Welcome to the Fantasy Football Laboratory here at Fantasy In Frames!
Welcome to the Fantasy Football Laboratory here at Fantasy In Frames! I’m no doctor, nor a scientist in the traditional sense, but I love getting into the numbers and uncovering key insights to help you win your fantasy football leagues! Since we all are keeping our eyes on the prize, check out all the great content here at Fantasy In Frames, but each week, make a quick stop to the lab to check out some of this week’s case studies. Today, we are going to take a deep look at why you can trust Bo Nix in the fantasy playoffs.
Case Study: Can I REALLY Trust Bo Nix as My Starting QB in the Fantasy Playoffs?
You absolutely can, and honestly, you should. He’s been great, we all know that, but take a look at his matchups the next couple weeks:
Colts. Chargers. Bengals (Week 17).
Sure, the Chargers matchup could be a bit tough, but the other two games are juicy from a fantasy perspective. Furthermore, take a look at Nix’s ranks in a couple of categories over the last six weeks, per Fantasy Points’ Data Suite:
- 6th in passing yards per game
- 6th in passing TDs (12:3 TD/INT ratio)
- 8th in deep throw rate
- 7th in fantasy points per dropback
- 6th in fantasy points per game
| Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE) | Pass Rate (neutral) | |
| Weeks 1-7 | 2.1% | 58.3% |
| Weeks 8-14 | 4.7% | 62.8% |
Sean Payton has taken the training wheels off, and Nix is operating efficiently and effectively in this Denver offense. The rookie signal caller has multiple touchdowns in three of his last four games, posting a 9:2 TD/INT ratio during that span, and while his rushing numbers are down of late, he has a healthy 304 total yards on the ground this season with four rushing touchdowns. Despite what you thought of Nix after 14 years of college football at Auburn and Oregon, it’s time to realize that he’s a QB1 right now in fantasy football, and should be confidently played as such.
Other Notable Observations Around the NFL (courtesy of Pro Football Focus, Pro Football Reference, and Fantasy Points Data Suite)
- Anthony Richardson is tied with Jordan Love for the second-most fantasy points per dropback dating back to Week 10, trailing only Jalen Hurts.
- Over the last four weeks, here are some notable rankings in terms of expected fantasy points per game at the running back position: Chase Brown (1st), Joe Mixon (3rd), Bucky Irving (12th), Najee Harris (14th), Breece Hall (22nd), Kyren Williams (29th), and Nick Chubb (35th)
- Brock Bowers is tied for the league lead with 12.7 targets per game over the last four weeks.
- Drake London has the second-highest target share in the NFL over the last four weeks at 31.5 percent, trailing only Puka Nacua (33.1%).
Cookin’ Up Something For Week 14
While we do a good bit of looking back while in the lab, we’ll also do a very, very brief look ahead to the upcoming week to help you as you head into the week ahead. After crunching some numbers, I’m here to say:
Russell Wilson is going for 250+ yards and 2 passing scores on Sunday. Cleveland plays a ton of man coverage, and Wilson is a top five quarterback in the NFL this year in terms of fantasy points per drop back against man coverage. With Jameis Winston at the helm for Cleveland, a shootout is always in store, and at the very least, he’ll keep things interesting. Yes, Wilson is coming off a massive game against Cincinnati, but even in the five games prior to that, he was averaging 242.4 passing yards per game with a 7:2 TD/INT ratio. Sunday will mark the third time this year that Wilson goes for 250+ and 2 scores.
