The Fantasy Football Laboratory: Week 12 (2024)
Welcome to the Fantasy Football Laboratory here at Fantasy In Frames!
Welcome to the Fantasy Football Laboratory here at Fantasy In Frames! I’m no doctor, nor a scientist in the traditional sense, but I love getting into the numbers and uncovering key insights to help you win your fantasy football leagues! Since we all are keeping our eyes on the prize, check out all the great content here at Fantasy In Frames, but each week, make a quick stop to the lab to check out some of this week’s case studies. Today, we are going to take a deep look at why Rome Odunze will be the best fantasy wide receiver for the Chicago Bears the rest of the way.
Case Study: The Best Chicago WR Moving Forward is… Rome Odunze!
Confirmed. Odunze is the guy you want. Take a look at the numbers over the last four weeks, courtesy of Fantasy Points’ Data Suite, and tell me that Odunze isn’t the best, and most intriguing Chicago wide receiver moving forward:
| Air Yards Share | Target Share | Yards per Route Run | 1st Read Rate | Fantasy Points per Route Run | |
| Odunze | 40.3% | 23% | 1.77 | 27.3% | 0.32 |
| Keenan Allen | 33.3% | 23% | 1.12 | 29.9% | 0.22 |
| DJ Moore | 19.1% | 19.8% | 0.94 | 27.3% | 0.21 |
Moore was really only utilized around the line of scrimmage in the first game of the Thomas Brown era as the Offensive Coordinator in Chicago, and simply put, Odunze is more dynamic. Moore had a 0.9 average depth of target (aDOT), per Pro Football Focus, in Week 11, and over his last four games, Moore has a measly 0.90 yards per route run.
Odunze has a 17+ percent target share in each of his last four games, and while Allen is there to be a guy that moves the chain, it’s Odunze that adds some spark and dynamic playmaking ability. I don’t know if Moore is checked out, and it may not be fair to question that, but there’s no questioning that Odunze’s role in the offense is growing, and slowly but surely, he’s developing into an alpha WR1.on. He’s better on your bench as an upside QB2, then potentially becoming a starter for someone else in your league.
Other Notable Observations Around the NFL (courtesy of Pro Football Focus, Pro Football Reference, and Fantasy Points Data Suite)
- Over the last six weeks, Bo Nix leads all QBs in the NFL in dropped air yards (117).
- Speaking of Bo Nix, over the last six weeks, his 0.58 fantasy points per dropback is right on par with the likes of Josh Allen (0.59) and Joe Burrow (0.55).
- Of 53 running backs with at least 50 carries on the season, Joe Mixon is 44th in percentage of carries to go for 3+ yards. Volume is king!
- Brock Bowers is top-2 amongst tight ends in team’s air yards share, target share, and first read rate. Phenomenal.
Cookin’ Up Something For Week 12
While we do a good bit of looking back while in the lab, we’ll also do a very, very brief look ahead to the upcoming week to help you as you head into the week ahead. After crunching some numbers, I’m here to say:
C.J. Stroud breaks his streak of five games with one or fewer passing touchdowns. Yes, Stroud only has two touchdown passes over his last five games, Stroud feasts on divisional opponents. Say what you want about Stroud this year, but two of his three multi-touchdown games this year have come against divisional foes. Tennessee is pretty stout against the run, and I believe they’ll hold up better there than defending Stroud through the air. Give me 230+ yards and two passing scores for Stroud this week.