Welcome to the Fantasy Football Laboratory here at Fantasy In Frames!
Welcome to the Fantasy Football Laboratory here at Fantasy In Frames! I’m no doctor, nor a scientist in the traditional sense, but I love getting into the numbers and uncovering key insights to help you win your fantasy football leagues! Since we all are keeping our eyes on the prize, check out all the great content here at Fantasy In Frames, but each week, make a quick stop to the lab to check out some of this week’s case studies. Today, we are going to take a deep look at why Miami Dolphins tight end Jonnu Smith has a clear path to being a top 10 tight end in fantasy football in the second half of the season.
Case Study: Anthony Richardson is Worth a Roster Spot
Richardson got the starting job back after Joe Flacco went 0-2 the last two weeks. Richardson obviously had a less than stellar start to the season, completing just 44 percent of his passes with a 4:7 TD/INT ratio. He obviously can produce with his legs, and believe it or not, his 0.49 fantasy points per drop back is tied for 23rd in the NFL, tied with Justin Herbert, and just ahead of rookies Drake Maye and Bo Nix. Furthermore, if you look at who Richardson faced, he faced some incredibly stingy pass defenses to begin the year, including Houston (2x), Miami, Pittsburgh, and Chicago. Here is the completion percentage and league rank for the defenses Richardson has faced in 2024:
| Opponent | CMP% | League Rank |
| Houston | 54.4% | 1st |
| Green Bay | 64.9% | 14th |
| Chicago | 61.6% | 5th |
| Pittsburgh | 62.5% | 7th |
| Miami | 63.5% | 8th |
I’m not saying Richardson is a flawless passer, as he certainly has his issues, but I truly believe he’s closer to last year’s 59.5 percent completion percentage than the 44.4 percent he put forth thus far in 2024. He has plenty of good offensive weapons, and hopefully Shane Steichen can lean into what Richardson does well.
This guy could be a fantasy goldmine, and that’s exactly what many were hoping for heading into 2024. Rather than holding someone like a Jameis Winston, Aaron Rodgers, Derek Carr, or Caleb Williams as your backup QB, see if Richardson is on your waiver wire, and swing for upside with your QB2.
I expect Richardson to come out swinging and change the narrative that has developed about him, especially here in 2024. Despite his struggles, there are hardly any quarterbacks that possess his physical attributes and traits, and we’ve seen flashes of fantasy stardom from Richardson. He’s better on your bench as an upside QB2, then potentially becoming a starter for someone else in your league.
Other Notable Observations Around the NFL (courtesy of Pro Football Focus, Pro Football Reference, and Fantasy Points Data Suite)
- Trey McBride is the overall TE5 in PPR formats, despite having zero receiving touchdowns on the season, and he is 2nd-amongst tight ends with at least 50 routes run in yards per route run (2.32).
- Over the last four weeks, Kareem Hunt leads all running backs in expected fantasy points, while Chase Brown is fourth, and Tony Pollard is seventh.
- Of running backs with at least 30 carries over the last four weeks, James Conner (0.39), Bucky Irving (0.37), Najee Harris (0.30), and Kenneth Walker (0.27) lead the way in missed tackles forced per attempt.
- In the two full games Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp have played together (Weeks 8 & 10), it’s Nacua who leads the two in targets, receptions, yards per route run, first read rate, fantasy points per route run, expected fantasy points and overall fantasy points.
Cookin’ Up Something For Week 11
While we do a good bit of looking back while in the lab, we’ll also do a very, very brief look ahead to the upcoming week to help you as you head into the week ahead. After crunching some numbers, I’m here to say:
George Pickens’ streak of 70+ receiving yards will extend to four after this week. He draws a matchup against a very generous Baltimore secondary, and Pickens has seen elite usage since the switch to Russell Wilson. How elite you ask? How does a 24.4 percent target share and 34.5 percent first read rate sound? The stars are aligning here for Pickens in this divisional showdown.
