Welcome to the Fantasy Football Laboratory here at Fantasy In Frames!
Welcome to the Fantasy Football Laboratory here at Fantasy In Frames! I’m no doctor, nor a scientist in the traditional sense, but I love getting into the numbers and uncovering key insights to help you win your fantasy football leagues! Since we all are keeping our eyes on the prize, check out all the great content here at Fantasy In Frames, but each week, make a quick stop to the lab to check out some of this week’s case studies. Today, we are going to take a deep look at why C.J. Stroud can be a QB1 through the fantasy football playoffs.
Case Study: C.J. Stroud Can be a Difference Maker in the Fantasy Football Playoffs
For those of us who drafted Stroud, it hasn’t quite been the year we had hoped. Stroud has fallen short of expectations, dealt with numerous injuries to his receiving core, and the offensive line has massively underwhelmed. However, Houston finally had its bye, and I believe with the extra time, they can fix some of the schematic issues that have plagued the offense.
Furthermore, the offensive line is slowly but surely starting to play a little better. See the numbers below over the last four weeks:
| Average Time to Pressure | % of Dropbacks under pressure | |
| Weeks 1-9 | 2.50 | 41.5% |
| Weeks 10-13 | 2.80 | 26.6% |
*Courtesy of Fantasy Points’ Data Suite
I’m not saying those two statistics are the end all be all, but Stroud is starting to get more protection, and that should lend itself to good results. When kept clean this year, per Pro Football Focus (PFF), Stroud has completed just under 70 percent of his passes and 7.7 yards per attempt. It likely goes without saying that those numbers are far better than when he’s been under duress.
Here is Stroud’s schedule in the fantasy football playoffs: vs. Miami, @ Kansas City, vs. Baltimore
Miami and Kansas City second and third in the NFL over the last six weeks in terms of pass rate over expectation (Houston is 6th), per Fantasy Points’ Data Suite. Baltimore’s secondary has been picked on for a good chunk of the season, and Houston has enough weapons to attack that secondary in a game that should see Houston be pretty pass-happy.
Coming off a bye, the team is hopefully rested and ready to play some meaningful games, and Stroud gets two games at home in the fantasy football playoffs. Stroud has thrived at home in his young career, and while he’s been more of a QB2 for most of the season, from Weeks 15-17, I see him as more of a back-end QB1. You may have better options and not be in a position to have to consider Stroud, but if you have stuck it out with Stroud, your patience just might be rewarded when it matters most.
Other Notable Observations Around the NFL (courtesy of Pro Football Focus, Pro Football Reference, and Fantasy Points Data Suite)
- Tua Tagovailoa has 36+ pass attempts in four straight games, and Miami is tied for the league lead in pass rate over expectation (11.9%) during that stretch.
- Rico Dowdle is one of just six running backs to have handled at least 70 percent of the team’s carries over the last two weeks.
- Trey McBride has the fourth-highest first read rate in the NFL over the last six weeks.
- David Njoku is 12th in expected fantasy points per game over the last six weeks.
Cookin’ Up Something For Week 15
While we do a good bit of looking back while in the lab, we’ll also do a very, very brief look ahead to the upcoming week to help you as you head into the week ahead. After crunching some numbers, I’m here to say:
Chuba Hubbard scores 20+ fantasy points (PPR) against Dallas. With no Jonathan Brooks in the picture, Hubbard will see elite usage against a Dallas defense that has been struggling of late. They’ve also really struggled with running backs out of the backfield, and in the five games Hubbard has played at least 80 percent of the snaps, he’s seen at least five targets in all but one of them. The Cowboys have allowed the sixth-highest explosive run rate over the last six weeks, and Hubbard is pacing for 25-30 touches in this game. Expect a big day from Hubbard to say the least.
