The Fantasy Football Laboratory: Week 17 (2024)
Welcome to the Fantasy Football Laboratory here at Fantasy In Frames!
Welcome to the Fantasy Football Laboratory here at Fantasy In Frames! I’m no doctor, nor a scientist in the traditional sense, but I love getting into the numbers and uncovering key insights to help you win your fantasy football leagues! Since we all are keeping our eyes on the prize, check out all the great content here at Fantasy In Frames, but each week, make a quick stop to the lab to check out some of this week’s case studies. Today, we are going to take a deep look at why Breece Hall is back in the elite RB territory, and how Braelon Allen is no longer his top handcuff for 2024.
Case Study: Braelon Allen is No Longer a Threat to Breece Hall’s Workload
I believe this is the case, yes. Allen has played in under 20 percent of the snaps the last two weeks, and while Isaiah Davis has been a bit more involved, it’s totally Hall’s backfield. After missing Week 14’s game, Hall has returned the last two weeks to handle 23 carries, and put up 13.2 expected fantasy points per game, which is 22nd in the NFL over the last two weeks, per Fantasy Points’ Data Suite. Hall also has caught seven passes over the last two weeks, and the Jets figure to be playing from behind once again this week. Buffalo has given up some yards on the ground this season, and the role for Braelon Allen is diminishing.
Over the last two weeks, Allen has mustered just 2.50 yards per carry and a 75 percent stuff rate, per Fantasy Points’ Data Suite, which is not good. At this point, Isaiah Davis is the RB2 for the New York Jets, so those still playing for something don’t really need to consider Allen the handcuff at this juncture. Breece Hall is an elite play this weekend against Buffalo, and Davis is the next back for the Jets, not Allen.
Other Notable Observations Around the NFL (courtesy of Pro Football Focus, Pro Football Reference, and Fantasy Points Data Suite)
- In Quarters 2-4 of Week 16, the Eagles had a 52.9 percent pass rate. In Weeks 12-15, they only had a 44.3 percent pass rate. Of course, game script/flow had something to do with it, but they seem to be content with Kenny Pickett airing it out a bit.
- In Weeks 13-16, Aaron Rodgers is 6th in passing yards per game, and has a higher fantasy points per dropback (0.47) than Bo Nix (0.44), Justin Herbert (0.44), and Kyler Murray (0.41) during this four week stretch.
- In the same parameters mentioned above, Tyrone Tracy is 11th amongst running backs in expected fantasy points per game, while handling a 12.1 percent target share.
Cookin’ Up Something For Week 17
While we do a good bit of looking back while in the lab, we’ll also do a very, very brief look ahead to the upcoming week to help you as you head into the week ahead. After crunching some numbers, I’m here to say:
Start A.J. Brown with confidence. In the final three quarters of Sunday’s game against Washington, Brown helped a 45 percent target share, 59 percent of the team’s air yards and he was the first read two-thirds of the time, per Fantasy Points’ Data Suite. Kenny Pickett will get him the football, and Dallas has allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to receivers over the last four weeks. Do not be afraid of Brown without Jalen Hurts in Week 17. Deploy him with confidence and win your league’s title!