted a 1.3 average depth of target, per Fantasy Points, while Dell was at 16.3. Furthermore, Dell’s first read percentage (23.8%) was nearly five percentage points higher than Diggs’ (19%), and trailed only Collins (28.6%).
Do what you want with expected fantasy points, but Dell actually lead the Texans’ receivers in expected fantasy points (15.3) in that Week 1 matchup. Again, real fantasy points are more than those of the expected variety, but one quiet week from Dell in Diggs’ debut shouldn’t overshadow the upside the second-year receiver has in this electric offense.
Case Study 2: Isaiah Likely is Set to Breakout in 2024
I won’t sugarcoat it. Week 1 was incredibly promising. Per Pro Football Focus, Likely was in the top five in total route runs and yards per route run (3.17) at the tight end position. While his percentage of snaps taken in the slot was lower than in years past, when he did go into the slot, he was peppered with targets. Seven of his 12 targets came when he lined up out of the slot, and he caught four of them for 71 yards and a touchdown. Furthermore, his 71 yards out of the slot led all tight ends in Week 1, and the next closest was Hayden Hurst with 33 yards!
Also, when looking at the first read percentage over at Fantasy Points Data Suite, we see something incredibly exciting about Likely’s future. The first read percentage basically tells us about the team’s passing plays, how often the player is the first read and designed targets. Well, Likely’s 34.8 percent mark in this category was the highest on the Baltimore Ravens, the best amongst all tight ends across the National Football League, and 12th-best overall! The Ravens have no choice but to continue to play a lot of 2-TE sets, and Likely is going to be a valuable part of the passing attack because they can do so much with him and move him wherever they deem necessary.
Verdict: Likely will be a top-10 tight end in fantasy football this year.
Other Notable Observations Around the NFL
- Only 11 of Jayden Daniels’ 88 rushing yards came on designed runs, per Pro Football Focus.
- Evan Engram posted a 0.26 yards per route run metric in Week 1. In 2023, he was at 1.56, and he had only ever been below 1.00 once in his career (0.89 in 2021).
- Kyren Williams handled 91 percent of the offensive snaps for the Rams, including all but two carries, while Blake Corum only appeared on special teams.
Cookin’ Up Something For Week 2
While we do a good bit of looking back while in the lab, we’ll also do a very, very brief look ahead to the upcoming week to help you as you head into the week ahead. After crunching some numbers, I’m here to say:
It’s a Derrick Henry week. The Raiders were gashed on the ground last week, to the tune of 6.52 yards per carry and the ninth-highest explosive run rate allowed, per Fantasypoints.com. Baltimore is the favorite in this game and should be playing with the lead, and despite a questionable offensive line at the moment, Henry should rumble for 80+ yards and at least one touchdown.