Welcome to the Fantasy Football Laboratory here at Fantasy In Frames!
Welcome to the Fantasy Football Laboratory here at Fantasy In Frames! I’m no doctor, nor a scientist in the traditional sense, but I love getting into the numbers and uncovering key insights to help you win your fantasy football leagues! Since we all are keeping our eyes on the prize, check out all the great content here at Fantasy In Frames, but each week, make a quick stop to the lab to check out some of this week’s case studies. Today, we are going to take a deep look at why Tony Pollard is set up to be a near-elite fantasy option the rest of the way.
Case Study: Tony Pollard will be a Top-12 Running Back the Rest of the Season
Confirmed. In Tony Pollard we trust from Week 13 on! He was great against Houston in Week 12, and the schedule the rest of the way is phenomenal for Pollard, with two matchups against Jacksonville and one against the Colts, amongst others. Over the last four weeks, here is the list of running backs with at least 60 percent of the team’s carries, 50+ percent route participation, and 14+ percent team target share:
Alvin Kamara, Christian McCaffrey, Bijan Robinson, Breece Hall, Chase Brown, Chuba Hubbard, and Pollard.
Pollard is seeing elite usage of late, he dominates the rushing attempts in the red zone, and the Titans have the eighth-highest run rate in neutral situations, per Fantasy Points’ Data Suite. The Titans are committed to Pollard as the lead back, and again, that juicy schedule the rest of the way is going to vault Pollard up the board in terms of fantasy points.
In PPR setups, he’s the RB19 in fantasy points per game over the last four weeks, but from Weeks 13 on, I expect him to get inside the top 12 at the position. Yes, I’m very bullish on Pollard moving forward.
Other Notable Observations Around the NFL (courtesy of Pro Football Focus, Pro Football Reference, and Fantasy Points Data Suite)
- Chase Brown is the RB2 in fantasy points per game over the last four weeks, and first
(!) in weighted opportunities per game. Don’t be overly concerned with Cincinnati saying they want to manage his workload a bit, as he can lose a handful of touches and still have an elite workload. - In Jameis Winston’s four starts, Jerry Jeudy leads Cleveland in air yards share, target percentage, and first read rate.
- Since Nico Collins returned from injury, Houston is second in the NFL in pass rate over expectation (12%). For comparison, in Weeks 6-10 when Collins was out, they ranked 21st (-2.2%).
Cookin’ Up Something For Week 13
While we do a good bit of looking back while in the lab, we’ll also do a very, very brief look ahead to the upcoming week to help you as you head into the week ahead. After crunching some numbers, I’m here to say:
Start Adonai Mitchell in Week 13. Josh Downs is expected to miss this weekend’s game, and the Patriots have allowed the ninth-most fantasy points per game to wideouts over the last four weeks. Albeit a smaller sample size, Mitchell has been great against man coverage this season, posting 3.50 yards per route run (best on team against man coverage) and 0.57 fantasy points per route run, per Fantasy Points’ Data Suite. When Mitchell plays, he commands the ball, and I expect that to be the case this weekend.
